Velo d’Or 2023

[Panda Claws]

Yeah small races can only be a difference maker when all else is mostly equal. Winning Paris-Nice will pretty much always trump winning a heap of small races.
These races don't stack endlessly. Grand Tours and monuments do.

Question to me is always to what degree non-monument large one-day races stack (e.g. GW, AGR, Strade, CSS).
Can winning X of them ever equate to two monuments or a GT?

GT Stages can also never amount to more than a monument's worth imo whether you win four or nine in a season.

The way MvdP rides his season you cannot feasibly come up with any realistic kind of ranking in points imo that would put him above Pogacar. At that point you have to follow a different approach if you think that that kind of full-peak season has its own merits.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

The way MvdP rides his season you cannot feasibly come up with any realistic kind of ranking in points imo that would put him above Pogacar. At that point you have to follow a different approach if you think that that kind of full-peak season has its own merits.

You can't?

For Van der Poel and Pogacar, it's extremely close by the numbers, and also by uniqueness. In fact, with the numerical approach I proposed earlier in this thread, both would land at 309 points. Which makes me pretty happy with that approach.

Updated version of that top-10:
Van der Poel - (70 + 60 + 60)*1.5 + 24 = 309
Pogacar - 40 + 2*10 + 15 + (60 + 60)*1.2 + 30 + 30 + 30 = 309
Vingegaard - 100 + 2*10 + 32 + 2*8 + 30 + 30 = 228 (would have been 312 with a Vuelta win)
Roglic - 80 + 8 + 16 + 2*8 + 12 + 30 + 30 = 192 (would have been 288 with a Vuelta win)
Evenepoel - 2*8 + 4*8 + 60 + 30 + 30 = 168
Kuss - 80 + 8 = 88
Van Aert - 30 + 12 + 12 + 30 = 84
Philipsen - 15 + 10*4 + 24 = 79
A Yates - 20 + 10 + 30 = 60
Pidcock - 24 + 30 = 54
And fwiw, there are seasons where nobody even reaches Evenepoel's point total under this system. This year was nuts.

And fwiw, I put that method together before the Vuelta, so it isn't designed to let Van der Poel tie/beat Pogacar.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Objectively correct scores would be the following though:
- Mathieu Van der Poel: 3.39
- Tadej Pogacar: 4.49
- Jonas Vingegaard: 3.95
- Remco Evenepoel: 2.50
- Primoz Roglic: 3.55
- Wout Van Aert: 1.42
- Jasper Philipsen: 0.90

Did you just like my post which said every quantification is subjective and then post a quantification you claim to be objective?

 

[Miss Violet Smith]

If only Pogačar had had the decency to win either the TdF or the WC, instead of just getting on the podium, the Vélo d'Or winner would be a no-brainer.

(Edited to remove superfluous explanation.)

 

[Panda Claws]

You can't?

And fwiw, I put that method together before the Vuelta, so it isn't designed to let Van der Poel tie/beat Pogacar.

Yeah that's an interesting system. I'm going to see how it does in different years. It is actually very similar to what I posted underneath lol only I did not include multipliers.
If you add your multipliers MvdP would go to 5.15 and Pogacar would go to 5.16.

Edit: As per Netserk's reply underneath I initially didn't see that you quoted a system.

Did you just like my post which said every quantification is subjective and then post a quantification you claim to be objective?

It just works. (I was joking)

I tweaked it a bit:
Tadej Pogacar: 4.30
Mathieu Van der Poel: 3.43
Jonas Vingegaard: 3.46
Remco Evenepoel: 2.30
Primoz Roglic:3.14

 

[Netserk]

I would be very interested in seeing you detail a mathematical system without random stuff (e.g. MSR is 10x Lombardia) that would put MvdP on top given that he has won nothing of note aside from his big 3 wins. Which is still amazing mind you. It's just that Pogacar, Vingegaard and Roglic have performed so consistently.

