Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Afrank]

Cav will leave about stage 14 or 15. I am sure of this. What I see is also CAv not having a proper train at all. Instead Eisel/EBH bringing him up to front with 1km to go and Cav picking the best wheel to follow.

If he is in green or still has a good chance of taking green I doubt he will leave. And he is good enough that he can complete a tour with few mountains, and still come to the olympics in good form.

Agree with you on his leadout, he's not going to have the same train he had with HTC.

 

[hughmoore]

Im expecting a GreenEdge Train to bring home Goss, although its always going to be very difficult to beat Cav regardless.

Given the effort Cav put into the GIRO to finish, cant see him pulling out of the Tour, especially if Wiggans is in contention.



Regards

Hugh

 

[greenedge]

I also agree that there is a question mark over Cadels motivation, and his team for that matter. I'm sure he'll go well, but sustaining a pursuit like he did of Andy up the Galibier (was it?) , which may be a break from Sky in 2012,perhaps may be harder to recreate now he has won it, we'll see.

I am sure Sky will send no riders on the attack other than EBH.

 

[greenedge]

I wish I'd voted for Samu.............................

Shame on you for voting for Wiggins.

 

[greenedge]

There can't be "no way" in such matters. Nibali beat Evans in the 09 Tour and Giro. It is already a powerful argument. All we can say for sure is Evans in the 2011 Tour was a better climber than Nibali in any his race. But this fact itself guarantees nothing.

I will admit Nibali climbed better than Evans on some occasions in the Giro.

In 2010 TDF, Evans was injured. I am pretty sure he would not have been in 1st place then ended up coming 26th without... crashing.

The point at the end where you say in 2011 TDF Evans was a better climber than Nibali is true.

 

[greenedge]

Before Contador was banned, everyone was betting on a Contador vs Evans scenario. Now that Contador is no longer in the picture, and Evans hasn't shown good form, Wiggins becomes the logical choice. But to me, it's down to Menchov and Wiggins and since Menchov is a bit more agressive in the mountains, I think he'll beat Wiggins by less than a minute overall.

Evans is still the logical choice if only based on winning last years TDF. Therefore even with Wiggins going well most people say it is between him and Cadel.

 

[greenedge]

Cadel Evans, who you probably think sucks at TTing, also did great in that TT

Injureeed.

 

[greenedge]

In that case, I'll be expecting on the podium (and in no particular order) Wiggins, Evans and Schleck ...
The Trifecta from Hell
I forgot to add, Cavendish will win the points jersey ...
Oh ... Unholy Tetrarchy!!!

Shleck has been on the podiums of GT's for every year since 2007- so it's been bad every single year in that case

Cav might not, considering the Olympics/ how divided his team will be.

 

[JA.Tri]

Evans. However there are many imponderables as alluded to previously. With the absence of AC, the (my) crystal ball has got cloudy...not just on the number/names of contenders but also on the manner in which stages are raced. At least we will have a better idea on form after Dauphine.

Will:
there be long distance attacks on the MTF
the climbers seek to obtain and hold the MJ and hope to fend off the TTers
there be significant crashes wiping out contenders/destroying their chances
Wiggo have peaked too early
Sky get the MJ early on and defend
Cadel/contenders be anywhere near his/their peak
the contenders be strong come the last week
the TTers have enough in the tank to do a good final TT (see first point)?

Seems more open Tour than usual. Whereas in previous years contenders may seek to release the MJ to a "non-contender", that strategy is fraught with danger this year. I recon there are so many teams/riders with a significant possibility of contending that "releasing" MJ, might mean saying a final goodbye. Having said that few teams appear to have the strength to retain MJ for the journey...

 

[Swede1]

I'm still sticking with menchov being able to pull this one out. Obviously Evans is probably the favorite with wiggins close behind. I think menchov can really do something this tour though. schleck will probably still manage to get onto the podium though as he will most likely be the strongest climber in the race. I'm still wondering how wiggins has not really peaked this season his whole season seems to be one big peak of form. It makes me wonder if he will be able to hold onto his form throughout the tour or if he will be worn out.

 

[Eric8-A]

We'll see how Wiggo rides during the Dauphine.

 

[airstream]

I think if Andy rides both long TT's on the level of 2009 and 2010 Tours, the overall victory can be guaranteed even before Peyragudes. To gain 30 sec on Planche-des-Belles-Filles + 2 minutes on Toussuire + 40 sec on Peyresourde would be enough for the win. Though if health allows, it would be good to commit a control attack on Peyragudes as well.

 

[Ferminal]

Well, the final TT is after Peyragudes.

 

[airstream]

Well, the final TT is after Peyragudes.

I see. But a 2 minute gap over the 2nd would me more than sufficient to keep yellow because almost certainly Wiggins won't be this 2nd. All Andy needs is to show his former TT skills

 

[LaFlorecita]

I think if Andy rides both long TT's on the level of 2009 and 2010 Tours, the overall victory can be guaranteed even before Peyragudes. To gain 30 sec on Planche-des-Belles-Filles + 2 minutes on Toussuire + 40 sec on Peyresourde would be enough for the win. Though if health allows, it would be good to commit a control attack on Peyragudes as well.

Lol 2 minutes on Toussuire..

