Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Of course a British betting office is biased, because the British people are. You'll find shorter odds on Gesink in Holland than in any other country, that's just the way it works.

Did you read the post?

Betfair is British registered but with an open international clientele.

They don't release figures on client location, so i checked an Australian site. Wiggins favourite there too, by a similar margin.

But it must be national bias, even though it's in line with prices globally.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

God, Waterloo Sunrise, your jingoism no bounds, and makes me ashamed of my 50 percent British ancestry, the vast majority of which is English. It's a good thing my name is thoroughly Polish, and so most people think I have no connection with all things Anglophile....

I'm sorry.

OK, Betfair is a biased British company.

And Sporting Bet Australia is also a biased British company.

Rumf Munf Glumf.

 

[richtea]

Of course a British betting office is biased, because the British people are. You'll find shorter odds on Gesink in Holland than in any other country, that's just the way it works.

If this was true, then this would open up the possibility of international arbitrage opportunities with loads of people piling in to make risk free profits.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

If you genuinely believed that, you would try to exploit this information to your maximum advantage. You've made your fortune presumably?

I try not to bet too much.
many times I have made quite the profit when riders have stupid odds for races that suit them yes (i.e boom prologue 51-1); Not always true I admit, but it isn't unusual to find great odds for a rider with a genuine shot. Compared to other sports I bet on anyway, cycling has a lot of potential for profit, especially for those willing to dedicate some time to it.

 

[stefank]

I'm sorry.

OK, Betfair is a biased British company.

And Sporting Bet Australia is also a biased British company.

Rumf Munf Glumf.

Speak not to me of bookmakers. I have no interest in them, nor their activities.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

ok this conversation is stupid.

Waterloo's point is that general opinion labels wiggins the favorite, which is fair enough. Wiggins in the media is more or less the favorite, with evans slightly behind.

But many take that with a grain of salt, it means nothing, and prefer the opinions of meaningful sources; which may even include some of the members on this forum, not the poll specifically.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Speak not to me of bookmakers. I have no interest in them, nor their activities.

Probably best not to make childish accusations of 'jingoism' (although I was not aware I was advocating war anywhere in this thread) because you can't read what is plainly written then.

 

[The Hitch]

Of course a British betting office is biased, because the British people are. You'll find shorter odds on Gesink in Holland than in any other country, that's just the way it works.

Isn't this a case of deliberately shortening the odds of home athletes because far more people.are likely to bet on them so using longer odds to encourage them to do so is not needed. in other words not bias on the part of the betting shows but a business strategy.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

ok this conversation is stupid.

Waterloo's point is that general opinion labels wiggins the favorite, which is fair enough. Wiggins in the media is more or less the favorite, with evans slightly behind.

But many take that with a grain of salt, it means nothing, and prefer the opinions of meaningful sources; which may even include some of the members on this forum, not the poll specifically.

I'll live with that, with the caveat that I'm not much impressed by 'meaningful sources'. When it comes to things this subjective, the wisdom of crowds is often better than the SMEs.

 

[theyoungest]

I'll live with that, with the caveat that I'm not much impressed by 'meaningful sources'. When it comes to things this subjective, the wisdom of crowds is often better than the SMEs.

There will be Bits placing their bets who have never even heard of Denis Menchov, but have just read about Bradley Wiggins in the local newspaper.

There's the wisdom of crowds for you.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

And there will be smug people like you queueing up to separate fools from their money.

Please stop, you don't seem to understand how an exchange works.

If lots of idiots push the market to the wrong price, there are plenty of sensible people to take advantage. Think of the money you could make laying Wiggins back out to whatever price you think is rational.

Presumably Sporting Bet Australia has equally been afflicted by mentally stunted British people?

 

[AussieEdge]

I dont take notice of the 'Odds' when it comes to Le tour - anything can happen

Cadel was not favourite in 2011 and I doubt he will be the last 'non favourite' to win Le Tour.

I know Wiggins is a top shelf Time Trialer but what about his abilities in the Pyransee? I like to think that's where Cadel's advantage is.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I dont take notice of the 'Odds' when it comes to Le tour - anything can happen

Cadel was not favourite in 2011 and I doubt he will be the last 'non favourite' to win Le Tour.

I know Wiggins is a top shelf Time Trialer but what about his abilities in the Pyransee? I like to think that's where Cadel's advantage is.

I assume you mean "Pyrenees"

 

[AussieEdge]

sorry about that chief

Between Wimbledon and the French Open my number of hours sleep has diminished somewhat & its almost midnight here

 

[Ferminal]

unrelated I was reading the ozzie tdf magazine today, apparently bmc have the strongest team in all regards.

