I'm inclined to go with Cadel more than Wiggins, personally I think Wiggins will crack under the weight of expectation and constant scrutiny from the British media. I know he's handled it well in the one week races but the TDF for 3 weeks is a different matter all together. I'm expecting a spectacular melt down at some point towards the end of week 2 or early in week 3 and once again for Froome to out perform him.
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Good summary, but i think this stage was the one where he punctured just before the end and lost 30 seconds due to that?
Without the Stelvio 'attack' he would probably have been good enough to finish with a time similar to Nieve and Gadret in the overall - about 10th strongest in the race as a whole.
- Sep 9, 2009
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Boardslide said:
He's a cyclist, not David Beckham. The only scrutiny he'll be getting will be repeat runs of the 500 powder puff positive feature pieces run on him so far this year.
TheEnoculator said:
Well yeah that would have been ideal. But if you read the page(s) of commentary it sounded like he was predicting a double "if contador can't do it ... who does he think he is" It's not like he is going all Simoni @ 2003 and saying he is going to thrash people in the mountains.
- Jun 7, 2011
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http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/9056/Tour-Match-Bets.html
What do we think of these odds then?
I like Froome to beat Danielson.
I like Kessiakoff to beat Plaza too.
Evans to be top Aussie is 2/5. Surely that is a shoo in???
What do we think of these odds then?
I like Froome to beat Danielson.
I like Kessiakoff to beat Plaza too.
Evans to be top Aussie is 2/5. Surely that is a shoo in???
TheEnoculator said:
The fact Garmin has Vande Verde, Danielson & Martin massively increases the potential for Hesjedal to pull off a great result (admittedly from nil chance of victory to a very small chance of victory). If he was on a weak team with nobody else that was a GC contendor or dangerous assistance in the mountains, then I'd agree Hesjedal wouldn't have a hope in hell.
He just won a GT and will be on top of the world, why should he adopt false modesty? There are enough bland sportsmen who'll intentionally downplay their prospects because "it's the right thing to do".
- Dec 30, 2011
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TheEnoculator said:
Thats part of the genius of it.
Who is the rider who has the capabilities of getting the highest GC result for Garmin? Hesjedal.
Therefore Hesjedal will be leader as if he can somehow reproduce his Giro form then he will have a very good shot at the podium.
And if not then he will have the three you listed above who will all be able themselves to get high GC placings. Or have you forgotten what has happened since 2008 to Garmin and unfancied riders going into the Tour?
Going in as team leader or as a free role rider as those 3 currently have will not make much difference in the early stages and those 3 will be unlikely to lose any time on the flat stages, similarly it will be a containment strategy on Stage 7 and they will be starting to see whether Hesjedal can handle the Tour. If not then the person who is looking the best will take over the reigns with a barely noticeable transition as happened last year with Danielson and the Hesjedal and then Wiggins and then Vandevelde all who were not originally the leader.
This solves additionally the problem of who to make the leader as Hesjedal as the strongest rider will bear the reigns originally yet now instead of it being more of a shared power struggle between 2/3 it will be one rider and then 3 beneath something which is much more manageable.
- Jun 7, 2011
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theyoungest said:
Working towards all spring? Like last year? When he didn't do the Giro and didn't even know he MIGHT have GC legs?
30k out? Except that that wasn't an attack to go for stage win or GC gain, but to defend his position right before a dangerous descent, because he knows a snail goes downhill faster. His entire Giro has been the result of taking advantage of the situation, combined with talent. At that point, he was already top 10 and wanted to defend his GC spot. He started with no GC ambitions -by your own admission, being top 15 or 20 doesn't really count as a GC result (cfr Ten Dam, De Weert)- eventhough he hoped to do top 20. He hadn't prepared for the GC and was set to test the waters with the Vuelta in mind, and go for stage wins. He flatout said he had done too many racing days to assume to do that well in the Giro.
Bala Verde said:
About 30 times combined yes... in the last decade, not specifically for this Giro. He didn't change anything specifically in his training schedule for this Giro.
movingtarget said:
De Gendt set to do the ride of his life on saturday...
... though it will be a different kind of ride entirely
*ba-da-boom-cha*
- May 5, 2009
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Poursuivant said:
You'd think so but he could crash. Seems good odds though, he is now 1/3
Quite like these top rider by nationality markets, not seen them before.
Not sure what David Millar is doing at 20-1 in the top English rider market. He's scottish!
Think that Rolland and Peraud are decent rider in the top French rider contest.
Top US rider:
6/4 Leipheimer
4/1 Danielson
Top Dutch rider:
16/1 Kruijswijck
You'd think Gesink should win easily but if there is a mishap then Kruijswijck should stand a good chance. There are others too but people like Mollema and Poels are shorter. 16/1 looks generous to me.
