Who will win 2012 Tour de France v2.0

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Seems like people are realising who the favourite is.
Cadel is catching up with wiggins quickly.

Meanwhile, on betfair where people actually have skin in the game, the market moves the other way.

 

[BillytheKid]

It's an older, wiser Cadel who's not really shown much this year and has had some illness vs. the stellar Wiggins. I am still going with Cadel because of his experience and track-record of podium finishes. Wiggins has upped his game, but has never put it all togather in a Grand Tour.

Cadel is on the rise. His lack of show in the Duapine ITT is perhaps a concern, but the experienced man knows his body and I don't that is far off top form.

 

[theyoungest]

Remarkable. Breukink in an interview with WF (wielerflits), said Rabobank will look to attack in the mountains. And he names Movistar as most prominent other team that would have to do the same. Maybe they made some sort of deal in ToS already, when Gesink was riding with movistar behind Schleck...

I don't think so. Breukink just mentions another team with mediocre time trialists, off the top of his head.

Gesink always rides on the front, because he's not a very smart rider. Not because they've made a secret deal with Movistar.

 

[RedZone]

Meanwhile, on betfair where people actually have skin in the game, the market moves the other way.

You can take the field here vs Wiggans at $1.65. Convince me that isnt a good bet.

 

[simo1733]

It's an older, wiser Cadel who's not really shown much this year and has had some illness vs. the stellar Wiggins. I am still going with Cadel because of his experience and track-record of podium finishes. Wiggins has upped his game, but has never put it all togather in a Grand Tour.

Cadel is on the rise. His lack of show in the Duapine ITT is perhaps a concern, but the experienced man knows his body and I don't that is far off top form.

I am leaning towards Cadel but I think he will have to rely on more than the mountains to gain enough time to defend in the TT.
I can't see anyone finnishing infront of those two without some luck.I might make a modest wager on Gesink as an outside bet rather than anyone else.His TT has improved and he has a very strong if misfiring team

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

You can take the field here vs Wiggans at $1.65. Convince me that isnt a good bet.

Wiggins and Evans are both excessively short.

 

[patterson_hood]

For Some reason I've now started to think Gesink will win it.

 

[BillytheKid]

Still voted Wiggins.

As I keep saying there are too few mountain stages with the mountains at the right place. Either the finishing climb is too weak (La Toussiere). Or the last climb is too far from the finish line...

Only an injury or hunger knock or something can keep Wiggins from winning.

He's going to blow. He can't handle three weeks. Somthing of a story if he doesn't, performing at top form all year. That would be great!

 

[cineteq]

For Some reason I've now started to think Gesink will win it.

Actually, I read an article that the team is aiming for top 10, which is kind of bad news - Gesink might not be as ready as some of us expected

 

[theyoungest]

Actually, I read an article that the team is aiming for top 10, which is kind of bad news - Gesink might not be as ready as some of us expected

What did you expect them to say? We think we can win the Tour? They're not as crazy as some of us think they are

 

[cineteq]

What did you expect them to say? We think we can win the Tour? They're not as crazy as some of us think they are

Valverde is aiming for the podium. Ok I get it, it's a Dutch thing, I should not read much into it

 

[Leonardus]

Actually, I read an article that the team is aiming for top 10, which is kind of bad news - Gesink might not be as ready as some of us expected

Think they are just realistic about someone who broke his leg 9 months ago. The proces of fully recovering to 100% takes a whole year, besides not exactly a parcours that suits him. Rabo has a strong team but I would be surprised if one of their youngsters makes it to the top 5.
Something else, why isn't Nibali mentioned more as a serious contender? He is doing very well this season, has the GT experience, decent TT, good climbing and even better decending and rides quite aggresive. He could be a serious threat for Wiggins and Evans.

 

[patterson_hood]

Actually, I read an article that the team is aiming for top 10, which is kind of bad news - Gesink might not be as ready as some of us expected

Damn, may have to drop him from my Halfords team. I was hoping he'd finish top 5 in all the mountain stage and maybe take one.

 

[taiwan]

Actually, I read an article that the team is aiming for top 10, which is kind of bad news - Gesink might not be as ready as some of us expected

IDK looking at how good his TT is now, I'd be inclined not to hold too much stock in that statement. If I were him I'd be pretty confident, although IDK how smart it is to have 3 riders independently trying to ride themselves into the top ten. Maybe they'll let the road pick a leader (Gesink ).

