Lopez or Mas probably need to find another 3 mins on Roglic to actually have a chance come that TT (and that's assuming he doesn't get any time on other stages). Unless Roglic blows (and imo he looks the strongest ATM) I'm not sure either can do that without one of them burying themselves for the other.
It's just really early for big sweeping statements like this. It depends on how form develops over 3 weeks. Especially on Gamoniteiru gaps should be in the minutes. I would consider Covadonga the bellwether for that, not a 2km hill top 2 weeks before.
Yeah the general decent Lopez ITT would probably be slightly under 2 minutes, which is still a lot. But MALs inconsistency is his bigger problem still. He doesn't turn his climbing into 2 minutes of advantage.He could, but he also might not. His level on TTs is wildly diverging and it's not a given he will flunk as badly as he did on La Planche des Belles Filles.