US prosecutors drop case against Armstrong/USPS

[thehog]

Hog....what's happened to you?

This to my mind is the most sensible thing I have seen written on this....I completely concur.

Wow...er....well done!

Thank-you. I’d like to say that I’ve matured during this process! I’m also gunning to become a Mod one day and Susan promised if I’m well behaved I will get the honor!

Seriously even if Floyd had photos of motorcycles with blood bags it doesn’t actually prove that Armstrong doped. Even if you had more former riders coming out and saying he doped it doesn’t prove much either as it just gets labeled as “disgruntled ex-team-mates” - You already have Weltz out there telling the world what they want to hear.

I just can’t see how USADA will get enough to amount to anything.

The only thing that could turn this is either Floyd releases his recordings of phone conversations between him and Armstrong – which would be illegal. Or Big George tells all. The likelihood of either those two events occurring is about as likely as a contaminated meat story being true!

 

[straydog]

Well how much would it take, if they are able to garner for example the testimonies from the Fed investigaion. Do they have to pay for that information?

As I alluded to previoulsy, if the USADA were able to get their hands on the testimonies of those called to give evidence and they all match? What is the next stage? Would more proof be required?

I really dont know and that is why I am asking.

I just think it would send a very powerful message if the richest and most powerful cyclist of all-time was actually sanctioned.

Ok...this is just my opinion...and I think also has some relevance to the lack of charges brought after the GJ testimonies...

Lets look at the witnesses....Floyd and Tyler...no matter how credible we may think them or not....both failed dope tests....lied about it pretty spectacularly....for a long time....in Tyler's case...he failed another test...then they came "clean". Well I am pretty sure most lawyers would be rubbing their hands if offered a go at them.

Ok...the 99 samples...well they have already been there and done that...option closed.

Betsey and Frankie? the bedside confession. Well it doesn't prove anything for 99-05.

Greg...well it's just a lot of angry stuff without any corroboration.

Surely the only hope they would have would be an actual failed test. Even a re examined one, which if we believe what we are led to believe about transfusion replacing dosing from 2000 ish onwards is very unlikely.

So honestly, unless Floyd produces those pictures of the fridge panniers with LA doing a thumbs up in the background, I think this "case" is an absolute non starter and will no doubt cost money to absolutely no end other than giving journos more reason to pick over the carcass of professional cycling's slightly shady past.

Time to move on I'd say. Some you win, some you lose.

On a side note... reading about it when or if Julie Mancur writes something? What will that achieve? Articles have been written plenty of times...books too...those who believe will and those who don't will ignore...it won't change anything.

Peace

 

[straydog]

Thank-you. I’d like to say that I’ve matured during this process! I’m also gunning to become a Mod one day and Susan promised if I’m well behaved I will get the honor!

Seriously even if Floyd had photos of motorcycles with blood bags it doesn’t actually prove that Armstrong doped. Even if you had more former riders coming out and saying he doped it doesn’t prove much either as it just gets labeled as “disgruntled ex-team-mates” - You already have Weltz out there telling the world what they want to hear.

I just can’t see how USADA will get enough to amount to anything.

The only thing that could turn this is either Floyd releases his recordings of phone conversations between him and Armstrong – which would be illegal. Or Big George tells all. The likelihood of either those two events occurring is about as likely as a contaminated meat story being true!

ha ha....as you were writing so was...great minds and all that

 

[VeloCity]

Seriously even if Floyd had photos of motorcycles with blood bags it doesn’t actually prove that Armstrong doped. Even if you had more former riders coming out and saying he doped it doesn’t prove much either as it just gets labeled as “disgruntled ex-team-mates”

Well technically nothing short of a confession will actually "prove" that he doped, so that's kind of pointless. Besides, the folks who still believe that Armstrong was clean will never be convinced that Armstrong doped, regardless of the evidence. IMO the damage has already been done - in the cycling world, Armstrong's name is mud. No one believes that he was clean.

 

[Cloxxki]

Err, was the whole GJ deal perhaps premeditated to kill as much evidence as possible? Can we be sure this is not the case?

 

[Race Radio]

Ok...I have been resisting getting in anyway involved in this thread but here goes...

I've got to hand it to you Race....on the whole you have handled this er "defeat" pretty well....Props to you...I particularly enjoyed your joke about your weekly long ride with Polish being less tense....properly made me laugh.

