Parcours REALLY suits him (bit less hard than last year), but he has to fight against some duo's, mainly FFB and Pithie, they are definitely the favorites. You also have Bennett and Strong and the less strong duo of Thompson and Currie. Gate will have to be really strong or a bit lucky to win it, but yes he will get a good amount of points. A guaranteed top 3 in the TT too.
I expected a very strong Astana at the beginning of the season, but they got more points than I thought they were gonna get. More than 800 already. 3rd in the UCI ranking this year (Movistar is 2nd btw, their pretty insane season start is going under the radar). They really are starting like Arkea/Intermarché 2022. The question is, will they fade like those teams did in 2022. Next weeks it will be harder, they will have to rely on Gate, Higuita and their Kazaks to get (relatively easy) points in Championships. In Oman with Ulissi and in Murcia with their other hill specialist they could do good tho, but it won't be as easy anymore.