Velo d’Or 2023

[gregrowlerson]

I would think the 21st century is much more relevant than the 80s and 90s. The landscape is also way different, and the monuments are much lower variance than they have been in the past 30 years. Sanremo especially is no longer a race where classics riders are the underdog, which is gonna make combos with Ronde, Roubaix and even Liege much easier. The RvV route is much harder and favorable to a good Liege rider as well to the extent that a TdF winner and overwhelming Liege favorite actually beat MvdP there.

Pogacar has such a huge influence. One can say that MVDP probably wins RVV without him, but maybe he doesn't win MSR without him (and it's won by more of a sprinter type).

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I would think the 21st century is much more relevant than the 80s and 90s. The landscape is also way different, and the monuments are much lower variance than they have been in the past 30 years. Sanremo especially is no longer a race where classics riders are the underdog, which is gonna make combos with Ronde, Roubaix and even Liege much easier. The RvV route is much harder and favorable to a good Liege rider as well to the extent that a TdF winner and overwhelming Liege favorite actually beat MvdP there.

The only era where Sanremo was for the sprinters was mid-90s to mid-10s, so in that sense the 21st century is less relevant. As for variance, I think that says a lot more about the riders of this era than the routes. Ronde has had this route since 2012, yet no GC rider/Liège specialist was remotely close to winning it until Pogacar came along - and the likes of Kwiatkowski and Alaphilippe really went for it at some point too. The Sanremo route is unchanged (in fact, it's easier than in the years with Le Manie), but the way it's raced is radically different. Don't think you should dock riders in this era for focusing on a wider range of races and racing the classics more aggressively, just because ~3 generations of GC riders retreated from Ronde, Sanremo and often also Liège, Lombardia and the Worlds...

 

[Peyroteo94]

Vingegaard needs to win the Vuelta. If not, MVP deserves this.

 

[Red Rick]

The only era where Sanremo was for the sprinters was mid-90s to mid-10s, so in that sense the 21st century is less relevant. As for variance, I think that says a lot more about the riders of this era than the routes. Ronde has had this route since 2012, yet no GC rider/Liège specialist was remotely close to winning it until Pogacar came along - and the likes of Kwiatkowski and Alaphilippe really went for it at some point too. The Sanremo route is unchanged (in fact, it's easier than in the years with Le Manie), but the way it's raced is radically different. Don't think you should dock riders in this era for focusing on a wider range of races and racing the classics more aggressively, just because ~3 generations of GC riders retreated from Ronde, Sanremo and often also Liège, Lombardia and the Worlds...

Van der Poel bascially races tha narrowest range of races possible.

I was making a general comment variance and race availability. The variance between Sanremo, De Ronde, Roubaix and the Worlds is extremely low. MvdP and WvA were top 4 in all 3, Pedersen was 3x top 4 and a 6th, and Pog was 4th, 1st, DNS and 3rd. Low variance indicates it's much easier to rack up multiple wins if you're the best if you can do all those races.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Van der Poel bascially races tha narrowest range of races possible.

Only if you only consider the road. It's difficult to do a really extensive road programme if you also want CX and MTB world titles. Factoring his non-road programme in, he does a lot.

I was making a general comment variance and race availability. The variance between Sanremo, De Ronde, Roubaix and the Worlds is extremely low. MvdP and WvA were top 4 in all 3, Pedersen was 3x top 4 and a 6th, and Pog was 4th, 1st, DNS and 3rd. Low variance indicates it's much easier to rack up multiple wins if you're the best if you can do all those races.

And why has Sanremo changed? Firstly Cipressa is no longer raced at snail's pace which makes it harder for sprinters to do a decent Poggio, secondly the likes of Pogacar and Van der Poel are IMO simply better than their immediate predecessors which means a decent Poggio is no longer enough for the sprinters to compete. This is reflected by the leaders' Poggio ascents having been sped up much more than the sprinters' Poggio ascents in recent years (Ewan in 2021 being the one big exception). So docking this generation for lower variance is essentially docking this generation for being incredibly good and therefore a bad idea.

 

[topcat]

On the other hand, Van der Poel is only the second rider post-Merckx to win Worlds + 2 monuments in the same year. GT doubles have been way more common in the same period. So Boonen having done marginally better in 2005 really isn't that good of an argument to rate Van der Poel's season below a Tour-Vuelta double.

