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Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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Re:

topcat said:
I think Nibs has a chance after watching this stage. He looked more comfortable than Carapaz. Time will tell. Hard pace on Manghen and attack on the descent of Rolle.

His only chance is if Astana are riding Manghen for a Lopez attack. Then the game will be on. I pray for a Vino motivational speech. And by the way he said after the stage he had "good sensations".
 
I hope Nibali isnt reading this thread !!

His best chance tomorrow is to go early or go after Landa who will attack i think towards the end of the stage
If he can distance Carapaz he can afford to lose time to Landa

He needs someone up the road and the team need to set a very hard pace

Can he do it ? Well I am sure he is going to try and not settle for 2nd

Its win or bust
 
Re:

HelloDolly said:
I hope Nibali isnt reading this thread !!

His best chance tomorrow is to go early or go after Landa who will attack i think towards the end of the stage
If he can distance Carapaz he can afford to lose time to Landa

He needs someone up the road and the team need to set a very hard pace

Can he do it ? Well I am sure he is going to try and not settle for 2nd

Its win or bust

Like many fans, I'm hoping for something, too. Nibali is willing to risk blowing up completely for a shot at the win. The right set of circumstances must prevail, though. A chaotic first half of the stage would help. Hopefully Yates and one or two others (e.g., Lopez) will be feeling good and they and/or their teams can assist with the chaos.
 
Re: Re:

Rollthedice said:
topcat said:
I think Nibs has a chance after watching this stage. He looked more comfortable than Carapaz. Time will tell. Hard pace on Manghen and attack on the descent of Rolle.

His only chance is if Astana are riding Manghen for a Lopez attack. Then the game will be on. I pray for a Vino motivational speech. And by the way he said after the stage he had "good sensations".

Caruso and Pozzo could make it really hard on Manghen too though. Before an attack from Nibali.
 
If Nibali goes early, Movistar will just keep him hanging out there ready to pounce. I don't think he will have the legs to go from too far out. He may just rely on Carapaz having an unfortunate mishap (bonk, mechanical, crash (hope not)) to have any chance of winning this now. How much difference is there between Nibali/Carapaz/Roglic in a 17k ITT?
 
Re:

wheresmybrakes said:
If Nibali goes early, Movistar will just keep him hanging out there ready to pounce. I don't think he will have the legs to go from too far out. He may just rely on Carapaz having an unfortunate mishap (bonk, mechanical, crash (hope not)) to have any chance of winning this now. How much difference is there between Nibali/Carapaz/Roglic in a 17k ITT?
I think Roglic could gain 30 seconds on Nibali and 50 on Carapaz. But it's hard to assess, will depend a lot on how much energy they have left.

In my opinion Bahrein should be on the move even before Manghen. The first climb is long and Movistar won't be able to control evertrything. Send Caruso or Pozzovivo in the break with another teammate, and then wait to see what Yates and Lopez do.
 
Re:

wheresmybrakes said:
If Nibali goes early, Movistar will just keep him hanging out there ready to pounce. I don't think he will have the legs to go from too far out. He may just rely on Carapaz having an unfortunate mishap (bonk, mechanical, crash (hope not)) to have any chance of winning this now. How much difference is there between Nibali/Carapaz/Roglic in a 17k ITT?

That's a good question, the Giro finishes in Verona. I'd say 40-50 Nibali to Carapaz and the same Roglic to Nibali. If nothing happens on Manghen and it will not happen if Astana who has an in form leader, will not contribute (It would be madness to burn Bahrain's two doms there and they might even be up the road) then there's the end of the stage. Penultimate climb, descent and the uphill finish to put 1:10 into Carapaz and 40 sec to Roglic.
 
Re: Re:

SafeBet said:
wheresmybrakes said:
If Nibali goes early, Movistar will just keep him hanging out there ready to pounce. I don't think he will have the legs to go from too far out. He may just rely on Carapaz having an unfortunate mishap (bonk, mechanical, crash (hope not)) to have any chance of winning this now. How much difference is there between Nibali/Carapaz/Roglic in a 17k ITT?
I think Roglic could gain 30 seconds on Nibali and 50 on Carapaz. But it's hard to assess, will depend a lot on how much energy they have left.

In my opinion Bahrein should be on the move even before Manghen. The first climb is long and Movistar won't be able to control evertrything. Send Caruso or Pozzovivo in the break with another teammate, and then wait to see what Yates and Lopez do.

