Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[will10]

I went for Cadel in the first poll, and I'm sticking with him. I wouldn't be sorry to see Bradley win but when it comes down to it I think Evans will have the goods.

 

[theyoungest]

wiggo will attack.you heard it here first.

You mean attack like this?

 

[jens_attacks]

You mean attack like this?

nope.

in spinning mode just like here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?list=U...X_UV0mJVwOs&feature=player_detailpage#t=2939s


multiplied by 100

 

[TheEnoculator]

What do people have against Wiggins anyways?

 

[jsem94]

I voted Wiggins. Just seems like it's the way it's going to go.

 

[vcampbell]

Are you seriously talking about wiggins again??

Are you seriously don't pay attention? He has talked about VDB2.
Anyway I could say this is about Wiggins too. There are hate from other people, so they say that he wouldn't be good enough. Argument? Not really, only because no.

 

[TheEnoculator]

Why do people talk about Rolland winning? Yeah he had a good Tour last year, but to win the Tour you need more than individual performance, you need a team that's assembled around you. Rolland doesn't have that luxury. Besides, has a pro continental team ever won the Tour?

 

[WindLessBreeze]

Hinault's 1985...Long long time & counting

France, once hailed as the Mecca of cycling, hasn't got a TdF winner since 1985......Fignon came close in 89, but failed to Lemond in the closest call ever> Winning by 50 sec in last day's long ITT; the American, wearing what seemed like out of space helmet and profile bars at the time, pulled a win by 8 sec; while Fignon, with his pony tail and office' glasses, looked more like a jazz musician than a rider. Now France has got only 2 WT teams (Both Ag2r and FdJ being rather low tier), plus the Pro' Conti's Europcar, Cofidis, plus other wild cards entries. While Spain and Italy are on top of UCI's point system (by countries), and Belgium and Australia fight for 3rd spot; We've seen UK grown, as well as US recently......Germany has stalled, as well as The Netherlands....Eastern Europeans and Scandinavians have also grown....But France? DROPPED

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

France, once hailed as the Mecca of cycling, hasn't got a TdF winner since 1985......Fignon came close in 89, but failed to Lemond in the closest call ever> Winning by 50 sec in last day's long ITT; the American, wearing what seemed like out of space helmet and profile bars at the time, pulled a win by 8 sec; while Fignon, with his pony tail and office' glasses, looked more like a jazz musician than a rider. Now France has got only 2 WT teams (Both Ag2r and FdJ being rather low tier), plus the Pro' Conti's Europcar, Cofidis, plus other wild cards entries. While Spain and Italy are on top of UCI's point system (by countries), and Belgium and Australia fight for 3rd spot; We've seen UK grown, as well as US recently......Germany has stalled, as well as The Netherlands....Eastern Europeans and Scandinavians have also grown....But France? DROPPED

You talk about not having a TDF winner since 85, but also mention Belgium as "fighting for place 3 for UCI"... but we haven't had a GT GC contender for decades. Now, since a couple of years, we have JvdB. Monfort has been a long time up-&-come'r, to the extend that he now is 30 or so, same for De Weert. Neither having ever lived up to their potential. And since recently, we have De Gendt and Vanendert who still both have to confirm in a huge way. So mentioning Belgium, really isn't making your argument as far as GT go. Classics etc, sure.

Of course, but he has been a pro for 9 years, how much room for improvement is there really? I mean, he's not a Lieuwe Westra who decided recently that he wanted to be a climber.

There is plenty of room for improvement for a rider between age 27 and age 31. Especially if you're a late bloomer. But more importantly, in 2010 he was 27 and two of the guys in front of him are out of the race, and the other two are now 34. I would say the age difference shifted in his advantage, compared to 2010. So i don't see why he has to defend his opinion of seeing JvdB podium. He isn't even claiming he could win. Which he could, along with 5 or so others, but definitely as outsiders.

The definition of "young" in sports doesn't include someone who's 29 years old, I don't think. Certainly not in a time when 20-year-old whippersnappers are dominating the sport

Who would this 20 year old be that is dominating GT GC? Evans? Hesjedal? Or maybe you meant thirty-something? Funny how all the contenders are supposedly between 31 and 35 here.

 

[gustienordic]

What do people have against Wiggins anyways?

He speaks English. I feel like alot of the people here have tried to distance themselves from most English speakers because of Lance, Levi, RSNT, etc. It also seems we have a few hipster cycling fans who don't want to cheer for riders who are too mainstream/popular.