 

[cineteq]

Think they are just realistic about someone who broke his leg 9 months ago. The proces of fully recovering to 100% takes a whole year, besides not exactly a parcours that suits him.

He's young and he's an athlete, so less than a year is possible for him to recover as he's shown in California and Suisse. Right now Gesink is a complete rider, so this parcours suits him.

why isn't Nibali mentioned more as a serious contender? He is doing very well this season, has the GT experience, decent TT, good climbing and even better decending and rides quite aggresive. He could be a serious threat for Wiggins and Evans.

Must be because most posters here are Sky fans, so what else?

 

[theyoungest]

He's young and he's an athlete, so less than a year is possible for him to recover as he's shown in California and Suisse. Right now Gesink is a complete rider, so this parcours suit him.

He's probably recovered from the injury, but the Tour is about fitness, and freshness. Neither of those can possibly be at 100%, after a winter of revalidation.

 

[Bavarianrider]

The German cycling homepage radsport news has given it's stars like this


**** Wiggins & Evans
*****Nibali, Klöden, Van den Broeck, Leipheimer
***Schleck, Brajkovic, Menchov, Gesink, Sanchez
**T. Martin, Coppel, Hesjedal, Danielson, Mollema, Valverde
*Kessiakoff, Kiserlovski, Winokurow, Basso, Taaramae, VandeVelde, Rogers, Roche, Peraud, Scarponi, Rolland, Voeckler, Velits, Poels

http://www.radsport-news.com/sport/sportnews_75890.htm

 

[will10]

Kloden a bigger favourite than Menchov, Gesink and Sanchez, plus Vandevelde and Taaramae listed as outsiders, but no Froome. Nice.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

What did you expect them to say? We think we can win the Tour? They're not as crazy as some of us think they are

Still you can pretty much count on Gesink that he doesn't have 'top 10' in his head. I think Gesink himself is convinced he can top 3 or even win. But if he says that in the press they will publicly burn him if he fails like always in the Netherlands.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Kloden a bigger favourite than Menchov, Gesink and Sanchez, plus Vandevelde and Taaramae listed as outsiders, but no Froome. Nice.

+ Wiggins & Evans as 5th and 6th favourites.

 

[cineteq]

The German cycling homepage radsport news has given it's stars like this


***** Wiggins & Evans
**** Nibali, Klöden, Van den Broeck, Leipheimer
*** Schleck, Brajkovic, Menchov, Gesink, Sanchez
** T. Martin, Coppel, Hesjedal, Danielson, Mollema, Valverde
* Kessiakoff, Kiserlovski, Winokurow, Basso, Taaramae, VandeVelde, Rogers, Roche, Peraud, Scarponi, Rolland, Voeckler, Velits, Poels

http://www.radsport-news.com/sport/sportnews_75890.htm

Fixed it for ya, the stars were wrong. Disagree with Valverde, Sanchez and Gesink lower placement, otherwise look very objective, except for Klöden's

 

[Bavarianrider]

Fixed it for ya, the stars were wrong. Disagree with Valverde, Sanchez and Gesink lower placement, otherwise look very objective, except for Klöden's

Thanks, indeed some of the starts got lost.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

CN thinks the dark horses for this Tour are Menchov (Katusha), Rolland (Europcar), and Samuel Sánchez (Euskaltel). Even though Wigo and Cadel are the heavy favorites, Samu is 34 and this may be his last chance to win a Tour. I think he's going to be just a little bit extra motivated. He's my guy this time around.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/opinion-tour-de-france-dark-horses

 

[theyoungest]

The German cycling homepage radsport news has given it's stars like this


**** Wiggins & Evans
*****Nibali, Klöden, Van den Broeck, Leipheimer
***Schleck, Brajkovic, Menchov, Gesink, Sanchez
**T. Martin, Coppel, Hesjedal, Danielson, Mollema, Valverde
*Kessiakoff, Kiserlovski, Winokurow, Basso, Taaramae, VandeVelde, Rogers, Roche, Peraud, Scarponi, Rolland, Voeckler, Velits, Poels

http://www.radsport-news.com/sport/sportnews_75890.htm

Lol, a very reasonable prediction... except for the two Germans.

 

[cineteq]

Stop the press!!!!!
Hesjedal: "We saw what happened to the favourites on paper at the Giro. I think I can win a Tour de France."