Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[taiwan]

Yeah I was considering if he could do that. A huge upset indeed, being rational I don't think it's possible, but I like that the team are going for it and I'll be happy to follow that storyline. Decent chance of being Garmin's best man as he climbs better than Danielson in form.

 

[theyoungest]

Hesjedal obviously has amazing recovery, but so does Alberto Contador... and even he couldn't quite cut it (of course, 5 crashes or so didn't help). And Contador was way ahead of Scarponi et al., unlike Hesjedal.

It would of course be another great victory for "clean" cycling

 

[will10]

Hesjedal is just going to cede too much to the TTers I think. If he's not the best of the Garmin guys, then he should drop some time and try to take out a stage.

 

[airstream]

Galic Ho, I handle Wiggo's prospect very reservedly because I don't think he is able to ride both climbs and time trials on equally high level for the win. In my view, it will be either something like in 2009 with slightly better TT (still not enough to win) or a cruel disappointment in the mountains because Wiggins hates when climbs are passed with multiple attacks and climbers can put unsolvable tasks in front of him. I just don't understand why you repent so much because of how many people vote for him. Surely all that is not without the influence of PR but mostly people vote for factual results Wiggo has in previous one and a half seasons.

lol, I thought everyone immediately catches that I'm not English native speaker. Well, at least it means I can be understood hehe. )

Ryder can easily hit top-10. Ivan would have been there if he hadn't been sick before the Pyrenees 2 years ago. Current Hesjedal is not weaker than that Basso.

 

[Maxiton]

How does the absence of a rider who last year rode for himself and was not part of the winning BMC team that supported Cadel Evans bode unwell? How exactly? Is he on form? Can he climb? Is he going to shelter Cadel better on the flats in the headwinds and crosswinds than Hincapie? Or Gilbert? Is he going to lead Cadel on some dare devil descent? Gilbert could do that.

Take Thor's role last year. Absolutely irrelevant in the final week for Tommy D. It was CVV who was of value. Dan Martin. Ryder...those guys on Garmin were the firepower. Thor was stage hunting. He's not vital for a GC team. It's theoretically better to excuse him, even more so if his form is off. One team objective, versus two. What did UPS/Disco do? Did anyone ever stage hunt whilst Lance won? Nope. BMC are doing the right thing. Sky should remove Cav from the team if they are serious about Wiggins as well. Will they? Yet people take them seriously. Armstrong wouldn't allow it and he won 7 Tours running.

People here need to wake up and get back to reality.

Wait, what? Are you psychotic? How much money do you think BMC is paying Hushovd for his services this year? He is supposed to be contributing to the team's primary objective, not absent from it. Clearly Evans doesn't need him, any more than he needs any other rider, but he certainly could use him.

Evans' team certainly hasn't gone as planned this year, and this development with Hushovd can't be leaving him feeling very secure.

What's your excuse?

I should have been less harsh in my response. You may very well be right about Hushovd and his absence. I'm a big fan, but it could be he is having attitude issues or some other problem that causes him not to work for Evans. In which case leaving him off the team would be the right thing to do, and "viral infection" a face saving way of doing it.

Since we don't know that, however, and have no real reason to suppose it, I think we have to take the team at their word. In any case, the team paid for a whole lot of rider they are now not going to have in Evans' Tour effort, and there can't be anyone in their camp who's happy about it.

Edit: If Hesjedal wins the Tour . . . oh, but surely not. I'm still scratching my head over his Lance-approved Giro performance, but at least it was within the realm of the probable, if only barely. Winning the double would just be way over the top.

 

[zigmeister]

Wiggins is about as good a TT as Cadel, but there is no-way Wiggins can hang with Evans in the big mountains that will surely come at the TDF. Wiggins might do well, but I don't see anybody stopping Evans from repeating.

Particularly after yesterday's beat down of the peloton at TdD where he basically just hammered home the victory with not much help, and a field of 100+ riders couldn't pull him back, including Wiggins own Sky team. Which Wiggins is claiming the Yellow jersey really isn't there goal...yeah right. Nice way to say you took a **** whooping from Cadel and your entire team had nothing, including Wiggins, to pull him back.

I'm no fan of Cadel Evans, but the guy comes through when he has to lately, and he is showing you better have your best game ready in 3 weeks when the TDF starts.

Schlecks, well you never know, they somehow take podiums even after lackluster early/mid season form.

 

[Gloin22]

Wiggins is about as good a TT as Cadel, but there is no-way Wiggins can hang with Evans in the big mountains that will surely come at the TDF. Wiggins might do well, but I don't see anybody stopping Evans from repeating.

