Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

Today was the easiest of the first week muritos. No matter how you look at it, losing 30s doesn't look good. At this rate he might get to the first rest day almost 2 minutes behind in GC.

Its not the murito ...its how its raced

According to soem reports that was a record for a 10 minute climb ....very fast

These speeds will come down as the Vuelta progresses

Yesterday's climb had been used before in junior races and in a U23 race that dissapeared from the calendar long time ago, but there is no record of it being used in an elite pro-race. It's no surprise the best riders in the world set a new record the first time they do it in a WT race.
Fortunately they will ride two similar climbs this weekend where there is a history record. We will see if it's Nibali being slow or the others being faster than before.

 

[Eclipse]

Today panned out pretty well for him I think. Could have been trouble on that very steep punchy climb with the others really hammering it but he managed steadily, did get a bit distanced but never lost too much and then got back on on the descent without much hassle. Didn't feel like he was popping today just that he doesn't quite have that top end but the same was true for a lot of contenders. A good hard race like this should be of benefit to him come week 3 too as I feel others are far more likely to fade.

 

[Forever The Best]

Passing the day without losing time, good day for him.

 

[ice&fire]

Today is a bad sign of things to come this weekend

 

[Forever The Best]

Re:

Today is a bad sign of things to come this weekend

He was over the top with the likes of Aru and Chavez, which was much better than yesterday.

 

[Climbing]

If they keep riding this hard, it will benefit him in the end.
It looked better today and tomorrow there might some favorable terrain.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

If they keep riding this hard, it will benefit him in the end.
It looked better today and tomorrow there might some favorable terrain.

Indeed. Hope Contador will continue with these attacks on all terrain since Frrome seems keen to cover by himself every Berto move even if the Spaniard is minutes down on GC. The murito tomorrow doesn't look that hard, hopefully he can keep up.

 

[portugal11]

Xorret de cati and cumbre del sol will be crucial for nibali. He needs to lose only 40 seconds in those climbs. I don't think he is able to do that. If he does, he and contador will destroy the sky's train and froome

 

[dacooley]

Re:

Xorret de cati and cumbre del sol will be crucial for nibali. He needs to lose only 40 seconds in those climbs. I don't think he is able to do that. If he does, he and contador will destroy the sky's train and froome

what will change if nibali loses 1 minute instead of 40''? it's clearly all down to nibs finding an opportunity for ambush. he obviously won't this race on pure uphill watts.

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

Xorret de cati and cumbre del sol will be crucial for nibali. He needs to lose only 40 seconds in those climbs. I don't think he is able to do that. If he does, he and contador will destroy the sky's train and froome

what will change if nibali loses 1 minute instead of 40''? it's clearly all down to nibs finding an opportunity for ambush. he obviously won't this race on pure uphill watts.

If he loses 40 seconds, he will be one minute down. He will lose (at least) 1.30 minutes to froome in the time trial and I think nibali is able to gain 2.30/3 minutes to froome in a ambush. But you're right, 40 seconds or 1 minutes is almost the same.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

Xorret de cati and cumbre del sol will be crucial for nibali. He needs to lose only 40 seconds in those climbs. I don't think he is able to do that. If he does, he and contador will destroy the sky's train and froome

what will change if nibali loses 1 minute instead of 40''? it's clearly all down to nibs finding an opportunity for ambush. he obviously won't this race on pure uphill watts.

If he loses 40 seconds, he will be one minute down. He will lose (at least) 1.30 minutes to froome in the time trial and I think nibali is able to gain 2.30/3 minutes to froome in a ambush. But you're right, 40 seconds or 1 minutes is almost the same.

Don't think he will lose 1.30 in the ITT, my prediction is between 1 and 1.15 based on Giro and the fact Dumoulin is better TT:er than Froome.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Xorret de cati and cumbre del sol will be crucial for nibali. He needs to lose only 40 seconds in those climbs. I don't think he is able to do that. If he does, he and contador will destroy the sky's train and froome

what will change if nibali loses 1 minute instead of 40''? it's clearly all down to nibs finding an opportunity for ambush. he obviously won't this race on pure uphill watts.

If he loses 40 seconds, he will be one minute down. He will lose (at least) 1.30 minutes to froome in the time trial and I think nibali is able to gain 2.30/3 minutes to froome in a ambush. But you're right, 40 seconds or 1 minutes is almost the same.

Hazallanas -> Sierra Nevada is perfect. Unfortunately, there's 50km before Hazallanas which is completely flat so the break has to come before then, or at least drop Froome's domestiques somehow. Orica can help here by sending Yates x2 up the road (hopefully by then they'll still be within 2 minutes or so) and forcing them to chase if Nibali or Contador or Chaves isn't already up there. The climb to Sierra Nevada is perfect for this: long and not steep. It's for a proper diesel, so it will really matter how many teammates you have, or allies on the road. If Froome is left chasing a minute back without teammates (extremely unrealistic scenario but whatever) then he could lose a lot of time if it isn't one vs one, and rather one vs two or even three. It's also above 2000m which helps Nibali, or at least has helped Nibali in recent years.

