Vuelta '20: Stage 1: Irún - Arrate. Eibar (10/20/2020)

[Luthor]

and he will probably decide today to be domestique again.

it is what it is. On to next year for our Dumo fans. Not much to enjoy here. Well unless you're also a roglic fan. but i aint

I hope not. Kuss looked stronger than Roglic today and there is also Bennett who looked better today than TDF. I wonder if they will try to keep one of them in contention but neither of them has a decent TT for GC.
Yes, next year I'm really hopeful he will have the time to come stronger. I don't mind Roglic winning but he already got a lot this year. I wanted Dumo to at least get the podium.

 

[Danskebjerge]

I had high hopes for him but not every youngling can be a star... Oh well, hope he can win a stage at least...

At least it's easier to win a stage in this way than being "trapped" like Fuglsang is in the Giro right now ...

 

[gunara]

It does tend to favor their type of riders. At the same time, Movistar had a poor buildup to the TdF and came into it out of sorts. They looked pretty strong by the third week with Mas in the front group and Valverde up there around the front and Soler and Verona in just about every break.

Yeah, but when Contador retired - and Landa almost completed his transformation into a meme - it looked like all doom and gloom for GT win, while France were hyped up with real and fake promises, and Aru or even Nibali still looked very reliable.

 

[Bolder]

I posted earlier that the way the stages are structured that strong GC teams will ride hard until the ITT because the last week is easier than the first two weeks - So expect more attacking racing and be patient in waiting for a breakaway.

I didn't watch the stage -- have to get some work done this fall -- but my initial thought was why would Roglic go for red so early? Let someone else take the jersey for a while etc. Right now he's just consigned Dumoulin to domestique duty. Maybe that's where TD is at this year but already we've got a situation similar to the TdF, where Roglic might be just taking 6 seconds here and 4 seconds there but not delivering a knockout blow.

 

[luckyboy]

I love the Vuelta.

 

[roundabout]

I didn't watch the stage -- have to get some work done this fall -- but my initial thought was why would Roglic go for red so early? Let someone else take the jersey for a while etc. Right now he's just consigned Dumoulin to domestique duty. Maybe that's where TD is at this year but already we've got a situation similar to the TdF, where Roglic might be just taking 6 seconds here and 4 seconds there but not delivering a knockout blow.

I think the only one who ever delivered a knockout blow on this climb was Contador in 2009.

I think Roglic rode very smartly today, fwiw.

 

[Luthor]

Actually going by the names the Vuelta seems a bit like the bigger race atm.

It is. But tbf for Giro they had some good names at the start as well but they dropped. If Roglic, Carapaz and Mas drop tomorrow, you will get the same GC field as Giro quality wise. Dan Martin red jersey, basically another Kelderman.

 

[gunara]

I didn't watch the stage -- have to get some work done this fall -- but my initial thought was why would Roglic go for red so early? Let someone else take the jersey for a while etc. Right now he's just consigned Dumoulin to domestique duty. Maybe that's where TD is at this year but already we've got a situation similar to the TdF, where Roglic might be just taking 6 seconds here and 4 seconds there but not delivering a knockout blow.

This supposed strategy could also bite him in the end, all the same. Since taking seconds could also be all the buffer you need to win the whole thing.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

This supposed strategy could also bite him in the end, all the same. Since taking seconds could also be all the buffer you need to win the whole thing.

what do you mean? It has never backfired on Roglic to not take as much time as possible. Nope, can't think of a single race where he could've been more aggressive in hindsight.

 

[gunara]

It is. But tbf for Giro they had some good names at the start as well but they dropped. If Roglic, Carapaz and Mas drop tomorrow, you will get the same GC field as Giro quality wise. Dan Martin red jersey, basically another Kelderman.

It has Roglič, these days you don't really get bigger than that. But anyway I think Vuelta tends to always have more big name leaders recently than the Giro, just normally in much shittier forms.

 

[gunara]

what do you mean? It has never backfired on Roglic to not take as much time as possible. Nope, can't think of a single race where he could've been more aggressive in hindsight.