But the main reason, I think is the fear of being associated with the "dirty/boring/wheelsucking/etc" that is associated with English speaking riders. I could be wrong on this, but that is my impression.

EDIT: I think another reason is that he is a TT specialist, so he doesn't attack as much, which people find to be boring. They would rather see attacks from a ways out that shatter the competition. Like Contador could do.

 

[TheEnoculator]

He speaks English. I feel like alot of the people here have tried to distance themselves from most English speakers because of Lance, Levi, RSNT, etc. It also seems we have a few hipster cycling fans who don't want to cheer for riders who are too mainstream/popular.

But the main reason, I think is the fear of being associated with the "dirty/boring/wheelsucking/etc" that is associated with English speaking riders. I could be wrong on this, but that is my impression.

EDIT: I think another reason is that he is a TT specialist, so he doesn't attack as much, which people find to be boring. They would rather see attacks from a ways out that shatter the competition. Like Contador could do.

Actually you confirmed my suspicion. I suspected it was because he's a boring rider that people don't like him. Well, with only 3 summit finishes and 101 km of TT, do people seriously believe that somehow this Tour will be exciting? Even if Wiggins isn't in it, the other riders could only attack so much in the mountains. This is a TT specialist's Tour, it was designed to be that way.

As for the English speaking part, I didn't expect that. Because Cadel speaks English and people love him.

 

[Afrank]

nope.

in spinning mode just like here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?list=U...X_UV0mJVwOs&feature=player_detailpage#t=2939s


multiplied by 100

Not really an attack, all he was doing was closing the gap. For it to be considered an attack he would have had to keep going past that group.

What do people have against Wiggins anyways?

Probably because he does alot of wheelsucking. Personally I do not want to see Wiggins win because he will most likely do it by having his team chase down the climbers and then winning in the TT. Most people like to see the tours won by riders who take risks and attack, and Wiggins so far hasn't done this. However I do hope Wiggins proves me wrong and does attack, though I doubt he will.

 

[gerundium]

He speaks English. I feel like alot of the people here have tried to distance themselves from most English speakers because of Lance, Levi, RSNT, etc. It also seems we have a few hipster cycling fans who don't want to cheer for riders who are too mainstream/popular.

But the main reason, I think is the fear of being associated with the "dirty/boring/wheelsucking/etc" that is associated with English speaking riders. I could be wrong on this, but that is my impression.

EDIT: I think another reason is that he is a TT specialist, so he doesn't attack as much, which people find to be boring. They would rather see attacks from a ways out that shatter the competition. Like Contador could do.

He is the quintessential GC contender that leans on his TT. His goal is to assemble (or create....) a hugely motivated squad to push a pace just high enough for him to hold on over the mountains and not let anyone attack and rely on his TT to bring in the win. Hence the cynical, but scarily accurate, name UK Postal.

If done well enough it sucks the excitement completely out of the competition because we will be watching day after day of Sky TTTing up a mountain and other favorites waiting until 2k to go so they can make a supra-threshold effort and not pay for it at the line. We've seen the last rehearsal at the Dauphine, with the exception of Wiggins getting a little frisky to boost morale by closing that little gap.

That is reason people don't look well towards wiggins, his riding style creates a boring race. (together with some issues better suited to the clinic).

 

[wollollo]

He is the quintessential GC contender that leans on his TT. His goal is to assemble (or create....) a hugely motivated squad to push a pace just high enough for him to hold on over the mountains and not let anyone attack and rely on his TT to bring in the win. Hence the cynical, but scarily accurate, name UK Postal.

If done well enough it sucks the excitement completely out of the competition because we will be watching day after day of Sky TTTing up a mountain and other favorites waiting until 2k to go so they can make a supra-threshold effort and not pay for it at the line. We've seen the last rehearsal at the Dauphine, with the exception of Wiggins getting a little frisky to boost morale by closing that little gap.

That is reason people don't look well towards wiggins, his riding style creates a boring race. (together with some issues better suited to the clinic).

I don't know, I mean obviously this is why people dislike him, but I have a great appreciation for the systematism of the Sky approach -- do what you need to do and do it right (and nothing else) -- and as long as they pull it off it looks amazing. But it does mean the excitement is more "will they fail?" and less "will someone succeed?".

 

[TheEnoculator]

Probably because he does alot of wheelsucking. Personally I do not want to see Wiggins win because he will most likely do it by having his team chase down the climbers and then winning in the TT. Most people like to see the tours won by riders who take risks and attack, and Wiggins so far hasn't done this. However I do hope Wiggins proves me wrong and does attack, though I doubt he will.