The random stuff in this system is the combo bonus. Without it, the top-3 is:

1. Pogi (285)
2. Vingegaard (228)
3. Van der Poel (214)

 

[Elos Anjos]

Did you just like my post which said every quantification is subjective and then post a quantification you claim to be objective?

Stating that every qualification is subjective does not mean that they are all inventions. Some are more fair and can claim to represent reality better than others.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Yeah that's an interesting system. I'm going to see how it does in different years

2011 and 2010 with the scores prior to clinic issue-related suspensions in brackets, all scores of 50 and up:

2023
1 Van der Poel - (70 + 60 + 60)*1.5 + 24 = 309
1 Pogacar - 40 + 2*10 + 15 + (60 + 60)*1.2 + 30 + 30 + 30 = 309
3 Vingegaard - 100 + 2*10 + 32 + 2*8 + 30 + 30 = 228
4 Roglic - 80 + 8 + 16 + 2*8 + 12 + 30 + 30 = 192
5 Evenepoel - 2*8 + 4*8 + 60 + 30 + 30 = 168
6 Kuss - 80 + 8 = 88
7 Van Aert - 30 + 12 + 12 + 30 = 84
8 Philipsen - 15 + 10*4 + 24 = 79
9 A Yates - 20 + 10 + 30 = 60
10 Pidcock - 24 + 30 = 54

2022
1 Evenepoel - (80 + 70 + 60)*1.5 + 2*8 + 30 = 361
2 Pogacar - 40 + 3*10 + 60 + 30 + 30 = 190
3 Vingegaard - 100 + 10*3 = 130
4 Van Aert - 15 + 3*10 + 24 + 12 + 30 = 111
5 Hindley - 80 + 8 = 88
6 Van Baarle - 60 + 24 = 84
7 Van der Poel - 8 + 60 + 12 = 80
8 Roglic - 8 + 30 + 30 = 68
9 Carapaz - 4*8 + 32 = 64
10 Mohoric - 60
11 Mas - 32 + 24 = 56
12 Thomas - 20 + 30 = 50

2021
1 Pogacar - (100 + 60 + 60)*1.5 + 4*10 + 15 + 30 = 415
2 Roglic - 80 + 4*8 + 30 + 30 = 172
3 Alaphilippe - 10 + 70 + 24 + 30 = 134
4 Van Aert - 3*10 + 30 + 12 + 30 + 30 = 132
5 Carapaz - 20 + 70 + 30 = 120
6 Bernal - 80 + 2*8 = 96
7 Asgreen - 60 + 30 = 90
8 Van der Poel - 10 + 24 + 12 + 30 = 76
9 Colbrelli - 60
9 Stuyven - 60
11 Cavendish - 15 + 4*10 = 55

2020
1 Roglic - 40 + (80 + 60)*1.2 + 10 + 5*8 = 258
2 Van Aert - 2*10 + 30 + 60 + 24 + 30 = 164
3 Pogacar - 100 + 4*10 + 12 = 152
4 Alaphilippe - 10 + 70 + 24 = 104
5 Geoghegan Hart - 80 + 2*8 = 96
6 Hirschi - 10 + 15 + 24 + 30 = 79
7 Ganna - 4*8 + 30 = 62
8 Fuglsang - 60
8 Van der Poel - 60

2019
1 Roglic - 80 + 16 + 2*8 + 2*8 + 30 + 30 = 188
2 Bernal - 100 + 12 + 30 + 30 = 172
3 Alaphilippe - 2*10 + 60 + 30 + 30 = 140
4 Fuglsang - 8 + 60 + 30 = 98
5 Carapaz - 80 + 2*8 = 96
6 Gilbert - 2*8 + 60 = 76
7 Pedersen - 70
8 Valverde - 32 + 8 + 24 = 64
9 Bettiol - 60
10 Mollema - 60