Maybe it happened much too long ago for you to remember

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Maybe it happened much too long ago for you to remember

ah yes perhaps. My memory isn't what it used to be.

 

[Lequack]

The only ITT is on stage 13, this is the profile. It's very similar to the one in Tour, both in length and with a tough climb at the end, almost 2km @ 14%

This finishing climb was also used in Vuelta 2016, 3rd stage. Here are some pics from then:
http://www.steephill.tv/2016/vuelta-a-espana/photos/stage-03/

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I didn't watch the stage -- have to get some work done this fall -- but my initial thought was why would Roglic go for red so early? Let someone else take the jersey for a while etc. Right now he's just consigned Dumoulin to domestique duty. Maybe that's where TD is at this year but already we've got a situation similar to the TdF, where Roglic might be just taking 6 seconds here and 4 seconds there but not delivering a knockout blow.

Im not sure how Roglic was supposed to put significant time into the best there. Putting almost a minute into all but six opponents is better than can really have been expected. Its a hard climb, but it’s short.

Maybe he will continue with his quite conservative approach of trying for small late gaps on stages where more is possible. Maybe he won’t. If he does and if he doesn’t just run out of form and crack then there would still have to be someone capable of Pogacaring him for it to bite him in the rear. I suspect that he’s more worried about the running out of form option than about an out of nowhere amazing performance from one of his close rivals.

 

[johnymax]

The only ITT is on stage 13, this is the profile. It's very similar to the one in Tour, both in length and with a tough climb at the end, almost 2km @ 14%

Is Mas the new Pogačar?

Edit: This is kinda ironic. Pogačar was considered "just" another Enric Mas by some not that far ago.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't know how much Dumoulin lost because he didn't do work in his group and how much because he wasn't good enough. It's a minute. Normally he wouldn't win but Jumbo should IMO keep all their cards close until stage 6, where they IMO should really divide and conquer.

 

[Bolder]

This supposed strategy could also bite him in the end, all the same. Since taking seconds could also be all the buffer you need to win the whole thing.

Also true. Might be enough. And they're just 17 stages left.

 

[richwallone]

I didn't watch the stage -- have to get some work done this fall -- but my initial thought was why would Roglic go for red so early? Let someone else take the jersey for a while etc. Right now he's just consigned Dumoulin to domestique duty. Maybe that's where TD is at this year but already we've got a situation similar to the TdF, where Roglic might be just taking 6 seconds here and 4 seconds there but not delivering a knockout blow.

He might let it go a nonthreatening GC rider in a break in the next few days... Who knows

 

[richwallone]

I wonder too what Roglic does when he feels GOOD:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1318593039900749825

View: https://twitter.com/VelonCC/status/1318593039900749825

 

[Lequack]

Wait what happened to Pinot?

 

[roundabout]

Ezaro is under 7 minutes climbing time and it's much flatter before, so I would say that it's different than the Tour despite the similar easier part-climb at the end structure

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Not sure why Ineos took Froome, you would think they would know whether he was capable of being a mountain dom, weird.

Same reason Movistar take Valverde, sentimentality.

 

[Lequack]

Ezaro is under 7 minutes climbing time and it's much flatter before, so I would say that it's different than the Tour despite the similar easier part-climb at the end structure

Still worth changing bikes?

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I know he is a GT winner but what made Carapaz look any better than the other guys who finished +1 ?

Perceived strength + pedigree + team + route suitability, IMO, indicate Carapaz is a big favorite along with Roglic

I love the Mas love, but nothing he has done indicates to me that he will take on Roglic and Carapaz. For all the talk of him as the new Contador, he never attacks, just holds wheels. Roglic and Carapaz are proven attackers. Sure, Roglic hasn't attacked from far (lately), but both he and Carapaz have taken wins with big attacks in GTs. Mas, just floats along.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Still worth changing bikes?

It is steep. Really steep on a TT bike I think. Especially for those climbers who look so out of position on a TT bike on the flat, the grade might be enough to warrant a change