Transfers and Rumours 2011 > 2012

[Froome19]

yeah because we all remember those dreadful giro;s decided by itt

Well it is not like none of them are good enough atm to take enough time out of him in the mountains (we'll see about Rujano but I have my doubts about his climbing these days in the final week) and on descents and TT he will murder them, especially considering that after this years and last years Giro I have the feeling at least next years may contain two longish TT, which the colombians would do well to translate to less than 2 min loss in each= 4min loss already from the TT, never mind superior teams and descending (I know they are good descenders etc but are they good enough? I think without contador Nibali can translate his descending it some real time gaps now)

 

[hrotha]

When someone wins a GT at 26 and keeps improving and contending pretty much every race he enters, be that one-day races or stage races, it's just silly to claim with any degree of certainty that he'll never win a GT again. You're just being irrational.

 

[Froome19]

When someone wins a GT at 26 and keeps improving and contending pretty much every race he enters, be that one-day races or stage races, it's just silly to claim with any degree of certainty that he'll never win a GT again. You're just being irrational.

In a way it is understandable because Nibali I doubt will race the Vuelta again in the near future considering the interest he is showing in the tour and his obvious attachment to the Giro and team ties. For example of course Cobo is different and older, but do you really think he will win another GT?

I believe that the Vuelta is a very limited proof of a rider's ability to win the other Gts but of course from what Nibali has shown he is odds on to win more Gts and I believe Ryo was taking the opportunity to try and big up his Columbian quartet

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

nibali's vuelta win was a fluke against either sh*tty riders and those that were good, got injured. he''s never been close to winning the giro either. in fatc he must count his lucky stars he finished on the podium in both cases. he;s also not improving at all. maybe his itt has improved this year. we will see.

 

[Froome19]

nibali's vuelta win was a fluke against either sh*tty riders and those that were good, got injured. he''s never been close to winning the giro either. in fatc he must count his lucky stars he finished on the podium in both cases. he;s also not improving at all. maybe his itt has improved this year. we will see.

I would call 46 seconds reasonably close.
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20331

 

[infeXio]

Contador is supposedly close to signing a new contract with Saxo-Bank

http://www.sporten.dk/cykling/contador-jeg-er-taet-paa-aftale-med-riis

 

[roundabout]

When someone wins a GT at 26 and keeps improving and contending pretty much every race he enters, be that one-day races or stage races, it's just silly to claim with any degree of certainty that he'll never win a GT again. You're just being irrational.

I'd rather look for improvement in in high mountains over multiple days and long(er) time trials than 1-day races when looking at GT ability.

But who knows, this might be too irrational.

 

[hrotha]

I'd rather look for improvement in in high mountains over multiple days and long(er) time trials than 1-day races when looking at GT ability.

But who knows, this might be too irrational.

I didn't say his improvement in one-day races was the only or even the main factor, did I?

In fact, I placed it in third position after his past GT performances and the evidence from his performance in stage races.

 

[roundabout]

I never said that you said so. As for the rest of your arguments

Past GT performances show that long time trials and recovery after consecutive mountain stages are a relative weakness.

Performance in stage races show improvement as a rider but again it remains to be seen how they translate to GT form.

 

[Parrulo]

silly hrotha doubting the mighty Ryo Hazuki, the carrier of the absolute truth.

so Ryo in your, always humble and unbiased opinion, nibali hasn't improved at all since he won the vuelta?

 

[Parrulo]

I never said that you said so. As for the rest of your arguments

Past GT performances show that long time trials and recovery after consecutive mountain stages are a relative weakness.

Performance in stage races show improvement as a rider but again it remains to be seen how they translate to GT form.

this is absolutely true, i agree 100% with you. the third day in a row on the mountains always means nibali suffering.

from 2010 to 2011 it is noticeable that he already improved a bit on that regard so hopefully this year he might get it covered.

about his itt, he said during the Tour de San Luis that he worked on his itt for the first time since 2008 iirc during the winter and that his position and performance overall had improved, but i will hold judgment till the dauphine to be honest.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

yes. his resuts in classics have improved but that's just results. his itt;s we will see this tour

 

[Parrulo]

yes. his resuts in classics have improved but that's just results. his itt;s we will see this tour

i would say his performances in GT's also improved since 2010, at least his giro 2011 self looked much more impressive then his vuelta 2010 self. I guess one doesn't notice tho because contador just made every1 look below average during the giro

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

in the giro 2011 he was the 4th guy, long after contador, rujano and scarponi. in 2010 he was also worse than scarponi. I don't see the improvement. beating gadret and kreuziger is no feat. purito was sick during the first 1/2 weeks of the giro but in teh latter part also proved to be stronger.

 

[The Hitch]

Well it is not like none of them are good enough atm to take enough time out of him in the mountains (we'll see about Rujano but I have my doubts about his climbing these days in the final week) and on descents and TT he will murder them, especially considering that after this years and last years Giro I have the feeling at least next years may contain two longish TT, which the colombians would do well to translate to less than 2 min loss in each= 4min loss already from the TT, never mind superior teams and descending (I know they are good descenders etc but are they good enough? I think without contador Nibali can translate his descending it some real time gaps now)

30k isnt "longish"?

And if they had a 60k tt - which would be a disgrace, i think they would place limits on how much time can be lost.

 

[The Hitch]

For example of course Cobo is different and older, but do you really think he will win another GT?

