Vuelta al País Vasco 4–9 April 2016

[AlexNYC]

Re: Re:

Bet365 odds are up. Contador is the favourite which I agree with. If he can't win this race, or just place higher than Quintana, I don't see him having a real shot against Quintana and Dawg at the Tour. He really needs this one.

Contador 3.00
Quintana 4.50
Pinot 6.50
Henao 7.00
Rodriguez 9.00
Izaguirre 16.00
Aru 26

The betters must be blind if they think Pinot will be better than Henao in this type of terrain. Winning Critérium International is not the same as winning here.

Pinot is being vastly overrated in those odds, no question. Also, Izaguirre should be higher. I personally don't think Nairo should be so high up either, but he might actually fight for this if he has great form and stays healthy.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Likelihood of winning, IMO
Henao > Izagirre > Contador > Pinot > Quintana > others including Dan Martin, Aru, Costa

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Bet365 odds are up. Contador is the favourite which I agree with. If he can't win this race, or just place higher than Quintana, I don't see him having a real shot against Quintana and Dawg at the Tour. He really needs this one.

Contador 3.00
Quintana 4.50
Pinot 6.50
Henao 7.00
Rodriguez 9.00
Izaguirre 16.00
Aru 26

The betters must be blind if they think Pinot will be better than Henao in this type of terrain. Winning Critérium International is not the same as winning here.

Pinot is being vastly overrated in those odds, no question. Also, Izaguirre should be higher. I personally don't think Nairo should be so high up either, but he might actually fight for this if he has great form and stays healthy.

Quintana said he was ill after Catalunya, so maybe he will not be at his best.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Bet365 odds are up. Contador is the favourite which I agree with. If he can't win this race, or just place higher than Quintana, I don't see him having a real shot against Quintana and Dawg at the Tour. He really needs this one.

Contador 3.00
Quintana 4.50
Pinot 6.50
Henao 7.00
Rodriguez 9.00
Izaguirre 16.00
Aru 26

The betters must be blind if they think Pinot will be better than Henao in this type of terrain. Winning Critérium International is not the same as winning here.

Pinot was second IIRC at Malhao, Garratatxu shouldn't really be a problem for him, Arrate is gradual and he can descend now. I think Henao still is better here, but a top-3 isn't far fetched for Pinot. I can see him winning the ITT for sure

 

[AlexNYC]

Re: Re:

Quintana said he was ill after Catalunya, so maybe he will not be at his best.

I'm not surprised to hear this. He seems to have a serious problem with pollen allergies. Even during his Giro win, he spent half the race sick with them.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Bet365 odds are up. Contador is the favourite which I agree with. If he can't win this race, or just place higher than Quintana, I don't see him having a real shot against Quintana and Dawg at the Tour. He really needs this one.

Contador 3.00
Quintana 4.50
Pinot 6.50
Henao 7.00
Rodriguez 9.00
Izaguirre 16.00
Aru 26

The betters must be blind if they think Pinot will be better than Henao in this type of terrain. Winning Critérium International is not the same as winning here.

Pinot is being vastly overrated in those odds, no question. Also, Izaguirre should be higher. I personally don't think Nairo should be so high up either, but he might actually fight for this if he has great form and stays healthy.

Quintana said he was ill after Catalunya, so maybe he will not be at his best.

Where? There have been an increasing amount of colds lately, especially among GT-contenders. I don't know if its something they often say to downplay or if its just minor colds or whatever
Edit: Ah, pollen, yep he has that problem. That was why he did so relatively poor last year in Pais Vasco

 

[bajbar]

Re: Re:

Bet365 odds are up. Contador is the favourite which I agree with. If he can't win this race, or just place higher than Quintana, I don't see him having a real shot against Quintana and Dawg at the Tour. He really needs this one.

Contador 3.00
Quintana 4.50
Pinot 6.50
Henao 7.00
Rodriguez 9.00
Izaguirre 16.00
Aru 26

The betters must be blind if they think Pinot will be better than Henao in this type of terrain. Winning Critérium International is not the same as winning here.

Pinot was second IIRC at Malhao, Garratatxu shouldn't really be a problem for him, Arrate is gradual and he can descend now. I think Henao still is better here, but a top-3 isn't far fetched for Pinot. I can see him winning the ITT for sure

Contador is here as well... And Contador and Pais Vasco ITTs seem to go hand-in-hand...

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

Likelihood of winning, IMO
Henao > Izagirre > Contador > Pinot > Quintana > others including Dan Martin, Aru, Costa

Rating Contador lower than Izagirre is just pessimistic. You know that is illogical.

Contador is the main favorite but I know you're afraid that he gets his third 2nd place in a WT race this year.

 

[Brullnux]

Izagirre's favourite terrain is that of the Pais Vasco. He is as strong or stronger than Quintana on this terrain, as we saw last year.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Bet365 odds are up. Contador is the favourite which I agree with. If he can't win this race, or just place higher than Quintana, I don't see him having a real shot against Quintana and Dawg at the Tour. He really needs this one.

Contador 3.00
Quintana 4.50
Pinot 6.50
Henao 7.00
Rodriguez 9.00
Izaguirre 16.00
Aru 26

The betters must be blind if they think Pinot will be better than Henao in this type of terrain. Winning Critérium International is not the same as winning here.

