Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 4: Pinerolo > Valloire, 139.6 km

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Is Ayuso playing the canny long game? Things that could happen in/by the 3rd week: Pog's Giro fatigue catches up to him; Vingo and Remco to drop off due to crashes and lack of training; Roglic to crash and lose time.
 
Congratulations to Tadej Pogačar for winning the stage in epic fashion.

UAE had everything under control and really did some damage, riding as a team. Now in my opinion they (Pogi) were aiming for a bit more, headwind and some team members not pacing high enough preventing from that to happen. Nonetheless Pogi did what he came for, by launching in the last km and Jonas and the rest shifting some time. Some teams, like Visma and Bora, really falling apart, question here being was it up to a point a tactical decision, as the script on what UAE plans to do wasn't exactly a top secret. Jonas in addition seems confident, that he will be able to respond going deeper in the race. Considering Remco is rather consistent so far and Rogla still alive and kicking. Ineos resolving the leadership questions, but i somehow feel that Rodríguez was the leader from the get go. In my opinion not only leaders but teams as a whole, their form to fluctuate through the race. It should be interesting to see on who profits from such power dynamics the most!
 
Almeida's getting angry with Ayuso was one of the biggest 'get out of jail' cards for Roglic I've ever seen.

He could have lost two minutes if Almeida had kept pushing.

That's not to say Ayuso wasn't to blame, it was just perfect timing for Roglic for that to happen right at that moment.
Roglic must have used up all his luck in 5 minutes. Landa riding like an idiot, saving Roglic' bacon when he was about to drop.
 
He was only 9 seconds off at the KOM, and lost by far most descending - predmoninatly on the easier high speed parts.

He definitely looked beat at the KOM though, but that might be from just giving everything to the KOM line, knowing a long freewheeling descent followed.
Except it wasn't a freewheeling descent by Tadej or the guys that caught up to Jonas. Tadej laid down power well past the KOM to get up to speed and then could recover. Another km of climbing would have only doubled the gap. Good tactical riding on Tadej's part.
 
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Congratulations to Tadej Pogačar for winning the stage in epic fashion.

UAE had everything under control and really did some damage, riding as a team. Now in my opinion they (Pogi) were aiming for a bit more, headwind and some team members not pacing high enough preventing from that to happen. Nonetheless Pogi did what he came for, by launching in the last km and Jonas and the rest shifting some time. Some teams, like Visma and Bora, really falling apart, question here being was it up to a point a tactical decision, as the script on what UAE plans to do wasn't exactly a top secret. Jonas in addition seems confident, that he will be able to respond going deeper in the race. Considering Remco is rather consistent so far and Rogla still alive and kicking. Ineos resolving the leadership questions, but i somehow feel that Rodríguez was the leader from the get go. In my opinion not only leaders but teams as a whole, their form to fluctuate through the race. It should be interesting to see on who profits from such power dynamics the most!
It would have been a bonus to fans if Bernal and Mateo had hung on, too. Having Ineos with several threats would have made it better for the other contenders. Stage 4 and every team pretty much know who their show ponies are for the time being.
 
I love Ayuso he's my new favorite rider who isn't a Basque classics rider

Main hopes for the rest of the race is Remco putting time into the guys on the wine stages, for a) making a "old school" GC battle where one of the guys is a great TTer but slightly less good in the mountains, and b) the comedy value of Belgian media hyperbolic praise
 
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Except it wasn't a freewheeling descent by Tadej or the guys that caught up to Jonas. Tadej laid down power well past the KOM to get up to speed and then could recover. Another km of climbing would have only doubled the gap. Good tactical riding on Tadej's part.
Not necessarily, it could happened like Joux plane and get caught, even if Vingegaard is not yet in peak shape.

Pogacar attacked at the right time, it was Puy de dome and Col du grand colombier all over again. Attacking in the last 1/1.5 km to take advantage of his explosiveness and then being able to get a small gap.

Pogacar has been doing a lot of this against Vingegaard, and almost turning into a mountain sprinter, he is smart since it's working, because he has more explosiveness than Vingegaard.

In last part of descent the weight played a big role plus the big headwind, and that turned into an agony to light guys like Vingegaard, who is just 58 kg.

At the moment Pogacar only got 8 s on Vingegaard and 23 s on Remco evenepoel in terms of climbing, when both are not yet at 100%.

