Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Froome19]

Well, since he didn't get caught, despite Wiggins best efforts, that is clearly not a concern. What we've seen this year, so far, at least, is a carbon copy of last year. As for the rest, July will tell.

No I disagree, Wiggins has been much stronger this year than last.
His has won every (4) proper ITT he has raced in something which he was nowhere near doing last year and he won PN where he could only come 3rd last year and Romandie.
Also last year he lost to Martin in the dauphine ITT whilst this year he won. Wiggins is certainly stronger this year than last.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Well, since he didn't get caught, despite Wiggins best efforts, that is clearly not a concern. What we've seen this year, so far, at least, is a carbon copy of last year. As for the rest, July will tell.

Not quite.

Even looking just at the TT, people seem to be using Tony recovering from injury as a benchmark to show Cadel is exactly where he was, and ignoring the fact Wiggins has jumped 45 seconds forwards relative to Tony on a course which should suit Tony well.


I would suggest this probably has more to do with the fact Tony is clearly not as good as last year at the moment, so holding the same gap to him for Cadel does not imply he's in the same space.

And equally, I don't subscribe to the view that because Cadel has won the Tour in 1 attempt out of 7, matching the results from that year proves he's in the same shape (and will continue to progress in the same way) rather than one of the other years. Bike racing, and Cadel, is far too unpredictable for that.

 

[Maxiton]

You guys are making me laugh. I'm mostly laughing because Evans is probably doomed, lol, but we'll see.

 

[dlwssonic]

No I disagree, Wiggins has been much stronger this year than last.
His has won every (4) proper ITT he has raced in something which he was nowhere near doing last year and he won PN where he could only come 3rd last year and Romandie.
Also last year he lost to Martin in the dauphine ITT whilst this year he won. Wiggins is certainly stronger this year than last.

Martin is nowhere where he was last year. He just came back from injury.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Martin is nowhere where he was last year. He just came back from injury.

Ok, lets try some elementary logic.


Martin 2011 > Martin 2012

Martin 2011 : Evans 2011 = Martin 2012 : Evans 2012

Therefore...

Evans 2011 > Evans 2012

 

[dlwssonic]

Ok, lets try some elementary logic.


Martin 2011 > Martin 2012

Martin 2011 : Evans 2011 = Martin 2012 : Evans 2012

Therefore...

Evans 2011 > Evans 2012

No no no.
You can't say that just because the time loss between the two timetrials is similiar.
Last years course was way more hilly and suited evans much more.
Plus it was shorter so the gaps were smaller too.
This years course suited martin more.

 

[Winterfold]

Well, since he didn't get caught, despite Wiggins best efforts, that is clearly not a concern.

Well done for ignoring this bit of my post:

there is no way you let a major opponent even get you in their sites if there is anything you can do to avoid it.



Maybe it was the bad spelling of sights?

Evans will not have liked what happened yesterday, Wiggo was close to the TT equivalent of pulling his shorts down.

I agree with this though:

As for the rest, July will tell.

 

[Winterfold]

This thread really needs some power data, where is le breton when you need him?

(although I still dwlsonic will still find a way to post-rationalise it )

 

[Morbius]

. This years course suited martin more.

So is this right?
Martin 2011 > Martin 2012
Martin 2011 : Evans 2011 > Martin 2012 : Evans 2012

Therefore...

Evans 2011 >> Evans 2012

 

[dlwssonic]

This thread really needs some power data, where is le breton when you need him?

(although I still dwlsonic will still find a way to post-rationalise it )

That's because some of you guys are acting as if the tour is already decided thanks to a TT a month before the real action starts at le tour.
When evans looked strong on stage 1, I said he was on track for le tour. Not like he looks awesome and is gonna own everybody and is the favourite for le tour.
Evans won't lose that much time in a TT in july, especially when they come in the second or third week.
Evans might be able to even gain time if you look at his TT last year during the 3rd week.

 

[goggalor]

So is this right?
Martin 2011 > Martin 2012
Martin 2011 : Evans 2011 > Martin 2012 : Evans 2012

Therefore...

Evans 2011 >> Evans 2012

Let me try: In 2011, Evans was 1.20 back on a hilly 42.5 km course. This year he's 1.09 back on a flat 53.5 km course. Since Martin isn't as good as in 2011 I'd say Cadel is at around the same level. It doesn't matter exactly where he is, the main point is he is not in form and we know can improve significantly before the Tour. Wiggins is more unsure, since we never got to see what he was good for last year before he crashed out.

 

[Angliru]

man you guys go on.

Had a thought: I reckon Evans was toying with Wiggo yesterday. Close to the same time in the first spilt. Then loses over a minute at the next check. But then keeps him at almost the same distance for the remainder of the stage.

Do they call this shadow boxing?

