Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[theyoungest]

Wiggins continues to get even tighter with bookmakers (as opposed to polls of Australian teenagers).

You mean polls of those who've watched the Tour last year. And who have never seen Wiggins do anything remotely similar.

You know how hype works. Or maybe you don't, when it concerns an Englishman.

 

[RedZone]

Wiggins continues to get even tighter with bookmakers (as opposed to polls of Australian teenagers).

I presume this is due to everyone seeing how awesome his hair is at the presentation.

the drag those sideburns will cost him minutes in the TT's

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

You mean polls of those who've watched the Tour last year. And who have never seen Wiggins do anything remotely similar.

You know how hype works. Or maybe you don't, when it concerns an Englishman.

I read enough total nonsense around here to avoid preening myself that I am part of a learned elite on this board, surrounded by other experts.

There is of course an argument that this forum is a better judge, but I'm inclined to follow the money when the market is deep enough that it isn't being moved by mugs betting 5ers.

If you'd care to read the thread, you would note that I think Wiggins (and Evans) are too short. But that does not imply I consider this voodoo poll to be any better.

 

[happytramp]

What this poll has proved though is that there are an equal number or Wiggans and Evans fans (or Wiggans haters) on this website.

 

[LaFlorecita]

What this poll has proved though is that there are an equal number or Wiggans and Evans fans (or Wiggans haters) on this website.

I am a Wiggo hater but I voted for Wiggo

 

[Panda Claws]

Perfect poll results right now

 

[taiwan]

TBH teh people who are only voting now are more likely to be your casual July fan than those who voted earlier.

Here's the first poll for easy comparison.

So Evans (with Menchov) has pulled away from the the same lesser favourites.

 

[will10]

I wonder what Sky will do if Froome turns up in vroom mode in the first ITT

 

[dlwssonic]

Wiggins continues to get even tighter with bookmakers (as opposed to polls of Australian teenagers).

I presume this is due to everyone seeing how awesome his hair is at the presentation.

lol you keep talking about the bookmakers as though they are absolute experts and know everything about the sport.
Cyclingnews has also interviewed a lot of retired famous riders and most of them can't decide between evans and wiggins or chose evans as the slight favourite.

 

[theyoungest]

lol you keep talking about the bookmakers as though they are absolute experts and know everything about the sport.
Cyclingnews has also interviewed a lot of retired famous riders and most of them can't decide between evans and wiggins or chose evans as the slight favourite.

Yeah, I'd be more inclined to give credence to a poll of cycling enthusiasts than to a bookmaker, who by definition reflects popular opinion.

A bookmaker isn't going to give you an expert opinion, of course he isn't. He wants to make money.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

lol you keep talking about the bookmakers as though they are absolute experts and know everything about the sport.
Cyclingnews has also interviewed a lot of retired famous riders and most of them can't decide between evans and wiggins or chose evans as the slight favourite.

You keep talking about bookmakers as if you want to make it clear you don't understand what they do.

Firstly, betfair is an exchange, so the odds are generated by the accumulated opinions of all people offering bets.

Secondly, even ordinary bookmakers are bookmakers, not gamblers. They set odds to give themselves a profit on all outcomes, so the odds reflect the accumulated opinions of all people placing bets.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

TBH teh people who are only voting now are more likely to be your casual July fan than those who voted earlier.

Here's the first poll for easy comparison.

So Evans (with Menchov) has pulled away from the the same lesser favourites.

well it can be argued that the earlier poll was deluded by a misleading warm up race, where one riders stock went up due to a victorious training ride.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Yeah, I'd be more inclined to give credence to a poll of cycling enthusiasts than to a bookmaker, who by definition reflects popular opinion.

A bookmaker isn't going to give you an expert opinion, of course he isn't. He wants to make money.

This is a self selecting voodoo poll where anyone can vote and all votes count equal.

Betfair is all of those things, except people only get to vote if they actually believe in their opinion enough to risk money.

I'll take that extra criteria to improve the opinion sample, myself.

