Who will be the next home winner of a Grand Tour?

[Red Rick]

I don't even think Ganna's problem would be the MTFs, unless you visit the Zoncolan or the Mortirolo.
But I don't think he will ever be able to cope with multi-mountain stages or even the hard hilly stages. Take a stage like Torino last year, raced as it was... Pippo loses 15/20 minutes.

I think they would be. I think Ganna's unipuerto MTF results go down pretty quickly once you go from 4-5% climbs to even 7% climbs.

 

[Bolder]

Mas or Ayuso. The former probably in 2023-24 or never, the latter has more time.

Spain currently has the deepest domestic GC bench of the big 3 GTs, with Ayuso, CRod and Mas. Would be crazy if none of them won a Vuelta, with both Ayuso and Rodriguez being very young. Of course I was certain that Landa would win a Vuelta, too...

I see no hope for Italy or France, to be honest,.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I see no hope for Italy or France, to be honest,.

Also keep in mind the level at the Tour over the last years. It's been ridiculously high and very few can win it.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

After yesterday I'm convinced its gonna be David GUCCI Gaudu.

 

[OlavEH]

Ganna wins the Giro in 2024 or 2025 with a terrible 2012 tdf route,

Would be absolutely dreadful. A Giro with 120 km of ITT and MTFs at Montevergine, Pratonevoso, Madonna di Campiglio and a Dolomite stage finish around Sella Ronda.

 

[tobydawq]

Would be absolutely dreadful. A Giro with 120 km of ITT and MTFs at Montevergine, Pratonevoso, Madonna di Campiglio and a Dolomite stage finish around Sella Ronda.

It's not going to happen.

 

[Red Rick]

It's not going to happen.

Imagine if that route happens and Ganna still drops 20 minutes in the mountains

 

[SafeBet]

Imagine if that route happens and Ganna still drops 20 minutes in the mountains

Imagine if that route happens but Ganna goes to the Tour and Stefan Kung wins the Giro.

 

[Anderis]

Imagine if that route happens and Ganna still drops 20 minutes in the mountains

In the mountains? He'll drop 20 minutes on one stage!

 

[Netserk]

Would be absolutely dreadful. A Giro with 120 km of ITT and MTFs at Montevergine, Pratonevoso, Madonna di Campiglio and a Dolomite stage finish around Sella Ronda.

The 2015 Giro really showed how dreadful it would be with so weak MTFs.

 

[tobydawq]

The 2015 Giro really showed how dreadful it would be with so weak MTFs.

The fact that it had such a narrow field probably also had something to do with the development of the race.

 

[OlavEH]

It's not going to happen.

Problably not. But if Ganna shows som real promise in a GT, I wouldn't rule out RCS trying to customize a route for Ganna.

 

[OlavEH]

The 2015 Giro really showed how dreadful it would be with so weak MTFs.

The 2015 route which also had Mortirolo, Finestre and big Aosta stage?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The 2015 route which also had Mortirolo, Finestre and big Aosta stage?

Filippo the Tank Engine would easily TT on those false flats.

 

[tobydawq]

Problably not. But if Ganna shows som real promise in a GT, I wouldn't rule out RCS trying to customize a route for Ganna.

Why not? People will hate it, and viewing numbers would diminish.

 

[OlavEH]

Why not? People will hate it, and viewing numbers would diminish.

Italian cycling is so weak these days, that a Italian victory in the GIro could easily outweigh all other considerations.

But first Ganna actually have to show promise. And I think that is less likely than RCS customizing a route if the actually shows promise in a GT.

 

[Red Rick]

Imagine if that route happens but Ganna goes to the Tour and Stefan Kung wins the Giro.

It's Stef Kung he'd find a way to lose it by 2 seconds.

 

[Netserk]

The fact that it had such a narrow field probably also had something to do with the development of the race.

Maybe even the ITT actually did something good as well?

 

[Netserk]

The 2015 route which also had Mortirolo, Finestre and big Aosta stage?

You lamented weak MTFs, I gave you them. Of the above, this was the only MTF:

 

[Red Rick]

What made the 2015 Giro work was the dynamic with favorite with a terrible team who also wasn't dominant in the mountains, and there was one team to shred everything because they needed to attack. Basically imagine Vingegaard doesn't drop Pogacar until Hautacam.

In terms of mountains though, I really agree with the idea that the near 0 emphasis on MTF in the 2015 Giro was great. Even if you were easily the strongest climber, you had to make crazy attacks to make up for the TT losses. The 2016 Giro also didn't emphasize MTFs, and it had great mountain stages as well.

 

[Bolder]

Also keep in mind the level at the Tour over the last years. It's been ridiculously high and very few can win it.

Indeed, and none of them are French.

I slightly amend my flat assertion that Italy has no hope. If Hart can win the Giro then so can Ciccone.

I wonder why Italy hasn't produced a decent GC contender in a while. It's not for lack of riders or teams or inspiration. Nibali would have seemed to be a role model.

 

[Red Rick]

Indeed, and none of them are French.

I slightly amend my flat assertion that Italy has no hope. If Hart can win the Giro then so can Ciccone.

I wonder why Italy hasn't produced a decent GC contender in a while. It's not for lack of riders or teams or inspiration. Nibali would have seemed to be a role model.

I think it's like countries producing Grand Slam winners in tennis. You can produce a baseline with a depth of very good riders, but for GT winners you are gonna need those very big outliers all the same.

 

[Peyroteo94]

The 2015 Giro was great because of Contador. Period. If Contador wasn't there, this GT would be a lot worse. Contador means fireworks and spectacularity. When he was in the startlist, we knew we were going to have a fantastic show. We can say the same about Pogacar in these days.

 

[tobydawq]

Enric Mas still looks like the most likely candidate.

 

[GenericBoonenFan]

Enric Mas still looks like the most likely candidate.

Landa aswell, and he's actually a third-week-riser