Particularly after yesterday's beat down of the peloton at TdD where he basically just hammered home the victory with not much help, and a field of 100+ riders couldn't pull him back, including Wiggins own Sky team. Which Wiggins is claiming the Yellow jersey really isn't there goal...yeah right. Nice way to say you took a **** whooping from Cadel and your entire team had nothing, including Wiggins, to pull him back.

I'm no fan of Cadel Evans, but the guy comes through when he has to lately, and he is showing you better have your best game ready in 3 weeks when the TDF starts.

Schlecks, well you never know, they somehow take podiums even after lackluster early/mid season form.

Sorry but if you looked at Wiggo's expressions and attitude you would know he didnt want yellow... Sky didnt want to bring him back in first place. Had 7 riders in last 3km and didnt use any.

Although I agree with you. Similar or just slightly better in TT and Evans is more solid rider in mountains and on hilly stuff. Still for Wiggo a podium at the Tour would be achievement in itself.

 

[Magnus]

I'd hate for something like this to actually come about and if actual times were taken, the runner up was in front by about 5-10 seconds.

And yet you want time bonuses?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

And yet you want time bonuses?

Well, IMO a stage win should have more impact on the gc then +0.
And efforts like yesterday rewarding the brave just 3 seconds... Don't like.

I have no problems with time bonuses affecting gc personally, as they're not given cheaply but for effort.

And yes I understand the concept that it can lead to negative riding by some, but really I don't think that is the main reason.

 

[VeloCity]

Just barely though, if at all. Gilbert was decent in some early mountains in last year's Tour (and faded in the end), but with his shape of this year, it's unlikely he'll be of much use in the mountain stages in the Tour. Neither can Van Garderen, that guy can maybe hang on to a 30 men group if he has a really good day, but that's about it.

I think Gilbert will come good by the Tour, as he's said that he'd like to try for GC in the future and that riding for Evans will be a good learning experience. Might actually be one reason why Gilbert wasn't in top form in the spring, ie having a bit more of a focus on the Tour than previously. TVG will be riding purely in support mode with no pressure so he'll be riding himself into the side of the mountain on the lower slopes to help Evans without worrying about his own GC. I think he'll do fine in that role. Shame Pinotti won't be there, though, he'd be a huge all-around asset for Evans. Is Tschopp riding? He would help in the mountains too - 14th at the Giro, I think?

Having said that, as last year showed, Evans doesn't really need much help in the mountains, and BMC will be more than strong enough on the flats and hilly stages (though losing an engine like Hushvold is a bit of a blow). The question re: Sky is, how much do they devote to Wiggins and how much to Cavendish? Especially with Hushovd out, BMC has one advantage, in that they can focus solely on GC.

I'd give Evans the edge but I think Wiggins has a real shot, and hopefully Andy can get his act together in time, too. With Contador out, it's kind of nice going into a Tour without a real clear-cut favorite.

 

[Magnus]

Well, IMO a stage win should have more impact on the gc then +0.
And efforts like yesterday rewarding the brave just 3 seconds... Don't like.

I have no problems with time bonuses affecting gc personally, as they're not given cheaply but for effort.

And yes I understand the concept that it can lead to negative riding by some, but really I don't think that is the main reason.

Galic Ho was arguing that riders finishing in the same group should not get the same time. Which is rather strange but even stranger (imo) when he wants time bonuses at the same time.

 

[Gubby Allen]

Out of interest and unlikely as this is, is there a rider who would be capable of finishing in the Top 10 of all of the first weeks individual stages, including the prologue?

 

[Froome19]

Out of interest and unlikely as this is, is there a rider who would be capable of finishing in the Top 10 of all of the first weeks individual stages, including the prologue?

Havent looked at the Parcours but surely EBH and Sagan can do it, dont know whether Sagan's prologue will be top10 standard but surely EBH's will be and it really is a matter of Sky letting him of the leash or not dying away after leading out Cav.

Edit: On second thoughts if he leads out Cav I cant see him getting top10 consistently on the flat stages

Edit2: If you are including stage7 then I doubt it is possible at all, unless maybe a Wiggins/Cadel who is paying extra vigilance and staying near the front towards the ends of sprints and even then it is unlikely

 

[will10]

Thor got close last year.