Movistar would chase that break like a mad men!
 
Re: Re:

Blanco said:
SafeBet said:
wheresmybrakes said:
If Nibali goes early, Movistar will just keep him hanging out there ready to pounce. I don't think he will have the legs to go from too far out. He may just rely on Carapaz having an unfortunate mishap (bonk, mechanical, crash (hope not)) to have any chance of winning this now. How much difference is there between Nibali/Carapaz/Roglic in a 17k ITT?
I think Roglic could gain 30 seconds on Nibali and 50 on Carapaz. But it's hard to assess, will depend a lot on how much energy they have left.

In my opinion Bahrein should be on the move even before Manghen. The first climb is long and Movistar won't be able to control evertrything. Send Caruso or Pozzovivo in the break with another teammate, and then wait to see what Yates and Lopez do.

Movistar would chase that break like a mad men!

Could be that there will never be a break tomorrow. It's possible that the peloton will be down to half by the time the descent from Cima Campo starts.
 
Re: Re:

Blanco said:
SafeBet said:
wheresmybrakes said:
If Nibali goes early, Movistar will just keep him hanging out there ready to pounce. I don't think he will have the legs to go from too far out. He may just rely on Carapaz having an unfortunate mishap (bonk, mechanical, crash (hope not)) to have any chance of winning this now. How much difference is there between Nibali/Carapaz/Roglic in a 17k ITT?
I think Roglic could gain 30 seconds on Nibali and 50 on Carapaz. But it's hard to assess, will depend a lot on how much energy they have left.

In my opinion Bahrein should be on the move even before Manghen. The first climb is long and Movistar won't be able to control evertrything. Send Caruso or Pozzovivo in the break with another teammate, and then wait to see what Yates and Lopez do.

Movistar would chase that break like a mad men!
But they can't chase everything. Or they will end up with only Landa, Carapaz and Pedrero by the time Manghen starts. Both Pozzovivo and Caruso look like Top10 climbers at the moment to me.
 
Realistically the peloton will be crushed on Cima Campo.

But also realistically, these are the kinds of stages where strength in numbers matters. Movistar won't be whittled down except maybe for losing like 2 guys and they'll calm down a bit and regroup going on to the Manghen.

Hard Cima Campo + infernal pace on Manghen might shatter the bunch in a way that from that point onwards no grupetto's come back, but that also means attacking in the dark with no teammates ahead.

Realistically I'm not sure he'll try and an attack on the hard part of Croce d'Aune and then hope to put a minute+ into Carapaz on Monte Avena is maybe what happens. He'd probably need a miracle + a super hard Manghen either way.

I will forever be mad about the Gavia.
 
In terms of long-range attacks, the model for Nibali would seem to me to be the stage to La Toussuire in the 2015 Tour. I don’t think anyone would argue that the Astana team that year was stronger than Sky, but on the Chaussy, they dropped pretty much the entire Sky team. The Sky domestiques came back on the descent, but by the time the leaders were approaching the top of the Croix de Fer, Froome was largely isolated again. Nibali, under admittedly debatable circumstances, attacked, and put 45 seconds into Quintana as well as 1:10 or so into Froome. Not the entire amount he needs against Carapaz, but if he could take 1:10 out of Carapaz tomorrow, he could have a realistic chance of taking the overall on Sunday.

So, my thinking is that if Bahrain Merida can push things on Menghen enough to drop everyone on Movistar except Carapaz and Landa, even if some riders make it back on the descent and flat that follows, an attack on Rolle could well be doable and sustainable. A very large ask, of course, but doable. The problem is the false flat descent to Croce d’Aune. In 2015 Nibali had Rolland to assist on the Mollard. He is likely to need someone from another team willing to work with him this time as well, I think.

There are a lot of things that have to line up to make this scenario happen, and the fact that one of them is completely outside of Nibali’s control (having someone from another team cooperate) makes this a fairly remote possibility. But is is a realistic one, I think.
 
Unzue is a huge tactic's head. He know that Movistar can't control all escapes on Cima Campo, because he neead a team also after Manghen. I think that a big escape go on and for sure it will contain Caruso and maybe Antonio Nibali. Pozzovivo will remain in the group to go all in on the hardest part of Manghen. Nibali can try an attack on last 2-3 km of Manghen but if he's not able to gain on Carapaz he have a second chance on the descent. Astana and Roglic possible allies.
 