I doubt Wiggins will attack. He's got a strong team slaving for him, there are only 3 summit finishes, and he LOVES being on his TT bike. This will be an easy Tour for him to win. Why make it harder by attacking? Just to entertain the fans? I don't think so.

In Dauphine, I love how he just sat on Porte's wheel (and Porte's doing ALL the work), then when the lead group was in sight, he jumped ship with a bit of solo riding, and attached himself to the lead group like a leech. Ha.

 

[Afrank]

Actually you confirmed my suspicion. I suspected it was because he's a boring rider that people don't like him. Well, with only 3 summit finishes and 101 km of TT, do people seriously believe that somehow this Tour will be exciting? Even if Wiggins isn't in it, the other riders could only attack so much in the mountains. This is a TT specialist's Tour, it was designed to be that way.

As for the English speaking part, I didn't expect that. Because Cadel speaks English and people love him.

It's definitely a time trialist tour, but there are more HC climbs which in theory could create more opportunities for long range attacks like Schleck did last year.

 

[karlboss]

He is the quintessential GC contender that leans on his TT. His goal is to assemble (or create....) a hugely motivated squad to push a pace just high enough for him to hold on over the mountains and not let anyone attack and rely on his TT to bring in the win. Hence the cynical, but scarily accurate, name UK Postal.

If done well enough it sucks the excitement completely out of the competition because we will be watching day after day of Sky TTTing up a mountain and other favorites waiting until 2k to go so they can make a supra-threshold effort and not pay for it at the line. We've seen the last rehearsal at the Dauphine, with the exception of Wiggins getting a little frisky to boost morale by closing that little gap.

That is reason people don't look well towards wiggins, his riding style creates a boring race. (together with some issues better suited to the clinic).

and also the way he left garmin for sky

 

[Pentacycle]

Remember Wiggins in the 2010 Giro? (Ferrara-Asolo)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0wFcX3XFKw&feature=youtu.be&t=32m51s

This proves he can attack, in the Dauphiné he just responded to others' attacks. But will he do it when he's riding for GC unlike he did in that Giro? Doubt it....

 

[cineteq]

Remember Wiggins in the 2010 Giro? (Ferrara-Asolo)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0wFcX3XFKw&feature=youtu.be&t=32m51s

This proves he can attack, in the Dauphiné he just responded to others' attacks. But will he do it when he's riding for GC unlike he did in that Giro? Doubt it....

You mean he can be let go, right?
And who's won?

Stage 14 results
1 Vicenzo Nibali (Liquigas) - 0:20
2 Ivan Basso (Liquigas) + 0:23 - 0:12
3 Michele Scarponi (Androni) - 0:08
4 Cadel Evans (BMC)
5 Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana) + 1:34
6 Branislau Samoilau (Quick Step) + 2:25
7 Bauke Mollema (Rabobank)
8 Damiano Cunego (Lampre-Farnese)
9 Linus Gerdemann (Milram)
10 Marco Pinotti (HTC-Columbia)

 

[Parrulo]

Remember Wiggins in the 2010 Giro? (Ferrara-Asolo)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0wFcX3XFKw&feature=youtu.be&t=32m51s

This proves he can attack, in the Dauphiné he just responded to others' attacks. But will he do it when he's riding for GC unlike he did in that Giro? Doubt it....

ya nice example of an attack, as soon as the liquitrain decided to hammer it he was caught and dropped almost instantly.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

NL Postal should win team competition at least. if there are any well raced mountain stages youd expect Kruiswick Mollema and Gesink to be the best 3 of any team.

I dunno if the others are better I could imagine Mollema just strolling along (after domestique duties I mean).

Wiggo has only done races that suit him, with one semi-selective climb and a TT as decisive moments in the race. How would he have fared in Suisse or Pais Vasco, where there was actual attacking going on in the climbs?

I think Cadel Evans has to be the favourite. He wasn't far off his level last year in the Dauphine, and we all saw how strong he was then in the final week of the Tour. I'm not convinced Wiggins has the recovery to match that.

agreed. This overwhelming favorite thing is a bit of a joke considering he has never outclimbed any of the big favorites. GTs recently have rarely gone as expected.

Easy to state that sky will easily control things and it will all go to plan.

Where is the Dutch mafia when you need it...DT, theyoungest, hrotha, timmy, etc? Are you guys gave up and now joined those who say:
"I reluctantly voted Wiggins".