In case you aren't joking: I can't imagine there's anything to be gained in that tactic other than giving Wiggins a sense of superiority and based on his increasing by the day smugness (Just my own observation) and the implied inevitable nature of his coming Tour win, I can't see him getting any more confident. I think that he's probably feeling that he will have a resounding Tour win on par with the best of Indurain. Blowing all the contenders out of the water in the long TT by minutes and defending strongly in the mountains.
Ideally of course that his what he's hoping for.

 

[Angliru]

I haven't followed the racing as closely this year as I'd have liked, but from what I've seen Wiggins has been all business all year; and especially now as the Tour approaches. There can be no question that Wiggins shows the single-minded determination and consistent dedication needed to win. I think, also, that he is very aware of his role as some sort of singular, sporting representative of Britannia, and this too propels him forward.

Wiggins has had his sights set on this year and on this Tour since breaking his collarbone in last year's Tour. No doubt he sees time, and Froome, and other things breathing down his neck, and 2012 as his break it or breakout year.

If Bradley Wiggins is the unstoppable force, Cadel Evans is immovable in his desire to defend his jersey, so dearly achieved. After showing monumental promise, and several abortive approaches over several years, he finally has victory in Le Grande Boucle dialed in definitively. And his team, for all its disappointing problems and results this year, will still provide in the end all the support Evans needs to defend the maillot jaune.

If this year's Tour is even close to last year's, it should be pretty exciting. Some of you know I'm an Evans fan, but if Wiggins can take it he'll be, in all likelihood, a deserving victor. I might say that grudgingly, but I do say it. Even in the absence of Contador, this is going to be a great race.

Excellent post. Even with my cynical post regarding Wiggins I can see that he's has an impressive lazer focus in his prep for launching his effort to win the Tour. I can forsee a great battle on the horizon and even more so if certain riders (Menchov, Andy Schleck, Nibali) arrive in ideal form and aggressive tactics in their plans.

 

[eljimberino]

Cool thing is you've got two mountain stages right after the 1st ITT. Any time lost to TT's 'can' be taken back the next day by climbers.

Fun to watch.

 

[eljimberino]

Cool thing is you've got two mountain stages right after the 1st ITT. Any time lost to TT's 'can' be taken back the next day by climbers.

Fun to watch.

 

[Netserk]

I truly don't know this year, but for 2013, 2014 and 2015 it only can and will be Alberto 'the chosen one' Contador

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

So, what did we learn today?

Since there are I think 2 or 3 stages ending after a (seemingly) serious descent in the TDF, if Samu, Nibali and Evans go attack in the descent, Wiggo has a problem.

Though we'll learn more about how much of a problem descending is (or isn't?) for Wiggo tomorrow.

 

[Froome19]

So, what did we learn today?

Since there are I think 2 or 3 stages ending after a (seemingly) serious descent in the TDF, if Samu, Nibali and Evans go attack in the descent, Wiggo has a problem.

Though we'll learn more about how much of a problem descending is (or isn't?) for Wiggo tomorrow.

Wiggins was very good on the descents today: He in fact was leading the bunch and nearly caught the Kash group on one of the descents, so so far so good for Wiggins in the descending category.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Wiggins was very good on the descents today: He in fact was leading the bunch and nearly caught the Kash group on one of the descents, so so far so good for Wiggins in the descending category.

If he's very good at descending, why did he lose a minute to his main rival in this stage race in a descent?

But as I said; we'll know more tomorrow

 

[Froome19]

If he's very good at descending, why did he lose a minute to his main rival in this stage race in a descent?

But as I said; we'll know more tomorrow

Because they attacked and then Wiggins waited and brought them back...

Or are you asking why Wiggins didnt go with their attack?.
Because it wasnt like he actually lost any time

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Because they attacked and then Wiggins waited and brought them back...

Or are you asking why Wiggins didnt go with their attack?.
Because it wasnt like he actually lost any time

Would've been a lot easier if he showed his great descending skill's on the first descent, but for some reason he purposely choose to descend like a brick giving Nibali and Evans a minute? Only to show his awesome descending skill's in the next descent

 

[Froome19]

Would've been a lot easier if he showed his great descending skill's on the first descent, but for some reason he purposely choose to descend like a brick giving Nibali and Evans a minute? Only to show his awesome descending skill's in the next descent

Since when is descending with the peloton, descending like a brick?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I was more amused to watch the best BMC domestiques pulling major pain faces whilst giving up 45 seconds in no time at all.

Great actors, they can't be that weak surely?

 

[El Pistolero]

I was more amused to watch the best BMC domestiques pulling major pain faces whilst giving up 45 seconds in no time at all.

Great actors, they can't be that weak surely?

Not as weak as Sky boys at Paris-Roubaix

 

[Ferminal]

I was more amused to watch the best BMC domestiques pulling major pain faces whilst giving up 45 seconds in no time at all.

Great actors, they can't be that weak surely?

BMC aren't a very good stage race team, Evans will just free-ride on Sky anyway.