 

[theyoungest]

well it can be argued that the earlier poll was deluded by a misleading warm up race, where one riders stock went up due to a victorious training ride.

Speaking of which, I haven't seen the name Pieter Weening pop up in any favourites lists. But going by the Dauphiné he'll be among the 5 best climbers in the Tour. Come on people, get with the program.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

You keep talking about bookmakers as if you want to make it clear you don't understand what they do.

Firstly, betfair is an exchange, so the odds are generated by the accumulated opinions of all people offering bets.

Secondly, even ordinary bookmakers are bookmakers, not gamblers. They set odds to give themselves a profit on all outcomes, so the odds reflect the accumulated opinions of all people placing bets.

bookmakers, especially in cycling are worthless. Rarely right.

I take the poll with a grain of salt tho, I never really pay attention to any polls on the forum.

 

[dlwssonic]

You keep talking about bookmakers as if you want to make it clear you don't understand what they do.

Firstly, betfair is an exchange, so the odds are generated by the accumulated opinions of all people offering bets.

Secondly, even ordinary bookmakers are bookmakers, not gamblers. They set odds to give themselves a profit on all outcomes, so the odds reflect the accumulated opinions of all people placing bets.

Timmy said it well. Plus betfair is british! You don't think they are biased at all???? A high percentage of the people offering the bets would be british too.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Speaking of which, I haven't seen the name Pieter Weening pop up in any favourites list. But going by the Dauphiné he'll be among the 5 best climbers in the Tour. Come on people, get with the program.

yup. also cant wait to see rogers outpace and eliminate all the climbers in france.

--

unrelated I was reading the ozzie tdf magazine today, apparently bmc have the strongest team in all regards.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

bookmakers, especially in cycling are worthless. Rarely right.

I take the poll with a grain of salt tho, I never really pay attention to any polls on the forum.

Good Bookmakers do not have opinions, so i'm not sure it makes much sense to talk about them being rarely right. When the favourite loses they margins tend to go up.

If you're not a gambler, they're just a free polling system who filter out people lacking conviction in their opinions, as opposed to this poll which is a voodoo free for all.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Good Bookmakers do not have opinions, so i'm not sure it makes much sense to talk about them being rarely right. When the favourite loses they margins tend to go up.

If you're not a gambler, they're just a free polling system who filter out people lacking conviction in their opinions, as opposed to this poll which is a voodoo free for all.

good bookmakers dont exist in cycling. sorry.

 

[theyoungest]

yup. also cant wait to see rogers outpace and eliminate all the climbers in france.

--

unrelated I was reading the ozzie tdf magazine today, apparently bmc have the strongest team in all regards.

Not Greenedge?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Timmy said it well. Plus betfair is british! You don't think they are biased at all????

'They' have absolutely no role in setting the price.

I just went on sportingbet.com.au and Wiggins is a shorter price than Evans. Plus they are Australian! You don't think they're biased at all????

 

[richtea]

good bookmakers dont exist in cycling. sorry.

If you genuinely believed that, you would try to exploit this information to your maximum advantage. You've made your fortune presumably?

 

[theyoungest]

'They' have absolutely no role in setting the price.

I just went on sportingbet.com.au and Wiggins is a shorter price than Evans. Plus they are Australian! You don't think they're biased at all????

Of course a British betting office is biased, because the British people are. You'll find shorter odds on Gesink in Holland than in any other country, that's just the way it works.

 

[stefank]

God, Waterloo Sunrise, your jingoism no bounds, and makes me ashamed of my 50 percent British ancestry, the vast majority of which is English. It's a good thing my name is thoroughly Polish, and so most people think I have no connection with all things Anglophile....

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Not Greenedge?

well, interestingly while some teams were rewarded no chance in GC, greenedge still had slim hope with two stars. In fact they have equal chance as lampre, ag2r, cofidos and lotto (YEP lotto, weening>vdb??), just one star behind euskatel, astana and katusha, and more chance then teams like fdj.

The whole magazine is just terrible. I assume ACF wrote it.