Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[theyoungest]

Yeah true. I can only think of Menchov (at least he used to have that ability) and Kruijswijk (who seems to improve infinitely in a 3rd week?)

Andy Schleck, to some extent. And Thomas De Gendt

 

[LaFlorecita]

Oh I would love to see Hesjedal win;

A) Either Contador fanboys & girls go mad, that he was lucky that Andy & Bert werent there.
B) How unlucky Contador was last year then and how he was sabotaged so he coudlnt do the double.
C) Other people not accepting his win.

---

Time to root for Hesjedal.

I, for one, find it very disrespectful that he just says he can do the double, while Alberto clearly couldn't. Only the greatest in cycling could do the double, so he thinks he is among them? Damn, his head has grown very big in such a short amount of time.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Lol Hesjedal had an advantage from the TTT and still had trouble beating Rodriguez and De Gendt. Other contenders he beat? Two old Italians

Hardly comparable to an Evans, Nibali, VDB, Gesink, Wiggins

Ya, I will laugh so hard when he finishes 30 minutes down on GC.

 

[theyoungest]

Yes, I'm sure he meant this as a personal insult to Alberto Contador...

Get a grip, Florecita.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Yes, I'm sure he meant this as a personal insult to Alberto Contador...

Get a grip, Florecita.

Learn to read, that isn't even what I posted

 

[theyoungest]

It seems to be your only reason for wanting him to fail in this Tour... "how dare he think he can do what Contador couldn't do! For shame."

 

[LaFlorecita]

It seems to be your only reason for wanting him to fail in this Tour... "how dare he think he can do what Contador couldn't do! For shame."

No. My point is that Alberto can't do the double. Only the best can do it. So apparently Hesjedal thinks he is one of the best. Which is what bothers me.

 

[Panda Claws]

Tour de France, Stage 17 : Pau - Col du Tourmalet (174 km)
1. SCHLECK Andy SAX 5h03'29" 80
2. RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquin KAT 01'18" 50
3. HESJEDAL Ryder GRM 01'27" 35
4. SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel EUS 01'32" 25
5. MENCHOV Denis RAB 01'40" 15
6. GESINK Robert RAB 01'40" 10
7. HORNER Chris RSH 01'45" 5
8. VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen OLO 01'48" 3
9. KREUZIGER Roman LIQ 02'14" 2
10. CUNEGO Damiano LAM 03'00" 1
58. EVANS Cadel BMC 12'00" 0
87. WIGGINS Bradley SKY 23'19"

Even if Hesjedal is on the same level as Nibali, VDB and Gesink then you'll still have to agree that he falls short of Evans. Also there are reasons Evans sucked then but you know those yourself.

But with a giro in his legs that statement of winning the TDF becomes completely ridiculous. I invite Ryder to prove me wrong of course.

 

[cineteq]

No. My point is that Alberto can't do the double. Only the best can do it. So apparently Hesjedal thinks he is one of the best. Which is what bothers me.

And if he did what would you do? Will you switch to be his fangirl?

 

[LaFlorecita]

And if he did what would you do? Will you switch to be his fangirl?

Why would I.

 

[Havetts]

He would be obviously better than Contador cause he could pull off the double, doh..

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Why? De Gendt lost major time on Hesjedal in every mountain stage. Except the one where he got a 5 minute headstart.

Major time? Really? Because i thought he only took back about 3 minutes on Stelvio and ended at about a minute and a half from Hesjedal... including the time he lost in the TTT and due to his flat in the first mountain stage. Depends on your definition of "major" i guess. Of course, totally neglecting the fact that he had not prepared for a GC in the Giro as well, obviously. And it's not because you are given a headstart, that is an easy task to go on the offensive and solo your way to the finish (while preserving most of your headstart).

So i don't see any reason to downplay his performance.

It seems to be your only reason for wanting him to fail in this Tour... "how dare he think he can do what Contador couldn't do! For shame."

