the big ring said:Wiggins was 4th at the Tour in 2009, and joined Sky in 2010. Contador was pinged in 2010. Wiggins was on track to podium 2011.
Pat McQuaid knew Sky were going to win this year's Tour on July 11 - 11 days before the race had finished - good enough prediction skills for me.
Wiggins finished 23rd in the 2010 Tour, in 2011 he crashed after a couple of days, he wasn't on track for anything. Team Sky did terrible in pretty much all stage races in 2010, it's not like Contador was the only guy standing in the way of a British TDF win, there were dozens of other things preventing that. It wasn't untill Froome's Miraculous Breakthough, Wiggins fantastic season leading up to the TDF this year and the sudden incredible increase in performance by the likes of Rogers and Porte that Wiggins became a favorite, non of those things were present (or even hinted at) in 2010.