Tour de la Provence 2022 (February 10-13)

[Samamba]

So the reference here is Alaphilippe. Quintana lost 14 seconds to him. That was impressive ride by the little fellow.

If he survives tmrw he wins GC.

 

[Earns1985]

So the reference here is Alaphilippe. Quintana lost 14 seconds to him. That was impressive ride by the little fellow.

Well the climb of the last stage is 13,4 km with an average of only 6,5%.

I think Hayter can definitly do that. If Ganna goes for it, also not absolutely impossible..

 

[Escarabajo]

Well the climb of the last stage is 13,4 km with an average of only 6,5%.

I think Hayter can definitly do that. If Ganna goes for it, also not absolutely impossible..

I think it is too much for Ganna if the climbers go full on.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Well the climb of the last stage is 13,4 km with an average of only 6,5%.

I think Hayter can definitly do that. If Ganna goes for it, also not absolutely impossible..

If Hayter survives that, i'd be disappointed in all the climbers that did a good TT.

 

[SafeBet]

Ganna hinted they might go for it tomorrow. I'm not positive the climbers will survive if the wind is as strong as forecasted.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Ganna hinted they might go for it tomorrow. I'm not positive the climbers will survive if the wind is as strong as forecasted.

Is Quintana bad at echelons? I thought he usually did pretty good. Also guys like Alaphilippe, Skjelmose, Van Wilder are not far behind Hayter and should under normal conditions be better climbers and strong enough in crosswinds. Latour is also still up there.

 

[SafeBet]

Is Quintana bad at echelons? I thought he usually did pretty good. Also guys like Alaphilippe, Skjelmose, Van Wilder are not far behind Hayter and should under normal conditions be better climbers and strong enough in crosswinds.

That's assuming Hayter hasn't improved as a climber since last year. And considering his raw talent (+ Ineos previous work on that type of rider) I wouldn't necessarily bet on it.
But overall I agree there are more reliable climbers in the bunch and that's why I think Ineos will try to make the race tomorrow. Don't know about this version of Quintana, he was good enough in echelons when at his peak though.

 

[Earns1985]

If Hayter survives that, i'd be disappointed in all the climbers that did a good TT.

For me Hayter is a type of rider like Alaphilippe. Better in punchy climbs, but if he goes for it, he can also survive a longer climb.

Last year he won for example this stage at the Volta Algarve out of the field: (ok, it was against a weak field, but I would say the climbs in the end had been more difficult than the one on Sunday).

 

[Netserk]

Well the climb of the last stage is 13,4 km with an average of only 6,5%.

I think Hayter can definitly do that. If Ganna goes for it, also not absolutely impossible..

It's steeper than Saint-Martin where Quintana won by a wide margin in 2020.

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[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Ganna super strong… Congratulations…

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It's steeper than Saint-Martin where Quintana won by a wide margin in 2020.

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The difference in steepness is pretty marginal. Also Quintana was suddenly back to best-climber-in-the-world material for about a month back then, everyone else was very close with noted mountain goats Benoot and Schachmann battling it out for the overall victory, similar to 2018 when Simon Yates won just ahead of Teuns, both Izagirres and Wellens on the same climb. If Hayter is about the fifth-best climber in the race, he has a very good chance, and he won't even need that much if the echelons break in his favour tomorrow.

 

[Netserk]

The difference in steepness is pretty marginal. Also Quintana was suddenly back to best-climber-in-the-world material for about a month back then, everyone else was very close with noted mountain goats Benoot and Schachmann battling it out for the overall victory, just like in 2018 when Simon Yates won just ahead of Teuns, both Izagirres and Wellens. If Hayter is about the fifth-best climber in the race, he has a very good chance, and he won't even need that much if the echelons break in his favour tomorrow.

