Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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Plus, if you had also counted WCRRs (as you should, but I know it's much more laborious if you use PCS), you can add 7 podiums and 10 top 10s for Valverde, and his quantity suffocates every contemporary rider by a huge margin.

But Merckx' stats are of course ridiculous and would also be boosted a lot by inclusion of WCRR.
 
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Because I just can’t get enough of comparisons, below are numbers on GT wins, podiums and top 10’s for a selection of riders.

Nibali 4 wins, 11 podiums, 14 top 10’s
Valverde 1 win, 9 podiums, 19 top 10’s
Froome 7 wins, 11 podiums, 12 top 10’s
Contador 7 (9) wins, 7 (9) podiums, 12 (15) top 10’s
Sastre 1 win, 6 podiums, 15 top 10’s
Hinault 10 wins, 12 podiums, 12 top 10’s
Merckx 11 wins, 12 podiums, 15 top 10’s

No definite conclusions I want to draw from this, though I would say that the more dominant the rider, the nearer to 1 would be the ratio of wins to podium placings. But this list mostly was inspired by Valverde’s record for top 10 finishes in GT’s, so I do want to talk about that. Discounting Contador’s erased results, the next two riders on this list for top 10’s after Valverde are Merckx and Sastre, which is an interesting pairing. They clearly arrived at these numbers by much different careers. Both were obviously excellent GT riders, but one far exceeds the other. But they do provide a sort of framework in which to place the riders on this list.

Hinault and Merckx would seem to be much of a muchness in their numbers here, but Contador would be the next closest to them on this list. Froome is the next on the list, though his ratio for podiums versus top 10’s is better than Merckx’s. But Nibali is clearly more toward the Sastre/Valverde end of the spectrum presented here. Which sounds pretty dismissive, but this is more a case of praising with faint damns here, ‘cause this is quite a list.

The other thing I wanted to do was monument podiums versus top 10’s. I did not count World Championships, though. This was inspired by Valverde’s GT top 10’s record, but I thought I would take a quick look at these numbers also.

Nibali 3 wins, 6 podiums, 12 top 10’s
Valverde 4 wins, 10 podiums, 14 top 10’s
Hinault 5 wins, 7 podiums, 10 top 10’s
Merckx 19 wins, 30 podiums, 45 top 10’s

Clearly what stands out here is Merckx. I knew about his record in GT’s but had no idea just how dominant he had been in monuments. I count 19 wins. Cancellara I have at 7, Boonen at 7, and Gilbert at 5. I am sure there have been other dominant classics/monuments riders, but this has to stand out, especially in combination with his GT palmaries.

Valverde and Nibali are reasonably close to Hinault on this list, though they pale in comparison as GT riders. But as all-round riders, they are in a third tier behind Hinault and then in his own sphere Merckx. I would place Valverde ahead of Nibali, but not by much. Which is the point of this exercise, at long last - a comparison of Nibali and Valverde that incorporates a broader perspective on their accomplishments.
Based on 4 GT wins (including all 3) plus 3 monument wins for Nibali vs 1 GT win and 4 monument wins for Valverde I'd place Nibali above Bala. Of course Bala has a WC and that counts. Still Nibali's 4 GTS+ 3 monuments far outweigh anything Bala has accomplished IMO.
Podiums have much less value than wins.

Merckx rules, but then we all knew that!
 
Because I just can’t get enough of comparisons, below are numbers on GT wins, podiums and top 10’s for a selection of riders.

Nibali 4 wins, 11 podiums, 14 top 10’s
Valverde 1 win, 9 podiums, 19 top 10’s
Froome 7 wins, 11 podiums, 12 top 10’s
Contador 7 (9) wins, 7 (9) podiums, 12 (15) top 10’s
Sastre 1 win, 6 podiums, 15 top 10’s
Hinault 10 wins, 12 podiums, 12 top 10’s
Merckx 11 wins, 12 podiums, 15 top 10’s

No definite conclusions I want to draw from this, though I would say that the more dominant the rider, the nearer to 1 would be the ratio of wins to podium placings. But this list mostly was inspired by Valverde’s record for top 10 finishes in GT’s, so I do want to talk about that. Discounting Contador’s erased results, the next two riders on this list for top 10’s after Valverde are Merckx and Sastre, which is an interesting pairing. They clearly arrived at these numbers by much different careers. Both were obviously excellent GT riders, but one far exceeds the other. But they do provide a sort of framework in which to place the riders on this list.