Re:

gregrowlerson said:
Right now it looks like the hesitation on stage 14 is proving Nibali's and Roglic' undoing. If they were just half a minute closer then that would make a huge difference, and in hindsight it would have been so easy not to lose that time on the stage 14 run-in.

While waiting for a miracle to happen today, here is a breakdown of the final part of stage 14.

At the San Carlo finish, 32 sec. Carapaz

Nibs forcing at the top, Landa closes, Lopez, Roglic follow

Descent led by Nibs, then Rogla takes over gap down to 24 sec, 17 km to go.

15 km to go gap down to 17 sec

12 km to go 23 sec,

7.5 km to go 31 sec, Roglic in front.

The road starts to go up, the chase sits up, Yates re-enters the group, Nibs stays on Roglic wheel and Lopez finds himself in front not doing anything, then Majka is on a Sunday ride in front.

6,5 km to go it's already 50 sec. Roglic decides to pull.

Another km another 11 seconds, now Caruso is back and put to work.

Another km and it's already 1:21 at 4.2 to go. Caruso is done, Nibali starts to pull the group.

2,8 to go, the gap is shrinking, 1:15 Yates attacks

The others go slow, Caruso re-enters and start to pull again somehow, the gap grows to 1:50 with 1 km to go.

1:54 to the line
 
Re: Re:

Rollthedice said:
gregrowlerson said:
Right now it looks like the hesitation on stage 14 is proving Nibali's and Roglic' undoing. If they were just half a minute closer then that would make a huge difference, and in hindsight it would have been so easy not to lose that time on the stage 14 run-in.

While waiting for a miracle to happen today, here is a breakdown of the final part of stage 14.

At the San Carlo finish, 32 sec. Carapaz

Nibs forcing at the top, Landa closes, Lopez, Roglic follow

Descent led by Nibs, then Rogla takes over gap down to 24 sec, 17 km to go.

15 km to go gap down to 17 sec

12 km to go 23 sec,

7.5 km to go 31 sec, Roglic in front.

The road starts to go up, the chase sits up, Yates re-enters the group, Nibs stays on Roglic wheel and Lopez finds himself in front not doing anything, then Majka is on a Sunday ride in front.

6,5 km to go it's already 50 sec. Roglic decides to pull.

Another km another 11 seconds, now Caruso is back and put to work.

Another km and it's already 1:21 at 4.2 to go. Caruso is done, Nibali starts to pull the group.

2,8 to go, the gap is shrinking, 1:15 Yates attacks

The others go slow, Caruso re-enters and start to pull again somehow, the gap grows to 1:50 with 1 km to go.

1:54 to the line

And that's precisely where, if Carapaz stays in pink, the Giro is lost.
 
Re: Re:

Blanco said:
Rollthedice said:
gregrowlerson said:
Right now it looks like the hesitation on stage 14 is proving Nibali's and Roglic' undoing. If they were just half a minute closer then that would make a huge difference, and in hindsight it would have been so easy not to lose that time on the stage 14 run-in.

While waiting for a miracle to happen today, here is a breakdown of the final part of stage 14.

At the San Carlo finish, 32 sec. Carapaz

Nibs forcing at the top, Landa closes, Lopez, Roglic follow

Descent led by Nibs, then Rogla takes over gap down to 24 sec, 17 km to go.

15 km to go gap down to 17 sec

12 km to go 23 sec,

7.5 km to go 31 sec, Roglic in front.

The road starts to go up, the chase sits up, Yates re-enters the group, Nibs stays on Roglic wheel and Lopez finds himself in front not doing anything, then Majka is on a Sunday ride in front.

6,5 km to go it's already 50 sec. Roglic decides to pull.

Another km another 11 seconds, now Caruso is back and put to work.

Another km and it's already 1:21 at 4.2 to go. Caruso is done, Nibali starts to pull the group.

2,8 to go, the gap is shrinking, 1:15 Yates attacks

The others go slow, Caruso re-enters and start to pull again somehow, the gap grows to 1:50 with 1 km to go.

1:54 to the line

And that's precisely where, if Carapaz stays in pink, the Giro is lost.

And Vince has no one to blame but himself for playing mind games while the race winner rides up the road. Pure Hubris :(. Redeem your mistake today Shark!!!
 

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