Tour de France Femmes 2025 (July 26th- August 3rd)

[Alien Performance]

if people could reorder the stage in any order of their choosing what order would you go for?
For the best racing I think something like 1,2,8,4,5,6,9,7

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Not sure what's optimal, I like something like 1 - 3 - 5 - 7 - 4 - 8 - 6 - 2 - 9; open with the punchy stage, then get a flat stage out of the way. Then have the one with a slightly tougher climb near the end that causes a little more of a gap, then today's stage as the first real climbing stage, but with a flat stage following it so the GC riders aren't dissuaded from giving it a go because they can recuperate a little with an easier on-paper day the next day. Then the main MTF, before a stage with a lot of cumulative climbing but no key-note ascents, so that the tired legs of the day before come into it, and you possibly have some serious stagehunters who soft-pedalled the Madeleine up the road, giving potential for ambushes but at least a battle between strong riders no longer in the GC mix for the stage win. After this, we have the up-and-down-all-day stage 2, one where time gaps aren't necessarily going to be that big but with some very weary legs from the previous two days, the fact that there's almost no flat in the last 50km means that it's a real banana skin of a stage where even if the GC riders want a day off they'll struggle because there's going to be so many riders who've lost some time still hunting something to take out of the race and the many small hills will encourage potential small time gains and losses that demand attention from the leaders, and then finally the final stage where there's a major climb but it's 60km from home; I don't think this stage sees too much GC action if it isn't the last GC-relevant stage in line, and if it goes before other major climbing stages you probably don't see too much action in earnest kick off before Corbier, but as the last chance, riders could be throwing haymakers from the Joux-Plane.

The danger of putting the Madeleine too early is that if you get somebody do an Annemiek and just obliterate the competition, it will take out the possibility for a battle among riders not expected to be front-line GC contestants to battle over the jersey. Definitely it is better to move the MTF forward, but I do think stage 3 runs the risk of being too early when it's the only major mountain positioned to be decisive in the stage it is in. Ideally I'd have it around stage 5 or 6 with some intermediate stages beforehand that put the jersey in the vicinity of the favourites but still allows others to battle for a chance to wear it, a bit like we're seeing with Le Court at the moment.

 

[Red Rick]

Not sure what's optimal, I like something like 1 - 3 - 5 - 7 - 4 - 8 - 6 - 2 - 9; open with the punchy stage, then get a flat stage out of the way. Then have the one with a slightly tougher climb near the end that causes a little more of a gap, then today's stage as the first real climbing stage, but with a flat stage following it so the GC riders aren't dissuaded from giving it a go because they can recuperate a little with an easier on-paper day the next day. Then the main MTF, before a stage with a lot of cumulative climbing but no key-note ascents, so that the tired legs of the day before come into it, and you possibly have some serious stagehunters who soft-pedalled the Madeleine up the road, giving potential for ambushes but at least a battle between strong riders no longer in the GC mix for the stage win. After this, we have the up-and-down-all-day stage 2, one where time gaps aren't necessarily going to be that big but with some very weary legs from the previous two days, the fact that there's almost no flat in the last 50km means that it's a real banana skin of a stage where even if the GC riders want a day off they'll struggle because there's going to be so many riders who've lost some time still hunting something to take out of the race and the many small hills will encourage potential small time gains and losses that demand attention from the leaders, and then finally the final stage where there's a major climb but it's 60km from home; I don't think this stage sees too much GC action if it isn't the last GC-relevant stage in line, and if it goes before other major climbing stages you probably don't see too much action in earnest kick off before Corbier, but as the last chance, riders could be throwing haymakers from the Joux-Plane.

The danger of putting the Madeleine too early is that if you get somebody do an Annemiek and just obliterate the competition, it will take out the possibility for a battle among riders not expected to be front-line GC contestants to battle over the jersey. Definitely it is better to move the MTF forward, but I do think stage 3 runs the risk of being too early when it's the only major mountain positioned to be decisive in the stage it is in. Ideally I'd have it around stage 5 or 6 with some intermediate stages beforehand that put the jersey in the vicinity of the favourites but still allows others to battle for a chance to wear it, a bit like we're seeing with Le Court at the moment.