8/07/2011 GT1s leader Tour de France, Stage 7 : Le Mans - Châteauroux 20
8/07/2011 GT1s 7 Tour de France, Stage 7 : Le Mans - Châteauroux 5
7/07/2011 GT1s leader Tour de France, Stage 6 : Dinan - Lisieux 20
7/07/2011 GT1s 3 Tour de France, Stage 6 : Dinan - Lisieux 35
6/07/2011 GT1s leader Tour de France, Stage 5 : Carhaix - Cap Fréhel 20
6/07/2011 GT1s 10 Tour de France, Stage 5 : Carhaix - Cap Fréhel 1
5/07/2011 GT1s leader Tour de France, Stage 4 : Lorient - Mûr-de-Bretagne 20
5/07/2011 GT1s 5 Tour de France, Stage 4 : Lorient - Mûr-de-Bretagne 15
4/07/2011 GT1s leader Tour de France, Stage 3 : Olonne sur Mer - Redon 20
4/07/2011 GT1s 6 Tour de France, Stage 3 : Olonne sur Mer - Redon 10
3/07/2011 GT1s leader Tour de France, Stage 2 : Les Essarts - Les Essarts T.T.T. 20
3/07/2011 GT1s 1 Tour de France, Stage 2 : Les Essarts - Les Essarts T.T.T. 20
2/07/2011 GT1s 3 Tour de France, Stage 1 : Passage du Gois - Les Herbiers/Mont des Alouettes 35

 

[Gubby Allen]

Thor got close last year.

That's why I was asking, as I'm picking one of the fantasy teams and had Hushovd, based on him being fit & well and having won prologues & done it in the past. I've got EBH already - you can transfer but I was after someone who could compete on all the first seven stages (prologue and 1-6).

I wasn't sure what Sagan or to a lesser extent Rojas' or Degenkolb if he goes, prologue would be like. I can't imagine there is anyone else who fits, LL Sanchez could figure in the Prologue, 1 & 3 but no more than 1 sprint stage at best.

 

[Froome19]

That's why I was asking, as I'm picking one of the fantasy teams and had Hushovd, based on him being fit & well and having won prologues & done it in the past. I've got EBH already - you can transfer but I was after someone who could compete on all the first seven stages (prologue and 1-6).

I wasn't sure what Sagan or to a lesser extent Rojas' or Degenkolb if he goes, prologue would be like. I can't imagine there is anyone else who fits, LL Sanchez could figure in the Prologue, 1 & 3 but no more than 1 sprint stage at best.

EBH will in all likelihood not feauture on the majority of those stages due to leading out Cav.
A much safer pick would be Sagan.
Rojas as well is not a bad prologueist but nothing special yet he would be a clever choice as he is very consistent and can climb well.
Degenkolb is a bit young and may not have guaranteed consistenct + this is his first GT and I am unsure over his prologue ability.

 

[taiwan]

That's why I was asking, as I'm picking one of the fantasy teams and had Hushovd, based on him being fit & well and having won prologues & done it in the past. I've got EBH already - you can transfer but I was after someone who could compete on all the first seven stages (prologue and 1-6).

I wasn't sure what Sagan or to a lesser extent Rojas' or Degenkolb if he goes, prologue would be like. I can't imagine there is anyone else who fits, LL Sanchez could figure in the Prologue, 1 & 3 but no more than 1 sprint stage at best.

Sagan will be doing top 5s in sprints, might top ten in the prologue and could win mid mountain stages if there's no break.

i haven't looked at the parcours either though.

 

[El Pistolero]

Lol, don't think Sagan will get close to a top 10 in the prologue.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Lol, don't think Sagan will get close to a top 10 in the prologue.

Sure?
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=16976
1. BOOM Lars RAB 10'56" 40
2. VOIGT Jens SAX 03" 25
3. LEIPHEIMER Levi RSH 06" 15
4. CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 06" 10
5. SAGAN Peter LIQ 10" 5
6. TONDO VOLPINI Xavier CTT 10" 3
7. MILLAR David GRM 11" 2
8. SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon GCE 12" 1
9. KREUZIGER Roman LIQ 13" 0
10. SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel EUS 15" 0

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=17267
1. PINOTTI Marco THR 05'17" 40
2. SAGAN Peter LIQ 01" 25
3. ROY Jérémy FDJ 04" 15
4. ROGERS Michael THR 04" 10
5. FLENS Rick RAB 05" 5
6. MOREAU Christophe GCE 06" 3
7. HENDERSON Gregory SKY 06" 2
8. KREUZIGER Roman LIQ 07" 1
9. PLAZA MOLINA Ruben GCE 07" 0
10. ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar RSH 07" 0

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=17664
1. CANCELLARA Fabian SAX 10'21" 40
2. KREUZIGER Roman LIQ 01" 25
3. MARTIN Tony THR 03" 15
4. SAGAN Peter LIQ 03" 10
5. DEVENYNS Dries QST 10" 5
6. LARSSON Gustav Erik SAX 11" 3
7. LÖFKVIST Thomas SKY 12" 2
8. QUINZIATO Manuel LIQ 13" 1
9. GERRANS Simon SKY 13" 0
10. FUGLSANG Jakob SAX 13" 0

