Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Ruby United]

But have you ever seen VDB put in an attack that gained him time on other contenders? I struggle to think of one. Mende, maybe.

Agreed.

That's why VDB is a contender for 5-10th place in my opinion.

He doesn't lose alot of time on the mountains but he can't gain any.

 

[El Pistolero]

I think VDB2 could surprise quite a few people here.

 

[Panda Claws]

I agree I think he has improved a lot, both in TT and climbing.

 

[The Hitch]

It wont really be a surprise to see a rider who does less season round than andy schleck, manage to get on form for 1 race.

 

[El Pistolero]

It wont really be a surprise to see a rider who does less season round than andy schleck, manage to get on form for 1 race.

He was third at Catalunya, did well in Algarve and was doing good in Pais Vasco before the final time trial. And I have no doubt he'll be good at this Dauphiné as well.

Did more than Andy this season.

 

[Panda Claws]

Yeah, but VDB2 is training constantly, unlike Schleck.

And let us not go too far with the hyperbole.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=599&year=2012&all=1&current=0

That is a lot better than both Schlecks combined.

 

[The Hitch]

he was the 2nd best placed gc rider before his crash in 2011. he will do well this year

lol wut

 

[Zam_Olyas]

what would be "do well" for jvdb2 be ..top 7?

 

[Panda Claws]

lol wut

Yeah, I removed that within the minute I posted it.

 

[Walkman]

I am an old timer like Alpe and well remember those days! But I also don't want a Tour to be decided by TTs. I have no real reason for it and I know that TTs are as much a part of the game as climbing skills, but to me a Tour should always be decided on the road, in the mountains, on the hills, in attacks and breakaways, etc. I dread a return to the days when an Indurain or an Armstrong would take a stranglehold on the race in the TTT and the first long ITT and then ride defensively (yes I'm generalizing) through the mountains, and then solidify the win in the final ITT. Which is all to say that, to me, even 100km of TT is way too much.

I see and I respect your opinion but I kind of like the idea of a Tour winner who is not only a good climber but also a good time trialist. But I do agree with you on the TTT:s. They have no plance in an grand tour in my opinion, it's the riders strenght that should be rewarded, not the strenght of the team.

How did you like the 2007 Tour route? More than 100 km of TT but still won by the climbers. I think that was a great route but it had been almost perfect if they had thrown in some hilly stages!

 

[theyoungest]

Yeah, but VDB2 is training constantly, unlike Schleck.

And let us not go too far with the hyperbole.

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=599&year=2012&all=1&current=0

That is a lot better than both Schlecks combined.

Okay in the Algarve, and a lucky 3d in Catalunya. Not really more impressive than the usual Andy Schleck season.

 

[VeloCity]

I see and I respect your opinion but I kind of like the idea of a Tour winner who is not only a good climber but also a good time trialist. But I do agree with you on the TTT:s. They have no plance in an grand tour in my opinion, it's the riders strenght that should be rewarded, not the strenght of the team.

How did you like the 2007 Tour route? More than 100 km of TT but still won by the climbers. I think that was a great route but it had been almost perfect if they had thrown in some hilly stages!

Oh it's just me, I just don't like TTs in GTs very much. I understand that the Tour is a test of the best all-rounder, but I'd rather watch mountain battles than individual tests against the clock. And while it might be sacrilege for a cycling fan to say so, I think they're boring

 

[The Hitch]

But I do agree with you on the TTT:s. They have no plance in an grand tour in my opinion, it's the riders strenght that should be rewarded, not the strenght of the team.

Hear hear.

Oh it's just me, I just don't like TTs in GTs very much. I understand that the Tour is a test of the best all-rounder, but I'd rather watch mountain battles than individual tests against the clock. And while it might be sacrilege for a cycling fan to say so, I think they're boring

The idea is that tts improve the mountain stages by forcing someone like Andy Schleck to try and crack opponents in the mountains, rather than follow wheels on 4 out of 5 mtfs and then proudly declare himself the only person who makes the race interesting.

 

[VeloCity]

The idea is that tts improve the mountain stages by forcing someone like Andy Schleck to try and crack opponents in the mountains, rather than follow wheels on 4 out of 5 mtfs and then proudly declare himself the only person who makes the race interesting.

But one could argue that they've often had the opposite effect: Indurain and Armstrong for eg often had no incentive to attack in the mountains because they gained so much time in the TTT and/or first ITT, so they just had to ride defensively to protect their gains or to limit their losses, which they knew they'd more than make up for in the final ITT. I'm generalizing quite a bit of course, but wouldn't racing back in the time of Indurain and Armstrong have been more interesting if they too had to go on the attack in the mountains rather than just "winning" the Tour via the TTs? Evans, too, for that matter. Contador's a different story, of course, he just attacks when and where he feels like it.

But having said all that, I understand why there are TTs and I understand why there always will be, I just find them to be -for lack of a better description - disruptive to the flow of the GC and the GT as a whole. I also know that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but there it is

 

[The Hitch]

But one could argue that they've often had the opposite effect: Indurain and Armstrong for eg often had no incentive to attack in the mountains because they gained so much time in the TTT and/or first ITT, so they just had to ride defensively to protect their gains or to limit their losses, which they knew they'd more than make up for in the final ITT. I'm generalizing quite a bit of course, but wouldn't racing back in the time of Indurain and Armstrong have been more interesting if they too had to go on the attack in the mountains rather than just "winning" the Tour via the TTs? Evans, too, for that matter. Contador's a different story, of course, he just attacks when and where he feels like it.

