The Hitch said:
My point was more, and not just directed at you, do people who thought Mosquera could overturn a 39 second deficit (60% of the forum) now think that since its a whopping 50 seconds, he wont manage?
It is still doable, but I now pretty doubtful that I will get that right.
The big difference between 39 and 50 secs will be in Nibali's head. He will feel a little bit less jumpy when Mosquera goes, especially if Kreuziger is still around. So a bigger chance he will keep his own place means a smaller chance to blow. And he will need to blow for Mosquera to snatch it. I don't think he will cook early enough now, because it's one hell of a carrot to hang on for, and Kreuziger might turn those 50 secs a mighty cosy cushion.
The beauty of blowing is that it can mean anything. If Nibali avoids it he will get it for sure. If not, here's hoping.....
(I prefer to see Mosquera win this one, nothing personal).