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20558
1. CANCELLARA Fabian LEO 09'41" 40
2. VAN GARDEREN Tejay THR 09" 25
3. SAGAN Peter LIQ 17" 15
4. LARSSON Gustav Erik SBS 17" 10
5. KLÖDEN Andreas RSH 18" 5
6. DANIELSON Tom GRM 20" 3
7. VELITS Peter THR 21" 2
8. MOLLEMA Bauke RAB 22" 1
9. LEIPHEIMER Levi RSH 22" 0
10. GERDEMANN Linus LEO 22" 0

I have no idea why you are so certain Sagan 'won't come close to top 10 in the TDF prologue'. Considering these results

 

[El Pistolero]

Sure?
http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=16976
1. BOOM Lars RAB 10'56" 40
2. VOIGT Jens SAX 03" 25
3. LEIPHEIMER Levi RSH 06" 15
4. CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 06" 10
5. SAGAN Peter LIQ 10" 5
6. TONDO VOLPINI Xavier CTT 10" 3
7. MILLAR David GRM 11" 2
8. SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon GCE 12" 1
9. KREUZIGER Roman LIQ 13" 0
10. SANCHEZ GONZALEZ Samuel EUS 15" 0

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=17267
1. PINOTTI Marco THR 05'17" 40
2. SAGAN Peter LIQ 01" 25
3. ROY Jérémy FDJ 04" 15
4. ROGERS Michael THR 04" 10
5. FLENS Rick RAB 05" 5
6. MOREAU Christophe GCE 06" 3
7. HENDERSON Gregory SKY 06" 2
8. KREUZIGER Roman LIQ 07" 1
9. PLAZA MOLINA Ruben GCE 07" 0
10. ZUBELDIA AGIRRE Haimar RSH 07" 0

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=17664
1. CANCELLARA Fabian SAX 10'21" 40
2. KREUZIGER Roman LIQ 01" 25
3. MARTIN Tony THR 03" 15
4. SAGAN Peter LIQ 03" 10
5. DEVENYNS Dries QST 10" 5
6. LARSSON Gustav Erik SAX 11" 3
7. LÖFKVIST Thomas SKY 12" 2
8. QUINZIATO Manuel LIQ 13" 1
9. GERRANS Simon SKY 13" 0
10. FUGLSANG Jakob SAX 13" 0

http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=20558
1. CANCELLARA Fabian LEO 09'41" 40
2. VAN GARDEREN Tejay THR 09" 25
3. SAGAN Peter LIQ 17" 15
4. LARSSON Gustav Erik SBS 17" 10
5. KLÖDEN Andreas RSH 18" 5
6. DANIELSON Tom GRM 20" 3
7. VELITS Peter THR 21" 2
8. MOLLEMA Bauke RAB 22" 1
9. LEIPHEIMER Levi RSH 22" 0
10. GERDEMANN Linus LEO 22" 0

I have no idea why you are so certain Sagan 'won't come close to top 10 in the TDF prologue'. Considering these results

My bad, I thought the prologue was longer than it actually is. His time trial position is far from perfect, so he struggles in longer time trials. Thought it was 15km instead of the 6km. It's basically the same prologue they used in 2004 I see now, with a minor adjustment. ASO being creative as usual.

 

[Dedelou]

My bad, I thought the prologue was longer than it actually is. His time trial position is far from perfect, so he struggles in longer time trials. Thought it was 15km instead of the 6km. It's basically the same prologue they used in 2004 I see now, with a minor adjustment. ASO being creative as usual.

I do believe a prologue has to be under a certain low distance or else it is called an ITT 1 st stage. Can somebody tell us what is that maximum distance?

 

[Ferminal]

Galic Ho was arguing that riders finishing in the same group should not get the same time.

It's a reasonable concept, but not when there's a group of 70 coming over five wide as was the case on Stage 1.

 

[The Hitch]

I do believe a prologue has to be under a certain low distance or else it is called an ITT 1 st stage. Can somebody tell us what is that maximum distance?

I believe it is 8km.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

But there have been prologues over 8km, so...

Back to the OP: After moving across the country, I can finally start posting again after an absence. I voted for Cadel, and would be okay if he won. Brad has a chance, and though I'm not a fan, it would be cool to see a British champion, finally.

 

[The Hitch]

But there have been prologues over 8km, so...

.

Then it is not a prologue but a simple itt.