Who will be the next home winner of a Grand Tour?

[Hugo Koblet]

I wish people would stop lumping Bernal and Pogacar with Evenepoel

The hype for Evenepoel is over the top and embarrassing

We are talking about 2 Tour de France winners and as yet a youngster who rode away on some secondary or not at top from fields in lower races and is unproven as a GT contender not to mention winner .He hasnt been on a podium of a GT or finished a 3 week race in contention .Wining the Tour is more than legs

Give it a rest and respect the Tour champions who have earned their position

I wonder sometimes about people on here and bandwagon jumping
When the kid has proven himself in a a GT then ok but this is just bandwagon jumping hype at present

The kid has just turned 21 and is already the second best time trialer in the world, and he destroyed the peloton at will in every race last year. What makes you think that he can't win GT's?

 

[tobydawq]

Yeah, really a weird assessment. You have to be more conservative than Roger De Vlaeminck not to appreciate the magnitude of Evenepoel's talent.

..."rode away not from top fields in lower races"...

Alright. I guess it was just for fun Fuglsang let him go and pretended to reel him in while in actuality handing him more time on the Pologne stage, just days before winning his second monument.

I realise he hasn't competed in a GC but NOTHING suggests he wouldn't be a monster in those.

 

[SafeBet]

..."rode away not from top fields in lower races"...

Alright. I guess it was just for fun Fuglsang let him go and pretended to reel him in while in actuality handing him more time on the Pologne stage, just days before winning his second monument.

Fuglsang and Simon Yates and Wellens and Majka and Carapaz and...

 

[roundabout]

I don't think Baloise Belgium Tour will have GT status any time soon

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I wish people would stop lumping Bernal and Pogacar with Evenepoel

The hype for Evenepoel is over the top and embarrassing

We are talking about 2 Tour de France winners and as yet a youngster who rode away on some secondary or not at top from fields in lower races and is unproven as a GT contender not to mention winner .He hasnt been on a podium of a GT or finished a 3 week race in contention .Wining the Tour is more than legs

Give it a rest and respect the Tour champions who have earned their position

I wonder sometimes about people on here and bandwagon jumping
When the kid has proven himself in a a GT then ok but this is just bandwagon jumping hype at present

"embarrassing" indeed.

And especially funny considering you just backed an other unproven rider in GC's as future GT winner.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

"embarrassing" indeed.

And especially funny considering you just backed an other unproven rider in GC's as future GT winner.

Two even, unless one considers just barely scraping into the Giro Top 10 one time to indicate a proven ability to win the TDF.

 

[Gigs_98]

I wish people would stop lumping Bernal and Pogacar with Evenepoel

The hype for Evenepoel is over the top and embarrassing

We are talking about 2 Tour de France winners and as yet a youngster who rode away on some secondary or not at top from fields in lower races and is unproven as a GT contender not to mention winner .He hasnt been on a podium of a GT or finished a 3 week race in contention .Wining the Tour is more than legs

Give it a rest and respect the Tour champions who have earned their position

I wonder sometimes about people on here and bandwagon jumping
When the kid has proven himself in a a GT then ok but this is just bandwagon jumping hype at present

I dislike overhyping young gc prospects as much as anyone (who could forget me reminding everyone of just how overhyped Pogacar was right before last years tour...those were the times) but Remco is different. What he did in the junior categories and even once he turned pro is so unprecedented that it's hard to tell who to compare him to other than guys like Pogacar and Bernal. Seriously, if not them, who else? Mas cause he hasn't won a gt? Kämna because he hasn't ridden a gt for the gc yet? Surely putting Remco in the same category as these guys is even more stupid.
Honestly, I don't think comparing him with Pogacar and Bernal is wrong at all. At this point I'd be quite surprised if Bernal ends up having a better career than Evenepoel and his performances so far have simply been too good to treat him like just another upcoming gt hopeful.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I dislike overhyping young gc prospects as much as anyone (who could forget me reminding everyone of just how overhyped Pogacar was right before last years tour...those were the times) but Remco is different. What he did in the junior categories and even once he turned pro is so unprecedented that it's hard to tell who to compare him to other than guys like Pogacar and Bernal. Seriously, if not them, who else? Mas cause he hasn't won a gt? Kämna because he hasn't ridden a gt for the gc yet? Surely putting Remco in the same category as these guys is even more stupid.
Honestly, I don't think comparing him with Pogacar and Bernal is wrong at all. At this point I'd be quite surprised if Bernal ends up having a better career than Evenepoel and his performances so far have simply been too good to treat him like just another upcoming gt hopeful.