Hinault and Merckx would seem to be much of a muchness in their numbers here, but Contador would be the next closest to them on this list. Froome is the next on the list, though his ratio for podiums versus top 10’s is better than Merckx’s. But Nibali is clearly more toward the Sastre/Valverde end of the spectrum presented here. Which sounds pretty dismissive, but this is more a case of praising with faint damns here, ‘cause this is quite a list.

The other thing I wanted to do was monument podiums versus top 10’s. I did not count World Championships, though. This was inspired by Valverde’s GT top 10’s record, but I thought I would take a quick look at these numbers also.

Nibali 3 wins, 6 podiums, 12 top 10’s
Valverde 4 wins, 10 podiums, 14 top 10’s
Hinault 5 wins, 7 podiums, 10 top 10’s
Merckx 19 wins, 30 podiums, 45 top 10’s

Clearly what stands out here is Merckx. I knew about his record in GT’s but had no idea just how dominant he had been in monuments. I count 19 wins. Cancellara I have at 7, Boonen at 7, and Gilbert at 5. I am sure there have been other dominant classics/monuments riders, but this has to stand out, especially in combination with his GT palmaries.

Valverde and Nibali are reasonably close to Hinault on this list, though they pale in comparison as GT riders. But as all-round riders, they are in a third tier behind Hinault and then in his own sphere Merckx. I would place Valverde ahead of Nibali, but not by much. Which is the point of this exercise, at long last - a comparison of Nibali and Valverde that incorporates a broader perspective on their accomplishments.
Good work here.
I think an excellent comparison for Nibali is Gimondi.

GTs
Nibali 4 wins, 11 podiums, 14 top 10’s
Gimondi 5 wins, 12 podiums, 18 top 10's

Monuments
Nibali 3 wins, 6 podiums, 12 top 10’s
Gimondi 4 wins, 10 podiums, 19 top 10's

Gimondi also won a WC and podiumed a couple more, which places him in a tier above Nibali (and Valverde). If Nibali won a WC/Olympics before retiring I would probably put him in the same tier as Gimondi.
At the moment I agree Nibali and Valverde belong to the same tier. Wether you take one career over the other is a matter of personal preference and I wouldn't argue against either opinion.
 
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I got nothing against Nibali, but how much sense does it make to count wins and podiums and stuff? Every race has different conditions, a different startlist quality, a difference in how much how many riders fight for the win, then there is different team support, and as much as I love lists, I just can't see how counting really helps to answer a question of who is the better rider. Not even talking about riders of other times here. When Merckx won the world was far from the professional cycling world of today.
Nibali and Valverde might be rather comparable, but in the end... I would look at each race, not count wins, 1+1. :) And sometimes you just can't decide who's better.
 
Good work here.
I think an excellent comparison for Nibali is Gimondi.

GTs
Nibali 4 wins, 11 podiums, 14 top 10’s
Gimondi 5 wins, 12 podiums, 18 top 10's

Monuments
Nibali 3 wins, 6 podiums, 12 top 10’s
Gimondi 4 wins, 10 podiums, 19 top 10's

Gimondi also won a WC and podiumed a couple more, which places him in a tier above Nibali (and Valverde). If Nibali won a WC/Olympics before retiring I would probably put him in the same tier as Gimondi.
At the moment I agree Nibali and Valverde belong to the same tier. Wether you take one career over the other is a matter of personal preference and I wouldn't argue against either opinion.
Yep, I agree on this. And I would add that no one of all other greatest riders in this century (Bettini, Boonen, Contador, Cancellara, Froome, Gilbert and Sagan) is not in tier above these two.
 
