the delgados said:
I'm not the brightest log on the yuletide fire, so I apologize in advance for what may be a stupid question.
That said, how the hell did the Astana's --Nibali included-- ride away from one of the best classic riders of all time? I mean, it's not like Fabian was trying to conserve energy--the Schleck guys are done. He had nothing to lose by bridging the gap created by the Astana's. In fact, he was Trek's best chance for glory in le Tour.
I will try to address this directly and briefly. It is answered, in bits and pieces, in earlier posts in the thread, but let me see if I can help. The cobble classics are about far more than strength, or climbing ability. If you take the strength of Cancellara, and match that to the bike handling skill of Danny McAskill, you still only have a 50/50 chance of the top five - at best. You have to manage to get the right position entering cobbled sections. You must have luck in not having a mechanical. One flat - and you are gone, gone, gone. Your equipment must be right. Your skills must be top-notch. Your strength must be excellent (but you don't need to be Canc or Kittel). Your tactical senses must be excellent. And your luck must be good. There are 198 other riders who are also aiming for the same 2 road positions you are aiming for. You have to manage to beat them all.
On the cobbles, an experienced man can gain time on inexperienced rivals. Thus, a break with one or two minutes, with 5 sections of pave to go, is not much danger. Unless that break contains experienced cobbles men. On the other hand, once you are on that 4th section, if you are good, you stand a good chance of GAINING time on even your BEST rivals. Only in the front is the road clear. Once you are behind, every rider in front of you can cause delays, even if only a second or two - it always hurts your time. Cooperation and drafting are important, but play a lesser role than on clear roads.
ESPECIALLY in the rain. When it is dry, the riders will go off the cobbles, and ride in the dirt, where it is smoother. When it is dry, you often have two, or three lines you can take through the cobble sections. When it is wet, you may have only one. Just one. Single file.
Think of the break between top riders you are used to seeing in MTB. Now think crossing MTB and road racing.
There is a better documentary film, but I could not find it. However, this may give you a taste of what it is like:
Paris-Roubaix 1988
And remember, THIS day was in the rain. The cobbles and road were slicker than snot. These guys were ice-skating on corners. Knowledge of the corners counted, big-time.
Nibali was fortunate and his team worked hard. He did not need magic or a sack of dope to do what they did today. However, the energy they used today will cost them in future stages. IF we see further such outstanding performances in the mountains - feel free to let your radar sense roam.
This is not the vid I was looking for, but it shows
P-R 2001, Aus coverage, P-R in the rain.