The Tour will be funny in the last week.
 
So it went pretty much as expected and Pogi waited because of the headwind to attack. Ayuso was drifting to the back on stage 1, did nothing on stage 2 and now again sitting at the back. Is he sick or is this plain ol' f**king about?

Madiot was maybe right - it's all over, barring an accident.
 
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It would have been a bonus to fans if Bernal and Mateo had hung on, too. Having Ineos with several threats would have made it better for the other contenders. Stage 4 and every team pretty much know who their show ponies are for the time being.
I dont think it would make any difference, have Sky/Ineos ever been playing attacks with two GC leaders except Bernals attack on Iseran?
 
Not necessarily, it could happened like Joux plane and get caught, even if Vingegaard is not yet in peak shape.

Pogacar attacked at the right time, it was Puy de dome and Col du grand colombier all over again. Attacking in the last 1/1.5 km to take advantage of his explosiveness and then being able to get a small gap.

Pogacar has been doing a lot of this against Vingegaard, and almost turning into a mountain sprinter, he is smart since it's working, because he has more explosiveness than Vingegaard.

In last part of descent the weight played a big role plus the big headwind, and that turned into an agony to light guys like Vingegaard, who is just 58 kg.

At the moment Pogacar only got 8 s on Vingegaard and 23 s on Remco evenepoel in terms of climbing, when both are not yet at 100%.

The Tour will be funny in the last week.
That damage was done on what, two switchbacks? Give him two more and they all hurt more than him. The weight comparison to Jonas is BS. They're close enough it shouldn't be an issue except for the flattest portion of the run in: the very territory that Vingo's fan base favors him because of his TT ability.

Stage 19 might be one of those similar profiles and everyone will be very certain they can/can't follow. It's 100m higher in elevation and a longer climb than today although the job may be done by then and the stage a formality except for lesser places.
 
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True but he was also the first of the 4 to hit the front and might have not went full speed after getting dropped.
Good point. I think Yates knows that he got his podium last year but would be much tougher competition to get there this year, so will be focused on just his dom role. Which will be even more satisfying if this time he doms for the Tour winner.
 
Both Ayuso and Landa know, keeping Rogla in the race for overall, that increases their chances for a podium spot.
What are you on about? No it doesn't. Both Almeida, Ayuso and Landa could have ended Roglic' Tour yesterday. If he drops there, its over. He looked miserable and should be very, very, VERY happy by just being 1.14 down based on his legs. Roglic is scraping by, hoping for a miracle, but he's 34 and his consistently high top level is gone.

The most realistic scenario is Roglic ending somewhere between 4-8th right now.
 
So it went pretty much as expected and Pogi waited because of the headwind to attack. Ayuso was drifting to the back on stage 1, did nothing on stage 2 and now again sitting at the back. Is he sick or is this plain ol' f**king about?

Madiot was maybe right - it's all over, barring an accident.

On the subject of Ayuso, I find the 'moralistic' condemnations of his behavior (which I'm reading & hearing just about everywhere this morning) so completely... detached from reality, it blows my mind.

Stuff that happens on the road is the result of team tactics & when it's not, it's in most cases the result of what's actually in the rider's contract. It was said a few years ago Ayuso had a clause in his contract which stated he didn't have to work for Pogačar. If he was also contracted to be able to ride the Tour this year, then everything we've seen is easily explainable.

Yates meanwhile was signed as a super domestique. Everyone knows this. So I find the reactions whereby Yates is a top bloke & Ayuso a villain a bit too much. These guys are doing what they're contracted to do. Sepp Kuss for example didn't ride around 'benevolently' helping Rog & Vinge win GT's, i.e. it was his job description. If he didn't do it, they would have gotten someone else to.
 
I honestly see a bigger problem here with Almeida, who should not have remonstrated so publicly on TV. Pog or the DS should be the one telling Ayuso what to do. Tactically, I think what happened worked out fine, with Ayuso being marginally useful on the descent/finish. He should be following orders for sure, I just don't know what they were saying in his earpiece and I don't think Almeida should be the one calling the shots.

The real reason Almeida was angry was that he was on career best form, looking like the world's 3rd or 4th best climber, but had to "waste" it on his leader. If Almeida were OTB do you think he still would have been so hot n bothered?
Such a great skill that you can read minds like that :)
 
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