Not much to say further than that really....I am avoiding any semblance of gloating as of yet...and have put on hold my idea for a new thread "Favorite predictions about the federal investigation that didn't come true"

Just one semi contentious thing to add though....way up thread Dim mentioned he was thinking or "hoping" perhaps that the USADA case would deal out the "justice" and then the feds would re open a case....

On that scale thing you guys used to quote at me...you know...the Grief one...I'd say that Dim's clearly still at 1...I like Dim so I don't want it to appear that I am singling him out, but honestly, that is about as likely as Contador winning the tour this year (Did I miss something?). As far as I would imagine any GJ testimony wouldn't be shared with USADA, and seeing as the investigation's thrust was fraud and not doping, I'm wondering what real "concrete" evidence of doping violations other than hearsay they would have unearthed that wasn't already available to WADA or USADA, and even if sanctions were imposed, I don't see how that would ever cause Novitsky (" he's like the Elliot Ness of Investigators"...ok just one funny quote) to re open proceedings.

Honestly....it looks like this one is done. And at the risk of winding anyone up, my advice would be to not get your hopes built up too much about a USADA case, or to air your "predictions" or "sources" too much over the next couple of months before the inevitable announcement of "no case to answer"...cos you know, once is carelessness...twice can be seen as stupidity.

Honestly though Race....I did laugh a lot at the Polish joke....very funny.

Peace

Thank you for the kind note.

Novitzky, as I have said many times, has zero input on if a case goes forward. While Lance tried hard to demonize him he was never the guy running the show. This was never more obvious then when he, and others, were only told of dropping of the case 30 minutes before the press release went out. Must have been odd to call up the witness that were scheduled to testify next week and tell them they were not needed.

I am hardly the only person surprised by the dismissal. Investigators from multiple agencies were very confident they had a strong case. This was communicated often not just to witnesses but to other agencies world wide.

I fully expect the full story of how/why the case was dropped to eventually be made public, but it would be hard to see how it would re-open the case. This is in USADA's hands now

 

[Race Radio]

Witness list

You forgot George, Levi, VDV, Jeff Spencer, Jorgi, Stephanie, Kevin Livingston and Dave Z

 

[DirtyWorks]

Ok...this is just my opinion...and I think also has some relevance to the lack of charges brought after the GJ testimonies...

You have built-in the assumption that the Grand Jury had nothing. No one knows that. What is known generally debunks the idea the GJ had nothing and the way the GJ was ended seems to keep a tight lid on the information generated by the GJ. It seems like another case of a purchased outcome.

The rest of the comment is more myth-maintenance.

 

[VeloCity]

On a side note... reading about it when or if Julie Mancur writes something? What will that achieve? Articles have been written plenty of times...books too...those who believe will and those who don't will ignore...it won't change anything.

Peace

Already has. The number of people - ie general public, non-cycling fans - who believe Armstrong was clean has dropped considerably over the years and is probably in the minority now, all thanks to the flow of info that has come out in the non-cycling media. The more that comes out, the more informed folks are about what was really going on and what Armstrong really was about. Hell, even Mancur herself has come around on Armstrong.

 

[straydog]

You forgot George, Levi, VDV, Jeff Spencer, Jorgi, Stephanie, Kevin Livingston and Dave Z

Supposing for a moment that the GJ testimony cannot be shared.....I honestly don't see any of the above incriminating themselves, which they would have to realistically to make anything stick.

As for Stephanie...again only relevant to pre cancer...nothing for 99-05.

JV? Well the enigma that is JV is a tough one. From what I've heard he has no direct evidence from his time on Postal, just suspicions.

This close to the end of their careers I don't see VDV, Levi or DZ saying anything. I think they will take this as their cue to put a line under it.

As to the Novitsky thing...of course, you're right...he didn't call it off...and I think it will be interesting to see why it was...but my feeling is that his Elliot Ness ness might have been exaggerated....I somehow suspect after Bonds and then this some of his bosses are going to be questioning his value for money/ hit rate.

Honestly, and this isn't "I told you so". But I think people might start questioning his instincts for going after the "money" shot of cases, and how it has possibly made him slightly myopic to the realistic chances of actually building a case.

Anyway we can discuss it more when I toast you at the Marmotte this year

Peace

 

[LarryBudMelman]

Thank you for the kind note.

Novitzky, as I have said many times, has zero input on if a case goes forward. While Lance tried hard to demonize him he was never the guy running the show. This was never more obvious then when he, and others, were only told of dropping of the case 30 minutes before the press release went out. Must have been odd to call up the witness that were scheduled to testify next week and tell them they were not needed.