The field should be more even now than in the Van Vleuten year. But still I don't think the TdFF should put in the MTFs on hard HC climbs that take the men 45 minutes +. If anything use them mid stage or in the 2nd half of the stage, but without the HC finish. It's as simple as the Mortirolo/Finestre format that is so popular among fans in the men's races but for the women it shouldn't require climbs that legendary necessarily to achieve the same effects.

 

[Oldman]

Squiban does...and did. Another colossal descending skills clinic. Chapeau!!!!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The field should be more even now than in the Van Vleuten year. But still I don't think the TdFF should put in the MTFs on hard HC climbs that take the men 45 minutes +. If anything use them mid stage or in the 2nd half of the stage, but without the HC finish. It's as simple as the Mortirolo/Finestre format that is so popular among fans in the men's races but for the women it shouldn't require climbs that legendary necessarily to achieve the same effects.

I understand, and to an extent agree, I feel introducing a legendary climb each year is a good way of building the women's race up as part of the legacy of the Tour, however, as well as buying goodwill and buy-in from fans (a legendary climb does not have to be a monster HC climb nor does it have to be an MTF, it could just as easily be, say, Peyresourde, Aspin or Colombière). A better approach in years where that climb is an HC monster that they're using as an MTF (let's remember the women have done things like the Zoncolan in the Giro, and have even done Mont Ventoux in the Tour de l'Ardêche which doesn't even draw a full WWT type field) would be a Unipuerto followed by a stage which uses multiple cat.1/2 type climbs so that the types of climbing stage are varied and they don't neuter earlier stages.

There's only one problem.

Last year's Glandon and Alpe d'Huez stage. That had two such HC monsters, it was a colossally backloaded route, they'd staked the race on that stage delivering, and most importantly, it was awesome. They got lightning in a bottle, sure, and replicating that type of stage in the hope of getting the same kind of drama is a fool's errand. But there should be no denying that objectively that stage provided great drama and entertainment.

 

[Oldman]

There's only one problem.

Last year's Glandon and Alpe d'Huez stage. That had two such HC monsters, it was a colossally backloaded route, they'd staked the race on that stage delivering, and most importantly, it was awesome. They got lightning in a bottle, sure, and replicating that type of stage in the hope of getting the same kind of drama is a fool's errand. But there should be no denying that objectively that stage provided great drama and entertainment.

I agree from what little I've watched last year. The final stage was sensational and has appeared to affect how the much closer racing progresses this year. The fear of the coming climbs has tied the top five so closely together that almost any aggression among them gets and automatic neutralization; rather than a relay and serious break effort. The last two stages have shown the fear of the bigger cols has them all sitting on each other and only contesting bonus and final sprints for seconds.
I'm not sure if it's the pending hills or the FOMO syndrome. I confess I don't know enough about all the rider histories that could explains the tepid follow-throughs but the next two days will likely reveal this year's hidden/surprise heroine.

 

[Didinho]

Pieterse crashed on the downhill trying to get back to the Le Court group. Was thinking the whole time when she would get there, no camera behind the front groups.

 

[Tonton]

Bravo Maeva! She belongs to the top, she's here to stay. The revelation. French road cycling is not dead, and now, there's Pauline.

PFP is in that galaxy of special champions, she gave herself three years to win Le Tour and complete her comeback: how about year one? tomorrow's stage is HUGE!

Allez Pauline!

 

[dobrien]

Bravo Maeva! She belongs to the top, she's here to stay. The revelation. French road cycling is not dead, and now, there's Pauline.

Pretty exciting!!

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Pieterse crashed on the downhill trying to get back to the Le Court group. Was thinking the whole time when she would get there, no camera behind the front groups.

She crashed downhill in the MTB last week too.

 

[Jan the Man]

I don’t really follow it closely throughout the season but have been watching the Tour- who realistically is favourite? Vollering? PFP?

Realistically Can Gigante emulage Giro Donne form and what was competition like there in comparison?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I don’t really follow it closely throughout the season but have been watching the Tour- who realistically is favourite? Vollering? PFP?

Realistically Can Gigante emulage Giro Donne form and what was competition like there in comparison?