Winning Sanremo, Ronde and Roubaix in the same year has literally never been done, so empirically that is a much harder achievement than a GT double (even Giro-Tour). If Van der Poel had pulled that out of the bag this season (and he almost did) in addition to his world title, it would have been one of the greatest seasons of all time and the greatest since at least Roche (and it arguably beats that too, in which case it would probably have been the greatest season post-Merckx).

Roche’s 1987 season has only been bettered by Merckx and Coppi. Even if MVDP had won RVV, I don’t think it tops Roche’s season.
Ireland 1 Netherlands 0
Back to MVDP vs Vingo:
If Vingo wins the vuelta, does anyone think MVDP should still win the velo?
If Vingo podiums the vuelta, does he have any chance?

 

[Red Rick]

Only if you only consider the road. It's difficult to do a really extensive road programme if you also want CX and MTB world titles. Factoring his non-road programme in, he does a lot.

And why has Sanremo changed? Firstly Cipressa is no longer raced at snail's pace which makes it harder for sprinters to do a decent Poggio, secondly the likes of Pogacar and Van der Poel are IMO simply better than their immediate predecessors which means a decent Poggio is no longer enough for the sprinters to compete. This is reflected by the leaders' Poggio ascents having been sped up much more than the sprinters' Poggio ascents in recent years (Ewan in 2021 being the one big exception). So docking this generation for lower variance is essentially docking this generation for being incredibly good and therefore a bad idea.

When the Poggio trend is this consistent, for this many riders, it's not penalizing riders for being better invididually, it's taking into account a trend across the entire field.

Sanremo and De Ronde have also undergone a paradigm shift. Teams no longer bring a squad full of rouleurs to Sanremo, and more and more lighter types are giving RvV a shot.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

When the Poggio trend is this consistent, for this many riders, it's not penalizing riders for being better invididually, it's taking into account a trend across the entire field.

Sanremo and De Ronde have also undergone a paradigm shift. Teams no longer bring a squad full of rouleurs to Sanremo, and more and more lighter types are giving RvV a shot.

Why would changes to training regimes/equipment/things that can't be discussed in this subforum improve the climbing times of the puncheurs on the Poggio to a much greater degree than those of the sprinters? Especially when the best Poggio puncheurs are the same riders who are dominating the second tier on the cobbles (especially in Ronde) to an extent not seen in a very long time? Surely the huge gap between the big 6 and the rest throughout the season is a sign of an exceptional generation? And if so, surely the change to the status quo in Sanremo is mostly if not entirely a result of that gap?

I also think it's rather silly to discredit the achievements of Poggio puncheurs in this generation simply because Poggio puncheurs in previous generations were usually stupid enough to let the sprinter teams set the pace on Cipressa and sometimes also the first half of Poggio. With the benefit of hindsight, the sprinters probably should have been a little less dominant in Sanremo than they ended up being for a while had the non-sprinters and their teams approached the race differently.

 

[Netserk]

Giro-Vuelta has been done fewer times than Giro-Tour, but the latter is obviously harder. Frequency is a decent indicator, but it can't stand on its own.

A GT double can be done if you are dominant enough, while one-day races are more up to chance. Merckx was a more exceptional one-day rider than GT rider, but like other dominant GT riders, he won most (depending on what you count, all) of those he rode in his prime. Thus it was relatively "easy" to win the Giro-Tour double, while especially Ronde proved difficult for Merckx as it wasn't a very selective race back then, and he never managed the Ronde-Roubaix double.

 

[Blanco]

My main issue is a PN/TA win should be worth far more than half an MSR win. I'd put PN/TA on the same level of an MSR

Your main issue is very wrong...

 

[houtdffan]

Your main issue is very wrong...

take it up with nearly every ranking system created that ranks stage races near equal to a monument

Maybe it is not me who is wrong, it's the sentiment here that overvalues 1 day races

 

[Blanco]

If Vingo wins the vuelta, does anyone think MVDP should still win the velo?
If Vingo podiums the vuelta, does he have any chance?

1. No
2. No

 

[Escarabajo]

I have the question for those who knows the rules: Is there any subjectivity to the Velo d'Or 2023? or is it just a points prize?