I am hardly the only person surprised by the dismissal. Investigators from multiple agencies were very confident they had a strong case. This was communicated often not just to witnesses but to other agencies world wide.

I fully expect the full story of how/why the case was dropped to eventually be made public, but it would be hard to see how it would re-open the case. This is in USADA's hands now

It's all in the political arena now. Novitzky obviously doesn't control the disposition of the case, but to say he has "zero" input doesn't seem correct either.

Nixon was driven out of office in Aug. of 1974. I know the powers that be are shameless now, but there's no telling what will happen when the truth comes out and it will keep coming out no matter what happens. That's the nature of the truth.

Political pressure could re-open the case. Likely? No. But if USADA strips Armstrong, which I'm pretty confident of, then the burden is on Armstrong.

 

[BotanyBay]

"He was our only hope"

No, there is another.

What we don't know is if the current Grand Jury term has expired yet. They actually have the power to continue an investigation on their own (without the prosecutors) and even issue indictments without being asked to do so. So it will really depend on them.

Caveat: The above almost never happens, but I HAVE seen it happen before in the past.

Grand juries have previously surprised prosecutors before by "going indy" when they feel they're being snowed by the prosecutors, or when they feel the prosecutors are not being fervent enough. Grand jurors are allowed to call witnesses forward and ask their own questions.

 

[pmcg76]

Ok...this is just my opinion...and I think also has some relevance to the lack of charges brought after the GJ testimonies...

snipped for brevity

Peace

I agree with all you said but if Hincapie or Leiopheimer or some of the other Postal ex-riders have also testified and they match the testimonies of Landis, Hamilton, surely this would mean that the Landis, Hamilton testimonies are indeed valid.


If that actually happened and USADA get their hands on that info, I think that would be a pretty strong case.

 

[BillytheKid]

Thank-you. I’d like to say that I’ve matured during this process! I’m also gunning to become a Mod one day and Susan promised if I’m well behaved I will get the honor!

Seriously even if Floyd had photos of motorcycles with blood bags it doesn’t actually prove that Armstrong doped. Even if you had more former riders coming out and saying he doped it doesn’t prove much either as it just gets labeled as “disgruntled ex-team-mates” - You already have Weltz out there telling the world what they want to hear.

I just can’t see how USADA will get enough to amount to anything.

The only thing that could turn this is either Floyd releases his recordings of phone conversations between him and Armstrong – which would be illegal. Or Big George tells all. The likelihood of either those two events occurring is about as likely as a contaminated meat story being true!

I've said this all along, but perhaps some have not understood the term "smoking gun" which amounts to hard evidence. For the charges, being sought by the prosecutor I always believed that there had to be physical evidence of which only the 1999 samples are known to exist. If I where sitting on the GJ, I would have to say show me it. Civil charges and sanctions may be a different story. But that begs the question about wether or why of the 1999 samples being used as evidence. Were they "non admissible?"

 

[BotanyBay]

Yaroslav,

Please accept these Daisies as a token of my appreciation. And that horse head in your sheets? You know that was just a joke, right? I'm a kidder ;-)

Your friend,

Lance

 

[Cloxxki]

"He was our only hope"

No, there is another.

What we don't know is if the current Grand Jury term has expired yet. They actually have the power to continue an investigation on their own (without the prosecutors) and even issue indictments without being asked to do so. So it will really depend on them.

Caveat: The above almost never happens, but I HAVE seen it happen before in the past.

Grand juries have previously surprised prosecutors before by "going indy" when they feel they're being snowed by the prosecutors, or when they feel the prosecutors are not being fervent enough. Grand jurors are allowed to call witnesses forward and ask their own questions.

Are grand jurors all aware of this?

 

[LarryBudMelman]

All comes down to what you believe is proof.

Thank-you. I’d like to say that I’ve matured during this process! I’m also gunning to become a Mod one day and Susan promised if I’m well behaved I will get the honor!

Seriously even if Floyd had photos of motorcycles with blood bags it doesn’t actually prove that Armstrong doped. Even if you had more former riders coming out and saying he doped it doesn’t prove much either as it just gets labeled as “disgruntled ex-team-mates” - You already have Weltz out there telling the world what they want to hear.

I just can’t see how USADA will get enough to amount to anything.