I'd never vote for wiggins. zhim winning tour is worst case scenario, where it comes to the point I will be rooting for cuddles.

Hrotha dutch mafia

Good to see how hate or love to different riders can change people point of view.
But the best, that hate will not affect Wiggins chances to win his first GT.

yes because realistic critiscm of wiggins is 'hating'. Sorry that not everyone on this forum buys into the 'OMFG wiggo is invincible; ****' bs.

I hope and pray that you're right!

+1 . Doubt it tho.

has there been any talk of how samu is travelling?

As for the English speaking part, I didn't expect that. Because Cadel speaks English and people love him.

wiggins is evans (in terms of people loving him) last year. Sure he had his fanboys ala dwl and acf, but lots hated the idea of cuddles winning the tour.

Wiggo is even worse, his fanboys have been silly annoying with the hype and wiggo can do no wrong attitude. Sadly, it is human nature to react with a disliking of said rider, and I admit my flaws to disliking wiggo more and more as the fanboys get worse and worse (ps. im convinced without ACF I wouldn't have disliked cuddles as much as I did.). I understand it is a pitiful reason, but it is what it is.

That being said, Wiggo is not the type of rider I like at all and this is the core reason I dislike him (also everything he says in the media makes me cringe, he really is a tool), never seen him put a meaningful attack on a climb and merely take time time trials; as previous mentioned it is style which is not only boring but attempts to neutralize any entertainment. At least Evans can be an aggresive rider in the steep hily finishes and is one of the most versatile riders of this generation. I of course cant blame the guy for riding like this, ride to your strengths but I am not about to like this style of riding, screw that.

It's definitely a time trialist tour, but there are more HC climbs which in theory could create more opportunities for long range attacks like Schleck did last year.

obvious statement, but yes they have to try and make wiggo react. They simply cant let sky control the race.

ya nice example of an attack, as soon as the liquitrain decided to hammer it he was caught and dropped almost instantly.

was actually one of the most hilarious moments on CN. When wiggo attacked dim (TSF) went crazy saying he all told us how good wiggo was, then a minute later...

 

[orangerider]

Wiggins will probably take it based upon latest news of the riders. Especially now with Cavendish saying how he's lost top end due to weight loss - sure, but that really sounds like an excuse to expect him not to win more than 2-3 stages on his own, no train at all, because the support will go to Wiggins instead. Essentially, Cav will have to pull off Oscar Freire style wins this year.

 

[dlwssonic]

Cav still has knees, eisel and EBH.
But its not a full team like last year this time.

I have heard that the first TT is a techincal one, is it true.

 

[dlwssonic]

Even with only one ITT I'd be ruling out a climber from this tour, sadly. I appreciate it's no longer the anniversary of the great mountain passes but surely a race where, in any given year, different styles can compete for overall victory would be favourable? I'm actually almost hoping the climbers forget about GC and focus on KotM (but it'll never happen, finishing 7th overall is just soooo much more coveted). Green Jersey could even top last year too and will be my main focus watching.

The lack of elite climber in top form hurts Evans. Sky won't have to respond to anyone but Evans & Menchov as they won't be considered a serious overall threat. They are strong enough to go uphill at a decent enough pace to ensure a VdB or Gessink won't gain enough time. So unless Wiggins has a really off day there is no need for panic.

Evans is great if the peloton shatters on a climb, but he can't instigate that himself. Sky can protect Wiggins almost infinitely better than BMC can shelter Evans (unless I've overlooked any great offseason grand-domestique acquisitions they've made). I think the euphemism "one for the pureists" could be appropriate here. Still took some time off though, so hope springs eternal somewhere deep in my subconscious!

1. Wiggins
2. Evans
3. Froome*
4. Nibali
5. Fuglsang**

*or Nibali if the road is melting or wet on stages with mountain descent finishes.
** assuming there is no clear team leader he has to break his back for.

You didn't watch the tour last year I guess.
You should have seen how BMC kept cadel at the front for nearly every stage, thus leaving him crash free.
BMC did a very good job of protecting evans so its not as if sky are that much better at it.
Of course BMC is not as strong in the mountains. But very few contenders will have any domestiques left when the real action starts anyway.
Yes the loss of andy might affect cadel.
There is still frank, gesink, sanchez. They are all attacking riders who can climb very well.

 

[dlwssonic]

Well said timmy.
Never understood the wiggins hype.
And his fans can get very annoying at times.