Who wants him to fail? People think it's funny that he actually think he can win the TDF, let alone do the double. If anyone should get a grip, it should be Hesjedal.

 

[LaFlorecita]

He would be obviously better than Contador cause he could pull off the double, doh..

And that is OF COURSE the main reason I like Alberto, because he is the best

 

[TheEnoculator]

OK, I'm Canadian and I love that Ryder made Canada finally a GT winner, but he keeps talking about winning the Tour and how his recovery is all good, etc., this is starting to bother me. Is he comparing himself to the likes of Coppi, Merckx, Hinault, Roche, Indurain and Pantani, who all did the Giro-Tour double? If he is, then he's in WAY over his head and he's completely full of himself. Now I can't wait until he falls flat on his face at the Tour.

I hate cocky riders.

 

[theyoungest]

Major time? Really? Because i thought he only took back about 3 minutes on Stelvio and ended at about a minute and a half from Hesjedal... including the time he lost in the TTT and due to his flat in the first mountain stage. Depends on your definition of "major" i guess. Of course, totally neglecting the fact that he had not prepared for a GC in the Giro as well, obviously. And it's not because you are given a headstart, that is an easy task to go on the offensive and solo your way to the finish (while preserving most of your headstart).

So i don't see any reason to downplay his performance.

Major time, to me, is anything above 30 seconds. In modern GT racing that's a lot. He did prepare for a GC in the Giro, after all, that's what he had been talking about all spring: see what I can do.

He was very impressive in those final days of the Giro, but to say "wow, if Hesjedal wins the Tour then De Gendt is obviously really strong" kind of ignores the race situation in the Giro. Without his breakaway to the Stelvio he would have been 8th or something on GC.

On the basis of the Giro, it would be more fair to say that if Hesjedal wins the Tour, then maybe Rodriguez could do so as well.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Major time, to me, is anything above 30 seconds. In modern GT racing that's a lot. He did prepare for a GC in the Giro, after all, that's what he had been talking about all spring: see what I can do.

He was very impressive in those final days of the Giro, but to say "wow, if Hesjedal wins the Tour then De Gendt is obviously really strong" kind of ignores the race situation in the Giro. Without his breakaway to the Stelvio he would have been 8th or something on GC.

He had NOT prepared for a GC in the Giro. He hadn't been working on his weight and he hadn't done any specific training in the mountains. He was going to test the waters in the Giro and try to go for a GC in the Vuelta. Check your facts.

EDIT: yes, he would have been 8th or 7th. He would probably have done a better ITT, so we'll never know. And riding a top 10 without specific preparation is not impressive? For a guy who's forte is ITT with only one ITT of less than 30km.

 

[theyoungest]

He had NOT prepared for a GC in the Giro. He hadn't been working on his weight and he hadn't done any specific training in the mountains. He was going to test the waters in the Giro and try to go for a GC in the Vuelta. Check your facts.

EDIT: yes, he would have been 8th or 7th. He would probably have done a better ITT, so we'll never know. And riding a top 10 without specific preparation is not impressive? For a guy who's forte is ITT with only one ITT of less than 30km.

De Gendt beschouwt de Giro een beetje als een leerschool. "Dit wordt pas mijn tweede grote ronde. De Giro is ideaal om te leren hoe ver ik kan geraken en of ik me op het klassieke werk moet toeleggen of op het rondewerk."

"Ik wil eens meegaan in een ontsnapping ofwel demarreren in de laatste 20/30 kilometer. Qua klassement mik ik op een plek in de buurt van de top 20. Als dat lukt, mag ik mijn twee "pollekes" kussen."

Obviously he had the GC in his mind. It was a testcase, but he was riding for GC nonetheless.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Obviously he had the GC in his mind. It was a testcase, but he was riding for GC nonetheless.

ugh...

again: he did not have any GC preparation. He was not competing in the Giro to get the best possible GC. (edit, obviously, until he noticed he was doing better than expected and there was much more than a top 20 in store even with hist current form). The fact that he made a top 20 an ambition beforehand, does not change the fact that the GC was not his primary goal.