The only thing that could turn this is either Floyd releases his recordings of phone conversations between him and Armstrong – which would be illegal. Or Big George tells all. The likelihood of either those two events occurring is about as likely as a contaminated meat story being true!

This is the basis of my back and forth with Maserati.

A faulty belief in what it means to "prove" something. Anyone who's conscious knows Armstrong is guilty. Think of all the stuff we have here, The GJ has multiples of this stuff WHICH IS THE PROOF.

The idea that there will be a "smoking gun" is the idea of a child.

 

[BillytheKid]

"He was our only hope"

No, there is another.

What we don't know is if the current Grand Jury term has expired yet. They actually have the power to continue an investigation on their own (without the prosecutors) and even issue indictments without being asked to do so. So it will really depend on them.

Caveat: The above almost never happens, but I HAVE seen it happen before in the past.

Grand juries have previously surprised prosecutors before by "going indy" when they feel they're being snowed by the prosecutors, or when they feel the prosecutors are not being fervent enough. Grand jurors are allowed to call witnesses forward and ask their own questions.

Armstrong is still under the threat of the USADA stripping him of titles. They are not a GJ and can act on far less a burden of proof. As we've seen today, that is a reality.

 

[Benotti69]

Are grand jurors all aware of this?

I bet that Novi and his team are informing them as we pontificate in the clinic.

Hence the fanboys still posting in fear that it aint over.

I bet the ladies in the Yellow Rose were singing, but were any of them fat?

 

[BotanyBay]

Are grand jurors all aware of this?

Usually not. Prosecutors don't go out of their way to explain their legal powers, as they want them to think that they must be led and "asked" to indict. But every so often, you get a renegade GJ that completely blindsides the prosecution and leaves them in the dust. My sister served on one once, and they ended up truly investigating a situation beyond where the prosecutors wanted to go. In this case, it was to help decide NOT to indict the person the prosecutors wanted them to. And it was only because the jury soon came to distrust the prosecutors.

 

[Benotti69]

Yaroslav,

Please accept these Daisies as a token of my appreciation. And that horse head in your sheets? You know that was just a joke, right? I'm a kidder ;-)

Your friend,

Lance

He aint that generous.

 

[BillytheKid]

This is the basis of my back and forth with Maserati.

A faulty belief in what it means to "prove" something. Anyone who's conscious knows Armstrong is guilty. Think of all the stuff we have here, The GJ has multiples of this stuff WHICH IS THE PROOF.

The idea that there will be a "smoking gun" is the idea of a child.

But that's the burden of proof with felony criminal charges. Civil and sanctions are much less.

 

[VeloCity]

I agree with all you said but if Hincapie or Leiopheimer or some of the other Postal ex-riders have also testified and they match the testimonies of Landis, Hamilton, surely this would mean that the Landis, Hamilton testimonies are indeed valid.


If that actually happened and USADA get their hands on that info, I think that would be a pretty strong case.

The thing about the USADA case is that they're focused solely on the doping aspect, which imo is probably going to be easier to "prove" than would be the fraud aspect that Novitzky was focused on. And that's the stuff - the doping - that most of us, I would surmise, are primarily interested in.

 

[BillytheKid]

He aint that generous.

Your hole Godfather theme is ridiculous. In sport there are plenty of places to get the juice for a price. Athletes are just clients.

 

[thehog]

I've said this all along, but perhaps some have not understood the term "smoking gun" which amounts to hard evidence. For the charges, being sought by the prosecutor I always believed that there had to be physical evidence of which only the 1999 samples are known to exist. If I where sitting on the GJ, I would have to say show me it. Civil charges and sanctions may be a different story. But that begs the question about wether or why of the 1999 samples being used as evidence. Were they "non admissible?"

The Feds also had samples sent over from the AFLD (not sure which year) but even if they were tested by the Feds and not in an approved lab etc. that may not amount to anything.

If the proper procedure hasn’t been followed then I doubt even a positive urine sample would amount to a sanction.

Now in saying all this I’m not sure what sort of evidence the Feds managed to gather. They were going for some time so they must have pickup up a lot. Their case was more based around finances rather than doping but I’m sure there’s some good stuff hidden away.

If you look at the T-Mobile trials. Riders testified that Kloden went to Freiburg for a blood transfusion in 2006. They listed down his drug usage and still no ban for our teflon friend. And those testimonies weren’t even from “disgruntled” teammates. Even in Germany they didn’t put Kloden away then there’s no hope of Armstrong in the US.