Vollering is the on-paper favourite, she has been the season-long strongest climber over the last few years. PFP is a wildcard because she's been out of the road péloton for so long and she hasn't done much of this type of climbing, if any at all, since her return (she was out of the Vuelta before the mountains began, and came 18th, three and a half minutes down, on Jebel Hafeet in February) - but PFP mark 1 would have won the Giro in 2014 if not for bonus seconds, albeit there were no climbs comparable to the Madeleine in the Giro in her heyday (she didn't do the race in 2016 when the Mortirolo came in). You'd say given the proven record over climbs as tough as this that Vollering is favourite over PFP, but PFP's comeback has essentially been built around this race, so this is her looking to be at peak here.

Van der Breggen is also a wildcard; in her heyday she was the top climber out there, and any tough race became essentially a straight slapfight between her and van Vleuten. She has looked a step off that level since her return, but was still the next best climber after Vollering and Reusser in the Vuelta, and has been targeting this race also. After last year's SD Worx shenanigans, there's a bit of needle between her and Vollering as well.

Niewiadoma is the defending champion so should never be counted out, but at the same time she's a great climber but also somebody who has been beaten by Vollering in pretty much every climb of this scale in recent years (Küssnacht in the Tour de Suisse being the only exception I could find on a quick scan); last year's victory was built on a spectacular defence of a lead she was granted by SD Worx' implosion of teamwork in a flat stage. However, for much of her career her sweet spot was mid-length climbs of 5-8km and she suffered on the longer ones, she has got over that limitation and has been defeated only in the sprint to the line a couple of times, most notably Torgon in the Tour de Romandie a couple of years ago.

Gigante is definitely a potential wildcard, the problem is that while she's long had the engine, she'd only shown glimpses of her max potential until recently, and you can only take people by surprise once. The field in the Giro was perhaps not too much worse at its pinnacle than the Tour, but it was certainly less deep - no Demi, no Kasia, no PFP, and it was clear van der Breggen was not at her best. Reusser has been the best version of herself this season for sure, but she got sick at the end of the race, while Kopecky got the opportunity to lead in order to free up Tour leadership for van der Breggen, and completely flunked the chance. ELB is, however, long term proven quality, plus of course she's Italian. As a pretty one-dimensional rider, Gigante is likely in a similar role to the one she had in the Giro, or Pauliena Rooijakkers had in last year's Tour. Speaking of Rooijakkers, we probably shouldn't discount her from the potential to do the same as Gigante, after all she was up with Vollering until the line last year, and last year she was 4th in the Giro before 3rd in the Tour, and she's been 4th in the Giro again this year. Kerbaol is also an outsider with potential to surprise - she hasn't got a long list of examples as she's really stepped up this season, she was 4th on Cotobello and 6th to Lagunas de Neila in the Vuelta and 4th to Küssnacht in the Tour de Suisse.

Hell, last year Neve Bradbury won on Blockhaus, she's here but hasn't demonstrated the kind of form to suggest this is remotely possible again. And there's always the potential for a one-off showing. Évita Muzic was 3rd to Alpe d'Huez last year despite being caught behind the péloton before the Glandon after a nature break, but she will be riding in the service of Vollering; Marion Bunel has been very inconspicuous in this race but rides at her best on the biggest and baddest climbs, being 11th to Alpe d'Huez last year as a 19-year-old before winning on Les Karellis and the Colle delle Finestre in l'Avenir, and being 2nd only to Vollering on the Coll de Pal (the Bagà one, not the Andorra one) in the Volta a Catalunya. And who knows how far Maëva Squiban's current form can take her?

 

[Jan the Man]

Vollering is the on-paper favourite, she has been the season-long strongest climber over the last few years. PFP is a wildcard because she's been out of the road péloton for so long and she hasn't done much of this type of climbing, if any at all, since her return (she was out of the Vuelta before the mountains began, and came 18th, three and a half minutes down, on Jebel Hafeet in February) - but PFP mark 1 would have won the Giro in 2014 if not for bonus seconds, albeit there were no climbs comparable to the Madeleine in the Giro in her heyday (she didn't do the race in 2016 when the Mortirolo came in). You'd say given the proven record over climbs as tough as this that Vollering is favourite over PFP, but PFP's comeback has essentially been built around this race, so this is her looking to be at peak here.