Also were his tts in 2009 and 2010 really that good? In 2009 he lost 1.45 to Alberto over 40.5km, in 2010 he lost 31 seconds to Alberto over 52km, and Alberto rode perhaps the worst tt of his life.

Also keep in mind Evans and Wiggins are much better time trialists than Alberto and will put much more time in Andy.

 

[airstream]

By saying so, you are looking into perfect Evans and perfect Wiggins. Evans can be different and that's defiantly wrong to make a conclusion regarding his TT ability based on Grenoble stage. I'm absolutely certain it's impossible to ride both TTs like a Grenoble one. Such days (Evans last year and Contador in TT in 2009] often happen once in a lifetime. A time trial in penultimate day is a special story. Wiggins will ride weaker than many people think.

Yeah, 2 minutes. RSNT will explode the peloton on Glandon. Sky will crumble to pieces. Andy will ride tha last 10k in splendid isolation.

 

[Ferminal]

I see. But a 2 minute gap over the 2nd would me more than sufficient to keep yellow because almost certainly Wiggins won't be this 2nd. All Andy needs is to show his former TT skills

It's a 53.5km flat TT, even at his absolute best he could still lose two minutes to Wiggins/Evans/Menchov. Then there's the 20" in the prologue and 1'30" in the early TT.

Aspin/Peyresourde on 16 aren't really hard enough to get away and stay away from the Sky train. Same for Glandon/Croix de Fer/Mollard on 11 (no, he can't take 2' on La Toussuire alone).

Bales/Peyresourde/Peyragudes is actually the best opportunity for big time. Bales is hard enough that they just may be break everyone down, and then Andy would launch himself on Peyresourde.

By saying so, you are looking into perfect Evans and perfect Wiggins. Evans can be different and that's defiantly wrong to make a conclusion regarding his TT ability based on Grenoble stage. I'm absolutely certain it's impossible to ride both TTs like a Grenoble one. Such days (Evans last year and Contador in TT in 2009] often happen once in a lifetime. A time trial in penultimate day is a special story. Wiggins will ride weaker than many people think.

Evans in 2007.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think if Andy rides both long TT's on the level of 2009 and 2010 Tours, the overall victory can be guaranteed even before Peyragudes. To gain 30 sec on Planche-des-Belles-Filles + 2 minutes on Toussuire + 40 sec on Peyresourde would be enough for the win. Though if health allows, it would be good to commit a control attack on Peyragudes as well.

lol please.

First, no way Andy will be able to gain this much time. Second, even if he was, he wouldn't.

Well, enough Andy bashing for now. I'm actually quite eager to follow him this Tour as we all know that he has to attack over and over again. This is his opportunity to regain some respect from a lot of spectators. But there is also the risk that he loses the last bit of respect he still has got.

 

[theyoungest]

Injureeed.

So was Gesink, for most of the Tour. I don't think we saw him at his best there.

I think if Andy rides both long TT's on the level of 2009 and 2010 Tours, the overall victory can be guaranteed even before Peyragudes. To gain 30 sec on Planche-des-Belles-Filles + 2 minutes on Toussuire + 40 sec on Peyresourde would be enough for the win. Though if health allows, it would be good to commit a control attack on Peyragudes as well.

The first long TT is a problem, he has to be afraid of getting slaughtered there. The second one is more down to recovery, and that's his strong suit.

 

[burning]

If Andy rides final TT with a position like this, he would lose huge time on that flat TT, 53,5km is really long to decide a lot of stuff

 

[theyoungest]

If Andy rides final TT with a position like this, he would lose huge time on that flat TT, 53,5km is really long to decide a lot of stuff

That picture is such nonsense, it's the front surface that counts. Look at Cadel Evans:

 

[burning]

That picture is such nonsense, it's the front surface that counts. Look at Cadel Evans:

His back is quite parallel to road compared to Andy, Andy's back has an angle to road and this was his only TT in this year I guess?

 

[greenedge]

So was Gesink, for most of the Tour. I don't think we saw him at his best there.

Yeah but he still came 6th ( compared to 26th ).

That bike almost looks too small for Evans.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

It's a 53.5km flat TT, even at his absolute best he could still lose two minutes to Wiggins/Evans/Menchov. Then there's the 20" in the prologue and 1'30" in the early TT.

Aspin/Peyresourde on 16 aren't really hard enough to get away and stay away from the Sky train. Same for Glandon/Croix de Fer/Mollard on 11 (no, he can't take 2' on La Toussuire alone).

Bales/Peyresourde/Peyragudes is actually the best opportunity for big time. Bales is hard enough that they just may be break everyone down, and then Andy would launch himself on Peyresourde.

I think Andy will lose much more than 20 seconds to Wiggins and Evans in the prologue. I assume that was the best case scenario, but even then you're awfully optimistic about Andy's chances, IMO.

 

[roundabout]

lol please.

First, no way Andy will be able to gain this much time. Second, even if he was, he wouldn't.

Well, enough Andy bashing for now. I'm actually quite eager to follow him this Tour as we all know that he has to attack over and over again. This is his opportunity to regain some respect from a lot of spectators. But there is also the risk that he loses the last bit of respect he still has got.

You'd imagine that after all he *****footing around in the last Giro people would have new respect for his last year's attack. But I guess that would be expecting too much.