 

[skippo12]

Stage 7 will be dangerous if somebody like Contador or Chavez tries something on the Castillo climb. 2km at 7%+ not far away from the finish.
I love that the Vuelta is raced more agressive than the Giro or the Vuelta but the amount of muritos makes it nearly impossible for him to win the race. Maybe his team can make for harder stages before they hit a wall. Agnoli, Pelizotti and Visconti are improving and it is his best chance to tire his opponents early in the stage.
Next year he needs a better team and Pozzo is definitely a good start but some capable guys for cross wind stages and echelons are more important in my opinion. A guy like Westra that can guard him in the peloton and makes sure that he is in good position in the important moments.
At this point Bahrain-Merida has failed to position Nibali at the front on every single murito of the first week. Starting a climb 50m behind Froome isn`t going to work and I think he lost a lot of energy/ time in his attempts to close the gap.

I hope that next year Nibali gets a useful team. i cannot remember a Grand Tour champion of his caliber with a worse team exept for Ullrich in 2003.
Agnoli so far was his best helper and Pelizotti could be useful later in the race. Visconti is looking good as well but simply isn`t a helper and never buries himself for a leader. Boaro is not up to the task to protect Nibali on the flat but at least tries.
The rest isn`t showing anything. His brother, Novak and Cortina are among the first riders dropping from the peleton no matter the profil.

Hoping for long range attacks in the 3rd week will only work with the help of other teams. Maybe Contador, the Orica trio or Aru will try something and ally against Froome similar to Quintana and Contador last year.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

i cannot remember a Grand Tour champion of his caliber with a worse team exept for Ullrich in 2003.

Tom Dumoulin, '17 Giro.

But I agree. switch Froome and Nibali's teams, different story.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

To sum up: unrealistic scenarios.
Nibali and Contador will destroy nobody but themselves on multiple mountains stages.

 

[Rollthedice]

Positioning is key today on Castillo, there's narrow city roads and cobbles. The climb is not bad for Vincenzo.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

At this point Bahrain-Merida has failed to position Nibali at the front on every single murito of the first week. Starting a climb 50m behind Froome isn`t going to work and I think he lost a lot of energy/ time in his attempts to close the gap.

He was actually ahead of Froome at the bottom of Ermita Santa Lucia, where he lost the most time.

I agree that Bahrain has been bad thus far, but they did an acceptable TTT and Delfino's shape seems on the rise.

 

[Climbing]

He looked a bit weak until now as expected, but with some determination and panache gained seconds here and there instead of losing.
Could have easily been 1 minute behind, though there are still some unfavorable stages coming where he has to try and limit the damage.

 

[skippo12]

Re: Re:

i cannot remember a Grand Tour champion of his caliber with a worse team exept for Ullrich in 2003.

Tom Dumoulin, '17 Giro.

But I agree. switch Froome and Nibali's teams, different story.

Agree...the team was equally bad but although Dumoulin was a great rider before he wasn`t considered as one of the top 5 GC riders. I don`t expect to see him with a supporting cast that bad again if Sunweb tries to challenge Froome next year.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

i cannot remember a Grand Tour champion of his caliber with a worse team exept for Ullrich in 2003.

Tom Dumoulin, '17 Giro.

But I agree. switch Froome and Nibali's teams, different story.

Agree...the team was equally bad but although Dumoulin was a great rider before he wasn`t considered as one of the top 5 GC riders. I don`t expect to see him with a supporting cast that bad again if Sunweb tries to challenge Froome next year.

Kelderman is easily good enough to support Dumoulin. And I imagine Oomen will be pretty helpful by then too

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

i cannot remember a Grand Tour champion of his caliber with a worse team exept for Ullrich in 2003.

Tom Dumoulin, '17 Giro.

Not sure. His team was so weak because Kelderman crashed out. With Kelderman that team is clearly stronger than Bahrein Merida right now.

Positioning is key today on Castillo, there's narrow city roads and cobbles. The climb is not bad for Vincenzo.

Yeah the climb is a bit like Bergamo alto, the last climb on stage 15 of this years giro, and Nibali was amazing there. He was so freakin close of dropping everyone else, so close.

 

[Climbing]

Re: Re:

Positioning is key today on Castillo, there's narrow city roads and cobbles. The climb is not bad for Vincenzo.

Yeah the climb is a bit like Bergamo alto, the last climb on stage 15 of this years giro, and Nibali was amazing there. He was so freakin close of dropping everyone else, so close.[/quote]

True, this should suit Nibali well enough, though Bergamo was way later during the Giro.

 

[HelloDolly]

Nibali did fine on Xorret de Cati in 2010 ...not as fast as Poels in 2016 or Valverde& Evans in 2009 but not far behind either

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Nibali did fine on Xorret de Cati in 2010 ...not as fast as Poels in 2016 or Valverde& Evans in 2009 but not far behind either

Long time ago, he was with Purito, Anton, Tondo. Problem is, the likes of Froome, Berto and Chaves climb at Roberto Heras level while Nibs went backwards on these type of climbs. Hopefully he can take a few seconds back on the descent to the line.

 

[portugal11]

He should do the yo yo style on xorret de cati! Sky will burn him in the first half of the climb