2018
1 Thomas - 100 + 2*10 + 30 = 150
2 Sagan - 15 + 3*10 + 60 + 30 = 135
3 Froome - 20 + 80 + 2*8 = 116
3 Valverde - 2*8 + 70 + 30 = 116
5 S Yates - 80 + 3*8 + 8 = 112
6 Terpstra - 60 + 12 + 30 = 102
7 Alaphilippe - 3*10 + 30 + 30 = 90
7 Dumoulin - 40 + 32 + 10 + 8 = 90
9 Nibali - 60 + 24 = 84
10 Pinot - 2*8 + 60 = 76
11 Roglic - 10 + 30 + 30 = 70
12 Viviani - 4*8 + 5*8 = 64
13 Jungels - 60

2017
1 Froome - (100 + 80)*1.2 + 3*8 = 240
2 Valverde - 60 + 30 + 30 + 30 = 150
3 Van Avermaet - 60 + 24 + 30 + 30 = 144
4 Kwiatkowski - 60 + 12 + 30 + 30 = 132
5 Dumoulin - 80 + 2*8 + 30 = 126
6 Nibali - 32 + 16 + 8 + 8 + 60 = 124
7 Sagan - 10 + 70 + 24 = 104
8 Gilbert - 60 + 30 = 90
9 Quintana - 32 + 8 + 30 = 70
10 Kittel - 5*10 = 50
10 Matthews - 15 + 2*10 + 15 = 50
10 Uran - 40 + 10 = 50

2016
1 Sagan - 15 + 3*10 + (70 + 60)*1.2 + 30 = 231
2 Froome - 100 + 40 + 2*10 + 2*8 + 30 = 206
3 Quintana - 20 + 80 + 8 + 30 + 30 = 168
4 Chaves - 32 + 16 + 8 + 60 = 116
5 Van Avermaet - 10 + 70 + 30 = 100
6 Nibali - 80 + 8 = 88
7 Cancellara - 24 + 30 + 30 = 84
8 Cavendish - 4*10 + 30 = 70
9 Hayman - 60
9 Poels - 60
11 Valverde - 16 + 8 + 30 = 54
12 Bardet - 40 + 10 = 50

2015
1 Degenkolb - 8 + (60 + 60)*1.2 = 152
2 Froome - 100 + 2*10 + 30 = 150
3 Aru - 80 + 32 + 2*8 = 128
4 Valverde - 20 + 2*8 + 60 + 30 = 126
5 Rodriguez - 2*10 + 32 + 8 + 12 + 30 = 102
6 Sagan - 15 + 8 + 70 = 93
7 Kristoff - 60 + 24 = 84
8 Contador - 80
9 Nibali - 10 + 60 = 70
10 Quintana - 40 + 30 = 70
11 Porte - 30 + 30 = 60
12 Stybar - 24 + 30 = 54
13 Matthews - 8 + 30 + 12 = 50

2014
1 Contador - 80 + 2*8 + 30 + 30 = 156
2 Valverde - 16 + 8 + 15 + 24 + 24 + 30 + 30 = 147
3 Nibali - 100 + 4*10 = 140
4 Kwiatkowski - 70 + 12 + 30 = 112
5 Cancellara - 60 + 24 + 12 = 96
5 Quintana - 80 + 2*8 = 96
7 Degenkolb - 5*8 + 24 + 30 = 94
8 Gerrans - 30 + 60 = 90
9 Froome - 32 + 30 = 62
10 Kittel - 4*10 * 2*8 = 56
11 Kristoff - 60
11 D Martin - 60
11 Terpstra - 60

2013
1 Cancellara - 8 + (60 + 60)*1.2 + 12 + 30 = 194
2 Froome - 100 + 3*10 + 30 + 30 = 190
3 Nibali - 80 + 32 + 3*8 + 30 = 166
4 Rodriguez - 20 + 8 + 30 + 60 + 24 = 142
5 Costa - 2*10 + 70 + 30 = 120
6 Sagan - 15 + 10 + 24 + 24 + 30 = 103
7 D Martin - 10 + 60 + 30 = 100
8 Horner - 80 + 2*8 = 96
9 Quintana - 40 + 2*10 + 30 = 90
10 Valverde - 20 + 8 + 15 + 24 + 12 = 79
11 Cavendish - 2*10 + 6*8 = 68
12 Ciolek - 60