I completely understand that some people don't like certain riders to be hyped before they proved they can do what they are hyped for. But then again, it wouldn't be hype if they already proved it. But i get it rubs people the wrong way or that people will "believe it when they see it". No problem. What makes his post ridiculous is the way he talks about the things Evenepoel already achieved in his career.

 

[KZD]

Regarding Ganna, I don't think that he will win a Grand Tour. He can climb really well but its mostly on shallower on short climbs. I know that he didn't rode the Giro for the overall but he still finished more than 3 hours away from Tao. People will talk about Wiggins, but he had everything to his favour in that Tour, 100km of time trial, few mountains and lack of competitors plus I don't think that Ganna can drop his weight to 70kg but only to around 75kg since he is taller.
So while I think that Ganna is a superb rider, I see him much more as a Paris-Roubaix winner than a Giro one.

To answer the question, while I would like Pinot to win the Tour, I think Enric Mas at the Vuelta is the most likely candidate.

 

[Brullnux]

I can very much see the Giro tailoring a route to Ganna if in 5 years there are no Italian GC riders who can win on a normal route. Gazzetta is already talking about him as the next big thing, if he improves his climbing to, say, a bit above Dennis level then we will see a Giro route with shallow climbs, a lot of ITT, and only one or two actual mountain stages.

 

[OlavEH]

Ganna is 1.93m, and supposedly 82 kg. That sounds awfully much for potential GC contenders. How much weight does the guy need to lose to be competitive? Even in a version with gentler climbs that what is normal in the current versions of the Giro?

And btw; I really, really don't hope this will be a possible scenario. A tailor-made version where the mountain stages are mostly climbs like Montevergine, Madonna di Campiglio, Oropa and Breuil-Cervinia. Sounds awful! It would be much more preferable if a guy like Bagioli showed big promise as a GC rider in the next couple of years!

 

[tobydawq]

I can very much see the Giro tailoring a route to Ganna if in 5 years there are no Italian GC riders who can win on a normal route. Gazzetta is already talking about him as the next big thing, if he improves his climbing to, say, a bit above Dennis level then we will see a Giro route with shallow climbs, a lot of ITT, and only one or two actual mountain stages.

Above Dennis level? Is that the same Rohan Dennis who single-handled destroyed the whole Giro field up the Stelvio we're talking about?

 

[Brullnux]

Above Dennis level? Is that the same Rohan Dennis who single-handled destroyed the whole Giro field up the Stelvio we're talking about?

No I know I was kind of disregarding last season as an anomaly. I was more thinking if he gets to around top 15 grand tour level like Dennis did in 2018.

 

[Red Rick]

No I know I was kind of disregarding last season as an anomaly. I was more thinking if he gets to around top 15 grand tour level like Dennis did in 2018.

You don't win GTs by being the 15th best climber, that doesn't even guarantee a 10th place even with Gannas ITTing and at that point it's basically breakaways making bigger differences than ITTs.

Dumoulin was one of the 3 main climbers in 2017 for most of the Giro. Wiggins mostly was in 2012. At the very least he needs to be like top 8 climber with a ridiculously favoring route and a bonkers team.

 

[roundabout]

Isidro Nozal got pretty close to winning a GT with the following finishes in mountain stages and 1 MTT

17-24-13-7-15-24-31-42

But still
-he didn't win
-and that was the only occasion I can think of a rider climbing at that level contending for a GT in 25+ years of watching

 

[OlavEH]

You don't win GTs by being the 15th best climber, that doesn't even guarantee a 10th place even with Gannas ITTing and at that point it's basically breakaways making bigger differences than ITTs.

Dumoulin was one of the 3 main climbers in 2017 for most of the Giro. Wiggins mostly was in 2012. At the very least he needs to be like top 8 climber with a ridiculously favoring route and a bonkers team.

Not at his present level, but if the RCS were to tailor-make a route for Ganna, he doesn't necessarily need to be among the 3, 4, 5 best climbers to win a GT. A route with 100 km of flat/mostly flat ITT and exclusively mountain stages without massive climbs like Mortirolo, Finestre, Stelvio, Fauniera or Dolomite stage with Fedaia and Giau could potentially promote him to a realistic winning candidate.