Yeh... even though its got no mountain superdom, which makes it no better than any of Evans' teams of years gone by.

I'm sorry.

And Sporting Bet Australia is also a British company.

Their cycling markets are set by their British parent, yes.

 

[theyoungest]

Presumably Sporting Bet Australia has equally been afflicted by mentally stunted British people?

Ferminal kindly informed us: yes, it has

 

[TheEnoculator]

I wonder what Sky will do if Froome turns up in vroom mode in the first ITT

They'll still stick with Wiggo. This is the Tour, not the Vuelta, Sky was built to win the Tour with a Brit and Wiggo is showing phenomenal form this year, he has the chance to do it now. Froome is not going there as co-captain, he's not going there as a GC option, he's going there, like the seven other guys to protect Wiggo. So Sky won't all of a sudden make a domestique a protected man because of a 6km prologue.

If Froome out-climbs Wiggo big time in the third week AND Wiggo loses 10 minutes AND Froome is in the top 3 in GC, then I see Sky switching to Froome. Barring any bad luck, I don't see this scenario happening.

 

[LaFlorecita]

sorry about that chief

Between Wimbledon and the French Open my number of hours sleep has diminished somewhat & its almost midnight here

No worries, no worries.

 

[FignonLeGrand]

If this was true, then this would open up the possibility of international arbitrage opportunities with loads of people piling in to make risk free profits.

Of course its true. Just look at football. England are always the favorites with the bookmakers in England because the English put most money on them. OK I know thats just stupiod but hey.

Bookmaker will always lower the odds because they might just fluke it and they need to cover risk.

 

[FignonLeGrand]

Isn't this a case of deliberately shortening the odds of home athletes because far more people.are likely to bet on them so using longer odds to encourage them to do so is not needed. in other words not bias on the part of the betting shows but a business strategy.

No its just covering your risk. If everyone bets on one person and you leave the odds too long youll go bust

 

[jilbiker]

who is mentally strong

Grand tours are different from your 1 week stage races. Like Majors in Tennis or Golf, you have to be mentally tough to win. I have my doubts on Wiggins, but then I had justifiable doubts on Evans last year, he has crumbled in the past. But last year he stretched himself for once and overcame challenging moments. Tough mountain stages like a Zoncolan at the end of a stage would crumble Wiggins. But there is no such stage in this TdF, its a "soft" TdF yet its TdF, is Wiggins mentally tough? We'll see. I have my doubts

 

[FignonLeGrand]

Grand tours are different from your 1 week stage races. Like Majors in Tennis or Golf, you have to be mentally tough to win. I have my doubts on Wiggins, but then I had justifiable doubts on Evans last year, he has crumbled in the past. But last year he stretched himself for once and overcame challenging moments. Tough mountain stages like a Zoncolan at the end of a stage would crumble Wiggins. But there is no such stage in this TdF, its a "soft" TdF yet its TdF, is Wiggins mentally tough? We'll see. I have my doubts

Why do you have your doubts, expand on this...... Is that just a nice way of saying you dont want him to win? He is a multiple Olympic gold winner, a multiple stage race winner so why should he have less mental strength than others?

Looking at his past issues with drink and what could appear to be signs of depression and the subsequent way he has trandsformed himself I am not sure that wouldnt make him stronger not weaker....

 

[Froome19]

Grand tours are different from your 1 week stage races. Like Majors in Tennis or Golf, you have to be mentally tough to win. I have my doubts on Wiggins, but then I had justifiable doubts on Evans last year, he has crumbled in the past. But last year he stretched himself for once and overcame challenging moments. Tough mountain stages like a Zoncolan at the end of a stage would crumble Wiggins. But there is no such stage in this TdF, its a "soft" TdF yet its TdF, is Wiggins mentally tough? We'll see. I have my doubts

He hds checked all the possible right boxes over the past 18 months so I would be inclined to say... yes he is mentally tough enough.
Also I just cant see a guy like Wiggins not having the mental assurity when he is so motivated and determined.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Their cycling markets are set by their British parent, yes.

Ferminal kindly informed us: yes, it has

Does everyone need me to explain how bookmakers work again?

Odds are set in reponse to the bets of clients, so it really doesn't matter who owns it.

I just tried 3 other Australian sites, and in a shock move, they all had Wiggins ahead by a similar margin.

 

[bicifan]

1. Evans
2. Gesink
3. Hesjedal