2012
1 Wiggins - 100 + 2*10 + 30 + 30 + 30 + 30 = 240
2 Boonen - (60 + 60)*1.2 + 30 + 30 = 204
3 Rodriguez - 32 + 16 + 3*8 + 3*8 + 60 + 30 = 186
4 Contador - 80 + 8 = 88
5 Gilbert - 2*8 + 70 = 86
5 Nibali - 20 + 24 + 12 + 30 = 86
7 Valverde - 10 + 32 + 3*8 + 15 = 81
8 Hesjedal - 80
9 Vinokourov - 70
10 Cancellara - 10 + 24 + 30 = 64
11 Gerrans - 60
11 Iglinskiy - 60
13 Cavendish - 3*10 + 3*8 = 54
13 S Sanchez - 24 + 30 = 54
15 Froome - 40 + 10 = 50

2011
1 Gilbert - 10 + 60 + 12 + 30 + 30 + 30 + 30 = 202
2 Evans - 100 + 10 + 30 + 30 = 170
3 Cavendish - 15 + 5*10 + 2*8 + 70 = 151
(Contador - 80 + 3*8 + 30 = 134)
4 Scarponi - 80 + 30 = 110 (32)
5 Cancellara - 24 + 24 + 12 + 30 = 90
5 Goss - 30 + 60 = 90
(Cobo - 80 + 8 = 88)
7 Froome - 80 + 8 = 88 (40)
8 T Martin - 10 + 8 + 30 + 30 = 78
9 A Schleck - 40 + 10 + 12 = 62
10 Wiggins - 32 + 30 = 62 (46)
11 Nuyens - 60
11 Vansummeren - 60
11 Zaugg - 60

2010
1 Cancellara - 2*10 + (60 + 60)*1.2 + 30 + 30 = 224
(Contador - 100 + 30 = 130) 30
2 Gilbert - 2*8 + 60 + 12 + 12 + 30 = 130 (118)
3 A Schleck - 100 + 2*10 = 120 (60)
4 Hushovd - 10 + 8 + 70 + 24 = 112
5 Nibali - 80 + 16 + 8 = 104
6 Freire - 60 + 30 = 90
7 Basso - 80 + 8 = 88
8 Cavendish - 5*10 + 4*8 = 82
9 Vinokourov - 10 + 60 = 70
10 Rodriguez - 10 + 16 + 8 + 30 = 64 (48)
11 Petacchi - 15 + 2*10 + 8 + 12 = 55

200-plus seasons since 2010:
1 Pogacar 2021 - 415
2 Evenepoel 2022 - 361
3 Van der Poel 2023 - 309
3 Pogacar 2023 - 309
5 Roglic 2020 - 258
6 Froome 2017 - 240
6 Wiggins 2012 - 240
8 Sagan 2016 - 231
9 Vingegaard 2023 - 228
10 Cancellara 2010 - 224
11 Froome 2016 - 206
12 Boonen 2012 - 204
13 Gilbert 2011 - 202

Pretty crazy that the five top seasons of the past 14 years in this system are all from the last 4 years!

 

[will-10]

The only sure thing about any points system is that it's wrong.

 

[Panda Claws]

The random stuff in this system is the combo bonus. Without it, the top-3 is:

1. Pogi (285)
2. Vingegaard (228)
3. Van der Poel (214)

I wouldn't immediately call that random. It is an evolution on the idea that 'small races can only differentiate and not define' while still making it possible that someone with 'only one' big win can beat someone with two big wins IF their other achievements were sizeable enough.