Or maybe you know a lot of GC riders that talk about going in breaks and attacking from 30 km out? lol

 

[theyoungest]

ugh...

again: he did not have any GC preparation. He was not competing in the Giro to get the best possible GC. (edit, obviously, until he noticed he was doing better than expected and there was much more than a top 20 in store even with hist current form). The fact that he made a top 20 an ambition beforehand, does not change the fact that the GC was not his primary goal.

Even with his current form? He was in top form for the Giro. If he wasn't, then what had he been working towards all spring?

It can work both ways, of course. He had no pressure at all, in the Vuelta people will hope for a repeat, which will be almost impossible, more specific preparation or not.

edit: attack from 30 k out... and did he actually do that, before the Stelvio stage (when he didn't even mean to attack)?

 

[greenedge]

I am loving how Evans has closed the gap.

After De Gendts' performance at the Giro no one is disputing that he could therefore go well at the TDF- he has a strong ITT and he is a strong climber. He is younger than both JROD and Hesjedal and had never placed in the top in a GT. Also Andy Shleck was allowed quite a bit of time ( Galibier ) before others chased, so the fact De Gendt got away on a steep previous climb does not take away from his accomplishment.

My predictions for each stage at the TDF- with Evans as the winner.
Stage Prologue- Fabian Cancellara
Stage 1- Phillipe Gilbert/ Gerrans: Sagan will also challenge.
Stage 2- Alessandro Petacchi/ Kittel
Stage 3- Rui Costa/ Jeremy Roy
Stage 4- Mark Cavendish
Stage 5- Peter Sagan
Stage 6- Mark Cavendish
Stage 7- Pierre Rolland: he seems like he will be the best climber- if not here somewhere else.
Stage 8- Samuel Sanchez/ Vincenzo Nibali: who either descends better.
Stage 9- Tony Martin/ Frederik Kessiakoff/ Cancellara
Stage 10- Cadel Evans
Stage 11- Frank Shleck
Stage 12- Sylvain Chavanel
Stage 13- Matt Goss
Stage 14- Thomas Voeckler
Stage 15- Peter Sagan/ Goss/ Breakaway
Stage 16- Vino: after having tried on numerous other stages.
Stage 17- Valverde/ Gesink: Valverde from a sprint or Gesink if he attacks.
Stage 18- EBH: either from a break or sprint.
Stage 19- Martin: to be challenged by Cancellara/ GC riders.
Stage 20- Greipel

 

[Nick C.]

since no one seems to have bothered to read Hesjedal's quote in full but just assumes he is predicting a double here it is:

"I think I can win [the Tour de France]. I don't know if it will be this year but definitely after what I was able to do in the Giro, that was a big indicator for myself and now it's about how I can apply that further down the road," he told Cyclingnews.

"I got in a good recovery after the Giro, had some training and got the hours in around Girona. It's all good."

The true effects of his Giro win won't be evident until the Tour is underway but Hesjedal will be aware that his competition will be greater with both Bradley Wiggins and Cadel Evans tipped as the favourites. The Tour itself is an entirely different challenge to the Giro, too, and is littered with recent episodes of Giro champions who have failed to repeat their Italian exploits: Ivan Basso, Paolo Savoldelli, Denis Menchov and Gilberto Simoni, who declared he could drop Lance Armstrong but was comprehensively beaten in 2004.

"There are a lot of riders I've not seen for a while and a lot of riders basing their season on the Tour so we'll have to wait and see how it shakes out. In the Giro I just focused on what I had to do and did that as well as I could. If that moves me into contention for the win then I'll address that when it happens," he said.

"We saw what happened to the favourites on paper at the Giro. The analysts and the people following from the outside pick and develop their favourites but more and more and more we've seen riders winning who haven't been the top favourites. It makes for good racing and now you have to analyse every rival."