- May 28, 2012
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Logic-is-your-friend said:
De Gendt undeniably lost time on at least one contender on each MTF before the Stelvio, despite of his top form.(he really worked towards the Giro, wheter you believe it or not) On the Stelvio he had the advantage of knowing the climb really well, and having only one guy(vdVelde) chasing him. His strong recovery should be noted as well ofc. He also showed that in the 2011 Tour, after being injured for two weeks.
De Gendt is a very talented rider imo, but he lacks in pure climbing(he'll improve, but his TT might suffer) and positioning. If he wants to be considered a Tour contender he'll have to show that he can win a mountain stage in a man-to-man fight.
The other problem with De Gendt is that I liked his attacking style, but this Giro might have been the last big move of the 'scorpion of Beveren'. (??)
- May 20, 2009
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Of all articles on TdF favorites, a woman (not that is anything wrong with that), Goga from ESPN Deportes, has one of the best analysis I've seen thus far. Unlike those biased articles from Velonews or you know who
She thinks...
***** Evans and Wiggins
**** Leipheimer and Menchov
*** Klöden, Gesink and Nibali
** Horner, Schleck, Van den Broeck and Hesjedal
http://espndeportes.espn.go.com/news/story?id=1554637&s=otr&type=column
I wonder what Libertine has to say?
She thinks...
***** Evans and Wiggins
**** Leipheimer and Menchov
*** Klöden, Gesink and Nibali
** Horner, Schleck, Van den Broeck and Hesjedal
http://espndeportes.espn.go.com/news/story?id=1554637&s=otr&type=column
I wonder what Libertine has to say?
- Jun 14, 2010
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Im not seeing too much love for Peter Velits.
This is a tt heavy parcors, and Velits has one hell of a tt in his locker.
As for the mountains, there were 2 surprise guys who finished in the Evans Schleck group on Lalpe last year and people have overlooked both.
I kept saying after that performance - beware of Tommy D G and the promise showed on that hot July day proved true last month in the Giro.
Well the other guy was Peter Velits, a gt podium finisher no less (even if the contenders list was not first class).
If he can rediscover that awessome tt ability that saw him win a Vuelta stage, and bring out that climbing form he has shown on more than 1 occasion, he is a very good dark horse for top 5 even pushing podium.
This is a tt heavy parcors, and Velits has one hell of a tt in his locker.
As for the mountains, there were 2 surprise guys who finished in the Evans Schleck group on Lalpe last year and people have overlooked both.
I kept saying after that performance - beware of Tommy D G and the promise showed on that hot July day proved true last month in the Giro.
Well the other guy was Peter Velits, a gt podium finisher no less (even if the contenders list was not first class).
If he can rediscover that awessome tt ability that saw him win a Vuelta stage, and bring out that climbing form he has shown on more than 1 occasion, he is a very good dark horse for top 5 even pushing podium.
- Jun 7, 2011
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Pentacycle said:
Oh, ok. If you say so...
lol
An interview during the Giro: "Of ik had gedacht dat ik nu 12e zou zijn? Zeker niet. Ik had mezelf vooraf geen doel gesteld voor het klassement. /.../ De drie lastigste ritten komen eraan, maar ik denk toch wel dat ik hier bij de beste 20 klimmers hoor. In principe moet ik in de top 20 kunnen eindigen." /.../ De Gendt rijdt in de nazomer de Vuelta. Met welke ambitie start hij daar? "Ik wou daar sowieso al eens iets proberen in het klassement. Maar ik ga me wel anders voorbereiden: gerichter trainen bergop en proberen een beetje minder te wegen."
For the non-Dutch speakers, the most important parts: GC wasn't a goal before entering the Giro, will prepare differently for the Vuelta as he will be riding with GC in mind (as opposed to the Giro), by focussing more on climbing and losing weight. Meaning he did not do this for his Giro prep. Case closed, thanks for playing. As if 40 race days is optimal preparation for a GT GC.
Not going to comment on this any further. It's been off-topic long enough.
- May 13, 2011
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- Jul 19, 2010
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The poll is now tied between Wiggo and Evans, right before the Tour starts. At least from the CN forum standpoint, the expectations are the same for both men at the start. I think this will be a tight battle between them throughout the whole 3 weeks.
- Sep 9, 2009
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Wiggins continues to get even tighter with bookmakers (as opposed to polls of Australian teenagers).
I presume this is due to everyone seeing how awesome his hair is at the presentation.
I presume this is due to everyone seeing how awesome his hair is at the presentation.
- Sep 9, 2009
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Betfair has Nibali, VDB, Froome then Menchov as the next favourites, but they're all priced as also-rans.
The Hitch said:
Hey, not everyone overlooked Thomas DG
Yeah, Peter Velits has shown he can tt with the best and also at times climb with the best. I keep on expecting him to join the two together at some point and do a result as impressive, or more impressive, than his 2010 Vuelta. Hasnt done it yet, maybe his season is being aimed at the tour though?
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