Scores

Yeah seems to be reasonable in terms of results. The multiplier can be argued about but as I put it above I think it is quite an elegant solution for Velo d'Or purposes.
We don't have a large sample size of years where we can test it out anyway given how almost nobody beyond the 70's (and these last 3 years) managed to win 3 big ones in a year. And in 2021 and 2022 there was no serious debate to be had.

 

[Netserk]

I wouldn't immediately call that random. It is an evolution on the idea that 'small races can only differentiate and not define' while still making it possible that someone with 'only one' big win can beat someone with two big wins IF their other achievements were sizeable enough.

It’s much easier to get the bonus as a one-day rider than as a stage racer. Froome only wins the award after winning two GTs back-to-back, a feat that is far more difficult than winning the two cobbled monuments back-to-back.

 

[Panda Claws]

It’s much easier to get the bonus as a one-day rider than as a stage racer. Froome only wins the award after winning two GTs back-to-back, a feat that is far more difficult than winning the two cobbled monuments back-to-back

Yeah that's fair but as far as a mathematical approach to have Van der Poel on top goes I only have one other solution and that is to cap off the amount of points that can be gained in 'non-biggest races'.

If you basically say that even if you win TA, E3, AGR, Romandie, CSS, Suisse those races are not big enough to matter more than let's say 1,5 monuments you could also manage it. I think this makes sense because at a certain point they don't make your year anymore.

Perhaps that would be more fair, if we could ever agree on what this number would be.

Would be very rigid though and is also basically another way of saying that "smaller races differentiate instead of define" because X would be the points you could get beyond the biggest wins so it would at some point be mathematically impossible to catch up to someone if they had a certain amount of big wins over you (which might be fair though).

If you have another idea to get Van der Poel high in rankings I'd love to hear it.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

It’s much easier to get the bonus as a one-day rider than as a stage racer. Froome only wins the award after winning two GTs back-to-back, a feat that is far more difficult than winning the two cobbled monuments back-to-back.

But getting the bonus is nowhere near a guarantee to come out on top even if you're the only one to do so. Boonen loses handily to Wiggins in 2012 and Cancellara 2013 and Degenkolb 2015 win by the narrowest of margins, I would say both are easily within the margin of error. The only double out of Sanremo/Ronde/Roubaix that wins handily is Cancellara 2010 and that's mainly by virtue of second place scoring lower than any other year listed.

Overall, there are 6 years where a classics-oriented season wins in my system (including the aforementioned seasons that I really think might as well be a tie, as well as 2023 because the tied seasons are both classics-oriented), 6 years where a GC-oriented season wins, and then 2021 and 2022 where someone combines the two for an insane score. Moreover the GC riders get closer to 7th and 8th wins (losing by 4 and 2 points in 2013 and 2015 respectively) than the classics riders (losing by 9 and 15 points in 2014 and 2018 respectively) do. Furthermore, the actual Vélo d'Or has had 5 winning classics-oriented seasons since 2010 and will get a 6th this year assuming Van der Poel or Pogacar wins. In addition to that, the 4 seasons where my system produces a different outcome than the VdO are the 4 seasons with the smallest margins between first and second in my rankings. So all in all, there is no tangible evidence to suggest my system is biased in favour of classics riders.

(NB: I have counted Evenepoel 2022 as an allround season here, Roglic 2020 as a GC-oriented season and Valverde 2014/2018, Alaphilippe 2019 and Pogacar 2023 as classics-oriented seasons here - I appreciate people may disagree with some of those but I'm not consistently pushing borderline cases in a way that inflated the total of either type of season orientation)

 

[Nick2413]

Ultimately this award is about a feeling and it doesn’t seem we’ve found a great way to quantify feelings yet. Even if the same outcomes were reached through different circumstances, many would pick a different rider. Factors like dominance displayed within a win itself, luck etc. are key to this kind of thing. No points system can take into account the dominant fashion VdP won all of his big 3 races, but that goes for things the other riders did as well.