 

[Bala Verde]

ugh...

again: he did not have any GC preparation. He was not competing in the Giro to get the best possible GC. (edit, obviously, until he noticed he was doing better than expected and there was much more than a top 20 in store even with hist current form). The fact that he made a top 20 an ambition beforehand, does not change the fact that the GC was not his primary goal.

Or maybe you know a lot of GC riders that talk about going in breaks and attacking from 30 km out? lol

Not disagreeing with you but didn't he train on the Stelvio pre-giro and rode it 'a hundred' times, to work on his climbing skills?

 

[DenisMenchov]

This guy wants to win le Tour?


Stage 19 : Bordeaux - Pauillac I.T.T. (52 km)

11. MENCHOV Denis RAB 03'51"

43. SCHLECK Andy SAX 06'14"

47. SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CTT 06'30"

51. HESJEDAL Ryder GRM 06'40"

 

[TheEnoculator]

"I think I can win [the Tour de France]. I don't know if it will be this year but definitely after what I was able to do in the Giro, that was a big indicator for myself and now it's about how I can apply that further down the road,"

He's already leaving the option open that he could win this year's Tour. Many of the other contenders have stated that it's very long shot to win or even make the podium at this Tour because of the Wiggins/Evans dominance. Gesink and Valverde are examples of downplaying their chances.

Hesjedal should have come right out and said, "no, I don't think I can win this year's Tour, a Giro-Tour double is too tough. But I think I can be a Tour contender in the near future."

Vaughters needs to share part of the blame. Why would he make Hesjedal the leader about a tough Giro? He got Vande Verde, Danielson, Martin.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Are you kidding me?

Rocca di Cambio - easy mountain finish
1. TIRALONGO Paolo AST 5h51'03" 70
2. SCARPONI Michele LAM 40
3. SCHLECK Fränk RNT 03" 25

5. HESJEDAL Ryder GRM 05"
major group at 11s
De Gendt +22s

Lago Laceno
1. POZZOVIVO Domenico COG 6h06'05" 70
2. INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat MOV 23"
3. Major group of 25 (!) riders with De Gendt at 27s.

Cervinia
4. HESJEDAL Ryder GRM 20"
5. Group of 9 riders with de Gendt +46s

Pian dei Resinelli
4. HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis SKY 25" 15
5. SCARPONI Michele LAM 25" 10
6. BASSO Ivan LIQ 25"
12. HESJEDAL Ryder GRM 39"
17. DE GENDT Thomas VCD 01'11

First harder finish and De Gendt immediately loses 46 seconds on the best climbers and 31 on Hesjedal. He was not even with the best 10 climbers in that stage.

Cortina d'Ampezzo
1. RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquin KAT 5h24'42" 70
2. BASSO Ivan LIQ 40
3. HESJEDAL Ryder GRM 25
4. URAN URAN Rigoberto SKY 15
5. SCARPONI Michele LAM 10
6. POZZOVIVO Domenico COG 02"
9. DE GENDT Thomas VCD 01'22"

1'22 is pretty major timeloss for a GC contender! Also uphill he wasn't with the first 10 over the top. The stage ended in a downhill.

Alpe di Pampeago

1. KREUZIGER Roman AST 4h18'03" 70
2. HESJEDAL Ryder GRM 19" 40
3. RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquin KAT 32" 25
11. DE GENDT Thomas VCD 01'34" 0

Third hard finish and De Gendt again drops over a minute. Again not with the best 10 climbers. Pretty significant

And then what happened on the Stelvio is known to everyone.
So all in all, he dropped time on almost every mountain stages except the ones that were soft pedaled and had groups of 25 riders.
He finished 3rd thanks to a gutsy move and, like he said himself, all puzzle pieces falling together in the Stelvio stage. But not because he was one of the strongest 3 riders in this race.