I don't know about Ballon d'Or but neither Pele nor Maradona won it even once. Is that accurate of the best player of the year?

 

[topcat]

1. No
2. No

Now that Bala has retired, we agree nearly all the time.

 

[Blanco]

take it up with nearly every ranking system created that ranks stage races near equal to a monument

Maybe it is not me who is wrong, it's the sentiment here that overvalues 1 day races

In PCS for example it isn't the case. PN is worth like Amstel, monument worth almost double.
Rankings generally favors all wins and especially placings much more than it should, and we discussed this many times on this forum.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Giro-Vuelta has been done fewer times than Giro-Tour, but the latter is obviously harder. Frequency is a decent indicator, but it can't stand on its own.

That stat gets skewed by the Vuelta being the only major race to have moved to a completely different part of the calendar in non-prehistoric times.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

take it up with nearly every ranking system created that ranks stage races near equal to a monument

Maybe it is not me who is wrong, it's the sentiment here that overvalues 1 day races

 

[houtdffan]

In PCS for example it isn't the case. PN is worth like Amstel, monument worth almost double.
Rankings generally favors all wins and especially placings much more than it should, and we discussed this many times on this forum.

Huh?

Point scales

UCI Point scales and PCS point scales.

www.procyclingstats.com

A monument is worth 275. A WT stage race is worth 250, above a lessor 1-day stage race like CSS, which is worth 225

 

[Panda Claws]

In PCS for example it isn't the case. PN is worth like Amstel, monument worth almost double.
Rankings generally favors all wins and especially placings much more than it should, and we discussed this many times on this forum

Good luck winning a stage race without getting a decent chunk of additional points along the way though.

 

[Blanco]

Huh?

Point scales

UCI Point scales and PCS point scales.

www.procyclingstats.com

A monument is worth 275. A WT stage race is worth 250, above a lessor 1-day stage race like CSS, which is worth 225

You're right, my mistake, I mixed it with UCI rankings.

 

[Valv.Piti]

What would you say if Van der Poel had managed to follow and beat Pog in De Ronde?

Then I'd say Mathieu for sure. Remember, Tour of Flanders is the biggest and greatest race in my book

No but seriously, I think such a season (and especially the way he won those races) should be super difficult to beat, even if Vingegaard wins the Vuelta. But would still not be surprised if Vingegaard won, I'd just not agree.

 

[Gigs_98]

I haven't read through all these point systems so this isn't based on anything like that, but honestly, I think MvdPs track to the Velo d'or is surprisingly tricky. He basically has to hope for Remco to beat Roglic and Vingegaard in the Vuelta (many will disagree that Giro+Vuelta+TA+Catalunya beats 3 major one day races but I wouldn't at all be surprised if it's enough, especially with the Vuelta freshest in everyones mind) but then if Remco wins the Vuelta he might still snatch away the Velo d'Or by winning Lombardia.

It's very plausible all of this falls into place for MvdP, but it's pretty remarkable someone can have that kind of season and he still needs races to go his way to get this price. The success needed to win the Velo d'Or recently has really skyrocketed. Third season in a row with a rider winning at least 3 of the major races when I think the last time that happened was in 2005.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

its just a bit weird, MVDP was one Pogacar RVV entry away from a clean sweep in the monument classics he participated in this year + worlds. In any normal era that would be enough for the velo d'or.

But as pointed out, Vinge can still win 2 gts, Roglic as well, and what if Pogi wins Lombardia maybe or WC ITT or both, who knows?

 

[topcat]

In 2021, the famous five won 4 out of the 9 big races.
In 2022, the famous five won 6 out of the 9 big races.
In 2023, the famous five have won 7 out of 7 so far and will probably win the remaining 2.

View: https://youtu.be/DkDvkBTXrGQ

 

[wansteadimp]

I have the question for those who knows the rules: Is there any subjectivity to the Velo d'Or 2023? or is it just a points prize?

I don't know about Ballon d'Or but neither Pele nor Maradona won it even once. Is that accurate of the best player of the year?

The reason Pele and Maradona didn't win it was because they didn't qualify for it during their peaks. The Ballon d'Or was the European Footballer of the Year until the mid 90's. It then became an award for the best footballer from anywhere in the World playing club football in Europe. It didn't become the World Player of the Year award until 2007.