Cobo hasnt podiumed 2 other gts.

 

[Froome19]

in the giro 2011 he was the 4th guy, long after contador, rujano and scarponi. in 2010 he was also worse than scarponi. I don't see the improvement. beating gadret and kreuziger is no feat. purito was sick during the first 1/2 weeks of the giro but in teh latter part also proved to be stronger.

He beat Scarponi in the mountain TT and the TT so no he wasnt all that much behind Scarponi.
Also if you consider the mountaineous stages in Giro 2011:
Giro d'Italia, Stage 9 : Messina - Etna Nibali:3. Scarponi:11.
Giro d'Italia, Stage 13 : Spilimbergo - Grossglockner (Aut) Nibali 7. Scarponi 6
Giro d'Italia, Stage 16 : Belluno - Nevegal I.T.T.Nibali 1. Scarponi2.
Giro d'Italia, Stage 15 : Conegliano - Gardeccia/Val di Fassa Nibali 6.scarponi.3
Giro d'Italia, Stage 14 : Lienz (Aut) - Monte Zoncolan Nibali 2. Scarponi3.
Giro d'Italia, Stage 20 : Verbania - Sestriere Nibali 10. Scarponi 6.
Giro d'Italia, Stage 19 : Bergamo - Macugnaga Nibali 2. Scarponi 6.

It comes out as Nibali vs Scarponi as 4-3 to Nibbles
I dont know if I watched the same race as yours but in mine they were neck and neck for most of the way and the fact is that you can not disconsider that Nibali came out only 46 seconds behind on a course with limited TT and with contador gone and scarponi the main favorite I dont see any reason why he cant lessen or even reverse that gap

 

[Froome19]

30k isnt "longish"?

And if they had a 60k tt - which would be a disgrace, i think they would place limits on how much time can be lost.

Imo it is, I was basically implying anything not called a prologue because anything 20km or over the Columbians will in all probability lose over 2 min to Nibali as I said

Cobo hasnt podiumed 2 other gts.

Yes but I was making the point that winning the Vuelta in its own right doesnt qualify you as being a favorite to win other Gts.
If you go back I then implied your right.

 

[roundabout]

He beat Scarponi in the mountain TT and the TT so no he wasnt all that much behind Scarponi.
Also if you consider the mountaineous stages in Giro 2011:
Giro d'Italia, Stage 9 : Messina - Etna Nibali:3. Scarponi:11.
Giro d'Italia, Stage 13 : Spilimbergo - Grossglockner (Aut) Nibali 7. Scarponi 6
Giro d'Italia, Stage 16 : Belluno - Nevegal I.T.T.Nibali 1. Scarponi2.
Giro d'Italia, Stage 15 : Conegliano - Gardeccia/Val di Fassa Nibali 6.scarponi.3
Giro d'Italia, Stage 14 : Lienz (Aut) - Monte Zoncolan Nibali 2. Scarponi3.
Giro d'Italia, Stage 20 : Verbania - Sestriere Nibali 10. Scarponi 6.
Giro d'Italia, Stage 19 : Bergamo - Macugnaga Nibali 2. Scarponi 6.

It comes out as Nibali vs Scarponi as 4-3 to Nibbles
I dont know if I watched the same race as yours but in mine they were neck and neck for most of the way and the fact is that you can not disconsider that Nibali came out only 46 seconds behind on a course with limited TT and with contador gone and scarponi the main favorite I dont see any reason why he cant lessen or even reverse that gap

2 stages that Nibali "lost" he got dropped on the penultimate climb.

1 stage that Nibali "won" was because he didn't even attempt to chase Contador, 1 was a final km "sprint" with seconds at play.

 

[roundabout]

i would say his performances in GT's also improved since 2010, at least his giro 2011 self looked much more impressive then his vuelta 2010 self. I guess one doesn't notice tho because contador just made every1 look below average during the giro

Apart from Zoncolan and the MTT there wasn't anything particularly impressive about Nibali's 2011 Giro.

 

[Froome19]

2 stages that Nibali "lost" he got dropped on the penultimate climb.

1 stage that Nibali "won" was because he didn't even attempt to chase Contador, 1 was a final km "sprint" with seconds at play.

Point taken, but the point still stands that Nibali was much more competitive against everybody bar contador than Ryo implies he was.

 

[roundabout]

Point taken, but the point still stands that Nibali was much more competitive against everybody bar contador than Ryo implies he was.

Using your method, one can argue that Nibali was better than Rujano only on Zoncolan, MTT and Macugnaga while Rujano was better on 4 other stages. Although, I'll be the first to admit that this comparison is harder to make in this case due to Rujano's not being in direct competition with Nibali.

 

[stefrees]

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but tiernan-Locke has been training with sky in Tenerife, he did altitude training with wiggins Porte and suitsov, source cycling weekly

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Apart from Zoncolan and the MTT there wasn't anything particularly impressive about Nibali's 2011 Giro.

Nonsense. That bunnyhop on the wet descent of the Passo Giau was impressive as hell.

 

[karlboss]

Nibali has podiumed 2 GTs and won 1. You can maybe say he fluked 1 of those results, but it's a stretch to say the quickest guy over 3 weeks of racing fluked anything. The only way he doesn't win another GT between the ages of 26 and 32, is if he focusses on the wrong GT year after year. A modest improvement would make him out and out favourite in every Giro and Vuelta he enters.
His contract seems low though, these bonuses must be massive.