Well, I did pick the most similar MTF I could find, but the steepest 5 km is near the end of both climbs with a difference of 0.5 % points. That's not insignificant. I think the climbing field is shallow enough here for bigger winning margins than Saint-Martin '18 & '21 and Lure '13, and I certainly think the sweet spot for Hayter is quite narrow when he needs to defend against both Alaphilippe and Quintana.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

For me Hayter is a type of rider like Alaphilippe. Better in punchy climbs, but if he goes for it, he can also survive a longer climb.

He's also taller and heavier than Alaphilippe, which would put him in between Alaphilippe and Van Aert. On a 13k climb, that might not prove to be an advantage compared to more natural climbers. And while Hayter is a big talent, i don't know yet if he's in the league of the aforementioned. There's a lot of guys only seconds behind him, that i would deem more natural climbers than Hayter. Foia is a much shorter climb and less steep. It seems to fit allrounders even more than pure climbers relatively, with guys like Schachmann, Van Avermaet, Kwiatkowski, Wellens, Jungels, Serry... all doing great. Montagne de Lure seems like a shorter Mont Ventoux in comparison.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

All this talk about the mountain stage, but the real treat is tomorrow. The wind will be extreme so let's cross our fingers that they won't take use of the extreme weather protocol. If not, we might be in for one of the best stages - and races - of the year already.

 

[Samamba]

All this talk about the mountain stage, but the real treat is tomorrow. The wind will be extreme so let's cross our fingers that they won't take use of the extreme weather protocol. If not, we might be in for one of the best stages - and races - of the year already.

Wind is coming from the north tho so it means head/tailwind for the most part of the race. But a 50km/u wind on the limited parts where there will be crosswind should do what it's supposed to do. Extreme weather protocol for just wind (its gonna be sunny) would be incredibly dissapointing.

 

[Sciatic]

Wind is coming from the north tho so it means head/tailwind for the most part of the race. But a 50km/u wind on the limited parts where there will be crosswind should do what it's supposed to do. Extreme weather protocol for just wind (its gonna be sunny) would be incredibly dissapointing.

If anyone needs extra incentive to watch (and are able to tune in) Stage 2 also traverses some gorgeous scenery, especially the area around Les Baux.

 

[Sciatic]

How come these stage race threads (including Oman) aren’t stickied?

 

[WKA311]

That's assuming Hayter hasn't improved as a climber since last year. And considering his raw talent (+ Ineos previous work on that type of rider) I wouldn't necessarily bet on it.
But overall I agree there are more reliable climbers in the bunch and that's why I think Ineos will try to make the race tomorrow. Don't know about this version of Quintana, he was good enough in echelons when at his peak though.

There's no way Quintana isn't putting decent time into Hayter on that MTF as long as there isn't a block headwind on it. This is a far longer effort than Hayter has shown he can defend himself on so far. Hayter will probably Top 15/20 it but I don't see him better than that. He hasn't changed much as a rider type over winter as he'll still target the classics and still do track.

So yes, same conclusion as many here, Ineos (Rowe to be precise) will rip the peloton to pieces tomorrow to get Hayter & Carapaz into the MTF with possibly even more time (Hayter) or rather get something back on Nairo, Alafpolak, Latour, Van Wilder etc. in Carapaz's case.

 

[Nirvana]

Hopefully Ganna is allowed to go on the attack in San Remo this time instead of setting tempo.

Last year he was setting tempo on the Poggio because he was ill during Tirreno and he didn't feel good enough to go for it.

 

[RedheadDane]

How come these stage race threads (including Oman) aren’t stickied?

Because @Red Rick is slow.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Because @Red Rick is slow.

One might say he's getting... old.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

One might say he's getting... old.

“Age is an issue of mind over matter. If you don’t mind, it doesn’t matter.” ~Mark Twain
apparently

 

[Red Rick]

One might say he's getting... old.

Can confirm am washed

 

[Earns1985]

Seems that Quick-Step and Ineos are pulling! Are there already live images?

 

[BlueRoads]

Seems that Quick-Step and Ineos are pulling! Are there already live images?

Yep.