But having said all that, I understand why there are TTs and I understand why there always will be, I just find them to be -for lack of a better description - disruptive to the flow of the GC and the GT as a whole. I also know that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but there it is

Yeah, you make a good point.

I would actually add Contador 2010 to that list as he followed Schleck throughout the Pyranees, in the belief that he would take all the time he needed in the tt.

I suppose the hope is that if epo (which allegedly worked better on big riders like Indurain, Ullrich, Lance) is having less of an impact, then with long tts, the guys built for climbing can take time in the mountains, and they will find it difficult to keep up with long flat tts.

Even Contador who is arguably the best gt tter from among the contenders (apart from Wiggins) seems to suffer more as the tts get longer and flatter.

Oh and tts should replace sprint stages or transition stages not mountain stages of course, so we wouldnt really lose out on mountain fun.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

If the days were like that of Indurain or Armstrong, where one guy wins the GT in the TT's, then yes, let's keep the cumulative TT distance lower. I think part of the issue is that right now do we really know that the Tour would be decided exclusively between Evans and Wiggins if there were 200km TT distance?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Could this be perceived as a slight dig at JVdB? Wasn't there a bit of conflict between them at Lotto in Evans' years there? At the same time he is giving him credit by naming him as one of his threats for the overall.

Edit: My bad. He doesn't actually name him as threat for the overall just as one of the contenders. Only Wiggins and Andy are named.

Yeah, the conflict was that JvdB was 2nd leader behind Evans with a free role within the team after his 6th place in the Giro the year before. But in the long TTT JvdB fell after a couple of km's, but the team decided not to wait for him, and defend Evans' spot among the GC contenders. JvdB finished minutes later, basically having blown his chances for a GC. But when the mountains came, Evans cracked like an old man's knuckles, and JvdB still hung onto a spot in the top 20. He tried to move up in the GC still (he was better placed than Evans at this point), went in breaks etc. Evans didn't like it, as he always believed the sun revolved around his ***, and was angry with JvdB and even more with the OPL DS who during the later stages flat out said JvdB could dethrone Evans for future GT's regarding team hirarchy. Even though his GC was down the drain, he figured JvdB should forsake all his chances and still work for him (Evans). So basically the conflict was Evans being Evans.

 

[Ferminal]

Individual timing in road races is a concept that completely disregards the fundamental dynamics of road racing (apart from tt's).

Enforcing true gaps on selective uphill finishes doesn't remove drafting or collusion.

 

[markjohnconley]

Yeah, the conflict was that JvdB was 2nd leader behind Evans with a free role within the team after his 6th place in the Giro the year before. But in the long TTT JvdB fell after a couple of km's, but the team decided not to wait for him, and defend Evans' spot among the GC contenders. JvdB finished minutes later, basically having blown his chances for a GC. But when the mountains came, Evans cracked like an old man's knuckles, and JvdB still hung onto a spot in the top 20. He tried to move up in the GC still (he was better placed than Evans at this point), went in breaks etc. Evans didn't like it, as he always believed the sun revolved around his ***, and was angry with JvdB and even more with the OPL DS who during the later stages flat out said JvdB could dethrone Evans for future GT's regarding team hirarchy. Even though his GC was down the drain, he figured JvdB should forsake all his chances and still work for him (Evans). So basically the conflict was Evans being Evans.

And you are privy to all this, because?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

And you are privy to all this, because?

Privy? This is no insider info, lol. I just described what happened in the 2009 TDF. If you watched (and cared) you would have known half my post. The latter part of my post is based on TV interviews with Evans, Marc Sergeant and Marc Coucke.

 

[The Hitch]

Have Evans wait for JVDB, or have the team push on for Evans.

That must have been the easiest decision in the history of mankind.

 

[UlleGigo]

Only an insider could know that JVDB fell off in the time trial. And that Cadel is 'a bit precious'. Who do you work for? I demand to know.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Have Evans wait for JVDB, or have the team push on for Evans.

That must have been the easiest decision in the history of mankind.

What are you talking about. Did you not read my post? This was not the reason of the conflict, i was creating context. Get some glasses. JvdB had no problems with Evans because the team rode on, it was the other way around when Evans cracked. Because Evans started criticizing JvdB, the latter showed disappointment because he had always seen Evans as an example.

Only an insider could know that JVDB fell off in the time trial. And that Cadel is 'a bit precious'. Who do you work for? I demand to know.

Sorry... lives are at stake...

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I agree I think he has improved a lot, both in TT and climbing.

Based on what though? I really haven't seen any dramatic improvement in the guy since his 2010 tour. I could be wrong, but I just done see him as anything but an outside threat.

 

[The Hitch]

What are you talking about. Did you not read my post? This was not the reason of the conflict, i was creating context. Get some glasses.

No i did not read your post and it doesn't really matter whether i did nor not.

I merely saw it written somewhere that a team once had to decide whether to go with Evans or have him wait for a 2nd tier gc rider, and decided to comment that this must have been a very easy decision.

I don't really care what the rest of your post was about, it makes no difference to my comment.