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Tour de France Tour de France 2024: Stage 19: Embrun - Isola 2000, 19/07 144.6k

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Yesterday showed us the importance of legs at this stage of a grand tour - the fastest rider on paper finishes 3rd in a 3 up sprint. Jonas might be the best climber in the world but he simply doesn’t have the legs at this stage of the race. If Visma do something today then Pogi will crush them on the final climb, Visma know it, Jonas knows it, we know it. There is no button you can press to suddenly have diamond legs.
The break will have the Carapaz, Hindley, Mas, S Yates, Healy, types in it. No one hiding is suddenly coming to the fore today. This is either a Pogi win or a break win, I genuinely cannot see any other scenario.
 
They can be cool, but the Muur de Huy effect often comes into play: Nobody feels like going into serious breakaways because of that steep climb at the end. So it will basically be a sprinter stage, just more for puncheurs than for heavy sprinters.
I hear ya but who are the Bala types in the peloton now? I’m not sure there are many teams who would control confident they have someone who can deliver on final wall
 
Pogačar doesn't really need to go on Bonette already though. Unless he senses that he can fully sink Vingegaard due to weakness!
Noone from the top GC will go full gas on Bonette.
Isola 2000 I've climbed several times to. It really is 1½ times l'Alpe d'Huez.
My input is only seen in relation to the indeed short stage distance.

But I think ASO might've had a starting point with logics about create tension - and that the last spark would have been punctured in Vingo's favor if he had been in 2023 shape and it had been a super-exhausting 1993 Serre-Sevaliers - Isola 2000 stage.

But now Vingo's power is clearly on the wane.
I'm pretty sure that in his current state, that an exhausting long 4 x HC climb stage would not benefit him today.
Today is more kind to Vingo.
Except for the finish climb, which can get really ugly for him if Pogi's instincts kick in early.
However, it may also be that Pogi takes pity and waits to attack within the last few kilometers. And then there still migt be Remco - though, in that case I see one from a breakaway winning the stage.

I'm not exactly expecting an epic stage I must say
Maybe with the exception of enjoying if Pogi really goes all out for an extra-terrestrial new Strava KOM on Isola 2000. But it's not about excitement.
 
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Boring tour all together. Too dominant by a guy that won the Giro with two fingers in the nose and make his competition in the TdF look like amateurs. It's the double GT success that makes me question the humanity and at such a level.

It's becoming tiresome to watch. And we all know how the story goes. When something looks too good, it usually is. Same goes for Jonas.

Pog too take charge here and will take 5 minutes on Remco. Jonas to explode and drop out of top 5.

Tour is done. Either way it has been an extremely boring.
I absolutely 100% disagree with this. Just because the time differences are big doesn't mean it is a boring race [just like all those GTs where they end up being close and there's a tension until the end, but nothing really remarkable ever happening - Tour 2017 comes to mind].

I'm not saying it was the best ever, but it was far from boring for me.
 
Can people here name two mountain stages that they would be happy with? Which combo of climbs would you like to see in the Alps??

I think Izoard, Vars, Allos, Pra Loup would be a good stage.
A stage that should have been, but was cancelled due to snowy conditions:
Starting at Bourg-Saint-Maurice then those climbs: Col d'Iseran (is it 2760m?) - Col du Telégraphe - Col Du Galibier - Mont Genevre - Sestrieres. Ended up as a 46k mountain sprint that year. But could take turn down Col Lauterets to l'Alpe d'Huez.
 
A stage that should have been, but was cancelled due to snowy conditions:
Starting at Bourg-Saint-Maurice then those climbs: Col d'Iseran (is it 2760m?) - Col du Telégraphe - Col Du Galibier - Mont Genevre - Sestrieres. Ended up as a 46k mountain sprint that year. But could take turn down Col Lauterets to l'Alpe d'Huez.
I find that Iseran doesn't link too well with other climbs..... ie there's about a 40-50km descent after it.
 
I absolutely 100% disagree with this. Just because the time differences are big doesn't mean it is a boring race [just like all those GTs where they end up being close and there's a tension until the end, but nothing really remarkable ever happening - Tour 2017 comes to mind].

I'm not saying it was the best ever, but it was far from boring for me.
I think it has been boring because what we all suspected pre race has come to fruition - I.e that Pogi’s main challengers have all suffered from a crash that put them behind where they wanted to be. Also Visma losing Kuss was a massive blow. Pogi’s main right hand men were fighting out the GC of the Tour de Suisse. Sprint stages have been awful imho. Gaviria is not even in great form and he has been going close in these sprints. No breakaways on sprint stages. Last year one of the best stages was the Asgreen stage win - we have had nothing like that this year.
 
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Am I the only one who thinks the break has a great chance today? Which team has the horses to control this. UAE, but with Yates and Wellins looking under the weather, it is looking more iffy. Visma, not convinced. Who rides the valleys?? If UAE want Pollit to do that they will have to ride the climbs pretty slowly, same with Visma for WVA and tratnik.
If EF have Healy and Carapaz in the break then someone like Healy could really smash the valley roads.
I think you are wrong when it comes to the break. If Vingegaard had a normal prep, this stage would 100% be made for him. Visma knows this is the last chance for them. High altitude, multiple long climbs, it's how they try to break Pogacar. So they are definitely going to try again, I expect them to already attack on Bonette.
 
UAE are not going to attack this stage from the gun but I think Visma know that the only way they really win this Tour is if Pogacar completely explodes from accumulated effort, so they do have reason to attack the race from the start.

Like PDB showed, the break has basically no chance if the peloton decides to make the race hard all day long.
 
17 and 18 are much more what general stage design should be. A big potential pot of winners and opportunities for a lot of riders.

If the bunch doesn't want to ride hard because of more harder days they don't have to, they can let the breaks actually race for more.

Nobody really wants stage design that is going to be an absolute snooze unless you get bailed out by the fairly unlikely chance of the right wind conditions at the right time.

Maybe it's just a bit of nostalgia creeping in but I feel like 10 years ago even the flatter days usually had some moments in them where a lighter sprinters team could put the hurt on for the heavy guys and make it a day to be raced and not a procession.
 
UAE are not going to attack this stage from the gun but I think Visma know that the only way they really win this Tour is if Pogacar completely explodes from accumulated effort, so they do have reason to attack the race from the start.

Like PDB showed, the break has basically no chance if the peloton decides to make the race hard all day long.
An attack on the Cime de la Bonette only makes sense, if you have a teammate at the front, who waits for you on the top and can lead you on his wheel to the final climb, so I expect both UAE and Visma to try to put riders in the break today...
 
Jumbo should try to do what Festina did on the Courchevel stage in 1997. Although the climbs are all different the stage innature was almost identical to today. Just as it was a long shot to crack Ullrich, it is a longshot to crack Pogacar. They did crack Pantani, though, so you never know.
But that was one of the best mountain stages of all time, still.

 
I think you are wrong when it comes to the break. If Vingegaard had a normal prep, this stage would 100% be made for him. Visma knows this is the last chance for them. High altitude, multiple long climbs, it's how they try to break Pogacar. So they are definitely going to try again, I expect them to already attack on Bonette.
VLAB doesn't have to win the stage, only try cracking Pog. They can let a break go.
 
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