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I do think the results show that Nibali and Valverde are on a similar level to each other and as all rounders above the rest of the peloton from this century. Nibali has an edge when it comes to GT's while Valverde has the edge for one day races and pure overall victories. So it really comes down to personal preference between the two.

However, the stats are interesting to look at.
 
Not exactly a strong supporting cast if the latest rumors are true. Weening, De Kort, Ciccone, Brambilla, Bernard, Mosca, Conci and his brother. No Porte or Mollema. I guess Mollema is targeting the classics but I wonder what the plan for Porte is (Vuelta?).
 
Not exactly a strong supporting cast if the latest rumors are true. Weening, De Kort, Ciccone, Brambilla, Bernard, Mosca, Conci and his brother. No Porte or Mollema. I guess Mollema is targeting the classics but I wonder what the plan for Porte is (Vuelta?).
There aren't going to be any strong GC teams at the Giro. Who is Ineos going to bring in support of Carapaz? I think Dunbar and Sosa (or was it Hart and Sosa) were doing the Vuelta. So two of them are ruled out. Dennis and Ganna will also want to go for the ITT's so how far are they willing to pull their weight? If Amador doesn't go to the Tour, they could bring him. Then who? Henao? So that's possibly Henao, Hart and Amador. Good guys but not "they're gonna tear it up" -good.

Quickstep has Knox, Serry and Cattaneo in support of Evenepoel most likely. Who does EF have left that's not going to the Tour to support Carthy, or Bora for Majka?
 
Crazy that we're talking about guys like Carthy, Majka, and a first timer like Evenepoel as part of the top tier of contenders. Sure, it'll be fun regardless, but the Giro really is a 'B' race this year, at least GC-wise. Nibali should go ahead and join the party at the Tour and give us another triple threat.
 
Crazy that we're talking about guys like Carthy, Majka, and a first timer like Evenepoel as part of the top tier of contenders. Sure, it'll be fun regardless, but the Giro really is a 'B' race this year, at least GC-wise. Nibali should go ahead and join the party at the Tour and give us another triple threat.
There is also Fuglsang, and half the forum thought he was gonna win the TDF last year, so he should count?
 
Trek support for Nibali at the Giro will be fine. Ciccone as the main man, cameos from Antonio and this young hope Weening, Brambilla in good shape is suitable, Conci is no slouch. They'll train together with Slongo at altitude in Italy (Nibali's favorite Passo San Pellegrino) in July , all good.

As for the field, we have a rematch of first and second from last year plus a young hope and an old hope. That's about it.
 
Mostly, lotsa teams scared about october and racing...
Nonetheless with the calendar changes he'll have a real shot at Worlds, that imho suits him way way better than OG.
It's tricky, it'll be before the Giro and I don't think he'll be 100%. More like LBL shape last year which I don't think it's enough plus lots of rivals with TdF form. And he said Giro is his no. 1 target.
 
Dont worry, there will be plenty of more guys suiting up in October. Lots of riders wants revenge for the Tour as usual. Cant wait to see the final route.
How do you mean? You think somebody who did the Tour, but didn't live up to expectations, will be able to not only prolong his form, but be rested as well with the Giro only starting 2 weeks later?

Maybe if one of those guys crashes in the first week and decides to get out to shift focus on the Giro. Otherwise i don't see it happening this year. Shifting focus towards the Vuelta seems far more likely.
 
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Slongo says Nibali should be competitive right from the beginning, Strade on August 1st. He should be at 100% at the Worlds and keep the shape for four weeks. At the end of September and October, Slongo says the temps are adequate for better recovery.

" It just changes that we will try to be in shape right away and then try to handle the shape differently. If we understand that in Sanremo and Lombardy we will already be in shape, unlike in other years, in which generally the shape slowly rises, we could manage the approach to the Giro d'Italia with periods of unloading. The perspective changes a little bit, if the condition arrives first instead of gradually increasing we try to keep it or decrease it slightly."
 

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