Van der Breggen is also a wildcard; in her heyday she was the top climber out there, and any tough race became essentially a straight slapfight between her and van Vleuten. She has looked a step off that level since her return, but was still the next best climber after Vollering and Reusser in the Vuelta, and has been targeting this race also. After last year's SD Worx shenanigans, there's a bit of needle between her and Vollering as well.

Niewiadoma is the defending champion so should never be counted out, but at the same time she's a great climber but also somebody who has been beaten by Vollering in pretty much every climb of this scale in recent years (Küssnacht in the Tour de Suisse being the only exception I could find on a quick scan); last year's victory was built on a spectacular defence of a lead she was granted by SD Worx' implosion of teamwork in a flat stage. However, for much of her career her sweet spot was mid-length climbs of 5-8km and she suffered on the longer ones, she has got over that limitation and has been defeated only in the sprint to the line a couple of times, most notably Torgon in the Tour de Romandie a couple of years ago.

Gigante is definitely a potential wildcard, the problem is that while she's long had the engine, she'd only shown glimpses of her max potential until recently, and you can only take people by surprise once. The field in the Giro was perhaps not too much worse at its pinnacle than the Tour, but it was certainly less deep - no Demi, no Kasia, no PFP, and it was clear van der Breggen was not at her best. Reusser has been the best version of herself this season for sure, but she got sick at the end of the race, while Kopecky got the opportunity to lead in order to free up Tour leadership for van der Breggen, and completely flunked the chance. ELB is, however, long term proven quality, plus of course she's Italian. As a pretty one-dimensional rider, Gigante is likely in a similar role to the one she had in the Giro, or Pauliena Rooijakkers had in last year's Tour. Speaking of Rooijakkers, we probably shouldn't discount her from the potential to do the same as Gigante, after all she was up with Vollering until the line last year, and last year she was 4th in the Giro before 3rd in the Tour, and she's been 4th in the Giro again this year. Kerbaol is also an outsider with potential to surprise - she hasn't got a long list of examples as she's really stepped up this season, she was 4th on Cotobello and 6th to Lagunas de Neila in the Vuelta and 4th to Küssnacht in the Tour de Suisse.

Hell, last year Neve Bradbury won on Blockhaus, she's here but hasn't demonstrated the kind of form to suggest this is remotely possible again. And there's always the potential for a one-off showing. Évita Muzic was 3rd to Alpe d'Huez last year despite being caught behind the péloton before the Glandon after a nature break, but she will be riding in the service of Vollering; Marion Bunel has been very inconspicuous in this race but rides at her best on the biggest and baddest climbs, being 11th to Alpe d'Huez last year as a 19-year-old before winning on Les Karellis and the Colle delle Finestre in l'Avenir, and being 2nd only to Vollering on the Coll de Pal (the Bagà one, not the Andorra one) in the Volta a Catalunya. And who knows how far Maëva Squiban's current form can take her?

Thanks for the analysis - much appreciated!

 

[Izzyeviel]

My top five prediction: NFB, AVDN, PFP, Labous, Gigante. I dunno what order.

 

[tobydawq]

Alison Jackson must have the least stylish riding style in the history of cycling. My god...

 

[Red Rick]

No attacks and just middling pace here is something that makes me realize I don't understand women's cycling at all

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Today's the day. There can be no more hiding. The legs will decide, whether or not Squiban will complete a hattrick.

 

[JR1012]

My top five prediction: NFB, AVDN, PFP, Labous, Gigante. I dunno what order.

Bold prediction. No Vollering and Kasia.

 

[yaco]

I'll never understand why Ghekiere is allowed into the break when her role is to hope Gigante on the descents in the later part of the stage.

 

[tobydawq]

No attacks and just middling pace here is something that makes me realize I don't understand women's cycling at all

Tactics don't seem to be a thing for some reason.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Enjoys this going in the break lark, doesn't she?

 

[JosefK]

Squiban looks ready to do a Pogi.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

So everyone is content to just gift Squiban another stage win? This is like when people were still willing to work with Vine in the Vuelta where he killed everyone from breaks.

 

[dobrien]

LeCourt crashed??

 

[Barnacle Bill]

Just got back to the tv to see carnage on the descent, some close shaves