Pinot was second IIRC at Malhao, Garratatxu shouldn't really be a problem for him, Arrate is gradual and he can descend now. I think Henao still is better here, but a top-3 isn't far fetched for Pinot. I can see him winning the ITT for sure

Garratatxu makes Malhao look like Cauberg. I doubt that Pinot can top 3 on a short 11% climb, he is a diesel.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Likelihood of winning, IMO
Henao > Izagirre > Contador > Pinot > Quintana > others including Dan Martin, Aru, Costa

Rating Contador lower than Izagirre is just pessimistic. You know that is illogical.

Contador is the main favorite but I know you're afraid that he gets his third 2nd place in a WT race this year.

Agreed. Contador is much better on those steep Mur-gradients than Izaguirre is, at this point 10-20 minutes effort on 8-10% is what suits Contador the most IMO

 

[WheelofGear]

If Pinot deserves a mention, so does Spilak. He can handle steep climbs a little better and should be able to beat Pinot in the TT.

 

[Brullnux]

Pinot should be good. At Tirreno we were not able to see him much due to *** organization, but he looked very good in the TT.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Likelihood of winning, IMO
Henao > Izagirre > Contador > Pinot > Quintana > others including Dan Martin, Aru, Costa

Rating Contador lower than Izagirre is just pessimistic. You know that is illogical.

Contador is the main favorite but I know you're afraid that he gets his third 2nd place in a WT race this year.

Agreed. Contador is much better on those steep Mur-gradients than Izaguirre is, at this point 10-20 minutes effort on 8-10% is what suits Contador the most IMO

Yep. As I see it, the race is between Contador and Henao.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Isn't Malhao 3 kilometers at 10% or something similar? Garratatxu is a little more steep and irregular, but its not like its completely different to that at all.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Edit: Ah, pollen, yep he has that problem. That was why he did so relatively poor last year in Pais Vasco

He said it in his pre race press conference, he said virus so don't think it's a pollen issue

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

Isn't Malhao 3 kilometers at 10% or something similar? Garratatxu is a little more steep and irregular, but its not like its completely different to that at all.

It's 8.9 % at 2.5k. When it's 11-12%, it comes down to featherweightness. I would not be suprised to see Quintana win this stage if he is in shape.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Contador is here as well... And Contador and Pais Vasco ITTs seem to go hand-in-hand...

Yes, if he isn't at least top 5 I will be very worried, I actually expect top 3. I don't know if he can win, his TTs so far haven't been very impressive and Pinot has TTed exceptionally well.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Rating Contador lower than Izagirre is just pessimistic. You know that is illogical.

Contador is the main favorite but I know you're afraid that he gets his third 2nd place in a WT race this year.

Henao is really strong right now, he is obviously the main favorite. I can't see many opportunities for Contador to take much time on Izagirre and Izagirre can take time in the
ITT.
Edit: and this

Izagirre's favourite terrain is that of the Pais Vasco. He is as strong or stronger than Quintana on this terrain, as we saw last year.

/edit
I don't see why my fears are relevant to the discussion, are you implying I'd rather see Contador 3rd behind Henao and Izagirre than 2nd again?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Isn't Malhao 3 kilometers at 10% or something similar? Garratatxu is a little more steep and irregular, but its not like its completely different to that at all.

It's 8.9 % at 2.5k. When it's 11-12%, it comes down to featherweightness. I would not be suprised to see Quintana win this stage if he is in shape.

I mixed it up with Mende. Whatever

Neither would I, but it isn't exactly his cup of tea, but who knows. He is definitely one of 5 who can win there

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Rating Contador lower than Izagirre is just pessimistic. You know that is illogical.

Contador is the main favorite but I know you're afraid that he gets his third 2nd place in a WT race this year.

Henao is really strong right now, he is obviously the main favorite. I can't see many opportunities for Contador to take much time on Izagirre and Izagirre can take time in the ITT.
I don't see why my worries are relevant, are you implying I'd rather see Contador 3rd behind Henao and Izagirre than 2nd again?

No. But you just don't rate a a strong domestique higher than 7 or 9 time grand tour winner who has won this race a lot of times. Of course Contador is the favorite.

 

[Valv.Piti]

If you don't expect too much its easier to cope with a potentially bad result. Never seen LF so moderate about Contador

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Rating Contador lower than Izagirre is just pessimistic. You know that is illogical.

Contador is the main favorite but I know you're afraid that he gets his third 2nd place in a WT race this year.

Henao is really strong right now, he is obviously the main favorite. I can't see many opportunities for Contador to take much time on Izagirre and Izagirre can take time in the
ITT.
Edit: and this

Izagirre's favourite terrain is that of the Pais Vasco. He is as strong or stronger than Quintana on this terrain, as we saw last year.

/edit
I don't see why my fears are relevant to the discussion, are you implying I'd rather see Contador 3rd behind Henao and Izagirre than 2nd again?

No, I was justifying why you might think that Izagirre has more chance than contador. Izagirre could win the whole thing.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

If you don't expect too much its easier to cope with a potentially bad result. Never seen LF so moderate about Contador

What about the 2012 Vuelta, or during all of 2013, or pretty much every time Contador underpeformed

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

No. But you just don't rate a a strong domestique higher than 7 or 9 time grand tour winner who has won this race a lot of times. Of course Contador is the favorite.

Nonsense, palmares isn't relevant at all, it all comes down to the route and current shape.