I checked the time gaps in mountain stages like that. Typically Oropa 2014 and 17, Pratonevoso 18, Madonna di Campiglio 15, Piancvallao 17 and 20, Oritisei 17 and Cervinia 15 and 18. The time gaps from the best climber to roughly the 10th best climber were typically from about 40 seconds to 1.00 min (Oropa x2, Pratonevoso, Ortisei, Cervinia 18), a couple of times around 1.30 (Piancavallo x2) and two times above 2.00 (Cervinia and Mad. di Campiglio 15).

The competitors would probally be even more eager to attack Ganna earlier in the climbs than is common today if he was to become a GC contender, but if the route consisted mostly of stages like this, I would think there were few opportunites to gain 2-3 min or more. A Ganna who gain 6-7-8 minutes on the best climbers in the ITTs could therefore have a chance at winning the whole thing.

 

[Red Rick]

Not at his present level, but if the RCS were to tailor-make a route for Ganna, he doesn't necessarily need to be among the 3, 4, 5 best climbers to win a GT. A route with 100 km of flat/mostly flat ITT and exclusively mountain stages without massive climbs like Mortirolo, Finestre, Stelvio, Fauniera or Dolomite stage with Fedaia and Giau could potentially promote him to a realistic winning candidate.

I checked the time gaps in mountain stages like that. Typically Oropa 2014 and 17, Pratonevoso 18, Madonna di Campiglio 15, Piancvallao 17 and 20, Oritisei 17 and Cervinia 15 and 18. The time gaps from the best climber to roughly the 10th best climber were typically from about 40 seconds to 1.00 min (Oropa x2, Pratonevoso, Ortisei, Cervinia 18), a couple of times around 1.30 (Piancavallo x2) and two times above 2.00 (Cervinia and Mad. di Campiglio 15).

The competitors would probally be even more eager to attack Ganna earlier in the climbs than is common today if he was to become a GC contender, but if the route consisted mostly of stages like this, I would think there were few opportunites to gain 2-3 min or more. A Ganna who gain 6-7-8 minutes on the best climbers in the ITTs could therefore have a chance at winning the whole thing.

And that would be the day I don't watch the Giro for a year.

 

[OlavEH]

And that would be the day I don't watch the Giro for a year.

Haha, you mean if they customize the route for Ganna to win?

You woundn't watch a version with Montevergine and San Giancomo MTFs in the Apennines before moving on to Oropa, Cervinia and Madonna di Campiglio in the Alps? And as the high point of the race, a Dolomite stage with Rolle followed by Sella Ronda and a downhill finish to Canazei.....

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Gressoney-Staffal hasn't been seen for a while. Maybe a San Martino di Castrozza MTF could be on the cards too. Or an early 90s style Pinerolo-Sestriere ITT.

 

[Eeslliw]

You guys are also forgetting that anything that Ganna will gain in climbing abilities , he will lose in TT. You can't get a better climber (lose weight etc.) and stay that dominant in TT.

 

[tobydawq]

You guys are also forgetting that anything that Ganna will gain in climbing abilities , he will lose in TT. You can't get a better climber (lose weight etc.) and stay that dominant in TT.

Tell that to Wiggins, Dumoulin and Thomas.

 

[OlavEH]

Tell that to Wiggins, Dumoulin and Thomas.

Do you know how much these guys lost from the time being more TT riders to they become GC contenders. I think I read something about a 7 kg loss for Wiggo, but the two others?

 

[Koronin]

You guys are also forgetting that anything that Ganna will gain in climbing abilities , he will lose in TT. You can't get a better climber (lose weight etc.) and stay that dominant in TT.

Someone must have forgotten to tell that to Indurain.

 

[Anderis]

You guys are also forgetting that anything that Ganna will gain in climbing abilities , he will lose in TT. You can't get a better climber (lose weight etc.) and stay that dominant in TT.

Wiggins won every single ITT he rode in 2012 (excluding prologues) and he did it against Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara- two of the greatest ITT specialists of all time.

I do think Wiggins' 2012 is underrated.

 

[Nirvana]

Someone must have forgotten to tell that to Indurain.

Indurain was one of the better climbers around, if not the best, while being 80 kilos, he didn't need to loose weight.
Anyway i agree that the equation "improving climbing = worsening TT ability" is ***.