 

[KZD]

Today its the day. I think Pogačar, Van der Poel and Vingegård all can possibly deserve the award but I think Van der Poel is going to take it for a few reasons.

- He is the least likely of the three to do a similar kind of season. He is older than both Pogačar and Vingegård and this season was by far his best ever with two monument wins plus the Road and CX World Championships, something that won't be easily repeated while Pogačar did a great season but still missed out of the Tour win and Vingegård missed out on the Vuelta win.

- Unlike Pogačar, he has never won the award even though this is also true to Vingegård but as I said above Vingegård still missed out on his second big goal of the season while Van der Poel only didn't win Flanders.

- Although he is not French, he is the grandson of one of the most popular French riders ever and being a French award these kind of details matter.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Today its the day. I think Pogačar, Van der Poel and Vingegård all can possibly deserve the award but I think Van der Poel is going to take it for a few reasons.

- He is the least likely of the three to do a similar kind of season. He is older than both Pogačar and Vingegård and this season was by far his best ever with two monument wins plus the Road and CX World Championships, something that won't be easily repeated while Pogačar did a great season but still missed out of the Tour win and Vingegård missed out on the Vuelta win.

- Unlike Pogačar, he has never won the award even though this is also true to Vingegård but as I said above Vingegård still missed out on his second big goal of the season while Van der Poel only didn't win Flanders.

- Although he is not French, he is the grandson of one of the most popular French riders ever and being a French award these kind of details matter.

Gooid points, I think it will go that way.

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

You can try with your numbers all day long, there's always be somebody with different numbers.

What makes Van der Poel a very strong contender is not just Sanremo-Roubaix-WC, but the way he won Sanremo and the WC. Dropping everybody, including the almost undroppable Pogacar twice in one season in one day races. Doesn't happen too often.

Of course Pogacar won Flanders and Lombardia solo too, Lombardia though wasn't nearly as impressive as Sanremo/Flanders/WC. But ok, add the Fleche, Amstel, Paris-Nice, Pogacar is ahead. But... the TdF second place will hurt him, so Mathieu getting it would be ok. As it would be if Pogacar gets it. The worst result of the season was 21st WC ITT. After that, 5th place at Tre Valli Varesine. Crazy stuff. Van der Poel doesn't have that consistency, but was there 3 out of 4 times in the end, only missed Flanders this year really.

I'd probably go for Van der Poel, got his big goals, Pogacar didn't get his biggest one.

 

[Nick2413]

VdP is worthy and all, but if Pogacar never rode the Tour he’d arguably have a better chance of winning this. The idea that he’s so good he’s judged by his own set of standards is real.

 

[Axel Hangleck]

Everybody seems to be forgetting MvdP's CX World title.....It is 2 wheels, isn't it? It absolutely should be counted in......I'm sure Pidcock's nomination is due to his XCO World title, and not just Strade Bianchi.....

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

It turns out that there is a second award for Classics rider of the year, so they can give the main award to Pogacar, and still give a gong to Van der Poel.
https://blog.lequipe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CP_VélodOr2023_Nommés_FR.pdf

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Seems odd that there is a shortlist, and that it has been left so late. Is that a restriction on the journalists who have been invited to vote (suggesting that they only vote in the last couple of days) or a top ten of those who have received votes to stoke interest?

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Almost no discussion here about the women's award: presumably Vollering for the main one and (if doubling up is avoided) Kopecky for the Classics?

And for the French awards: a sentimental gift to Pinot{?), and I wouldn't have a clue for the French Olympian award.

 

[Berniece]

It should be MVDP, how he won was way more impressive

 

[Froome]

Probably vingegaard will win because i don't believe that they will not give again the velon d'or for the rider who won the Tour two years in a row. MDVP also deserves to win.

 

[Elos Anjos]

VdP is worthy and all, but if Pogacar never rode the Tour he’d arguably have a better chance of winning this. The idea that he’s so good he’s judged by his own set of standards is real.

I agree. I think I have also advanced this idea a while ago in this thread.