Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[DenisMenchov]

Together with Cobo, Froome, Westra, Hesjedal, and De Gendt

De Gendt is 25 years old, Cobo won a stage in 2008 Tour, Froome is also relatively young... Hesjedal and Westra are surprises

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

De Gendt is 25 years old, Cobo won a stage in 2008 Tour, Froome is also relatively young... Hesjedal and Westra are surprises

And Wiggins was a track rider until August 2008.

I do find the tail chasing over him quite funny.

He has not ridden a mountain in competition yet this year so I can't judge his changes objectively yet, but the arguments used to downplay his achievements in the last 12 months do tend to boil down to 'the competition must have been weak because Wiggins beat them' with excuses found for every big name, and the bigger potential excuses Wiggins had and didn't need accordingly ignored.

 

[shalgo]

that's mostly because the stages are now so goddamn short compared to 15 years ago. 300 km stages were no exception

You'd have to go back a lot more than 15 years to find that. I scanned the stage lists starting in 1997 (15 years ago) and worked back from there. The first 300 km stage I found was stage 5 in 1990. The next was stage 21 in 1984. These numbers are from wikipedia, so there might be some errors, but the general point is that 300 km stages have been extremely rare for at least the last 30 years.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

You'd have to go back a lot more than 15 years to find that. I scanned the stage lists starting in 1997 (15 years ago) and worked back from there. The first 300 km stage I found was stage 5 in 1990. The next was stage 21 in 1984. These numbers are from wikipedia, so there might be some errors, but the general point is that 300 km stages have been extremely rare for at least the last 30 years.

But if you really understood cycling like Ryo does, you'd know about all the other 300km stages there have been in that time.

 

[theyoungest]

De Gendt is 25 years old, Cobo won a stage in 2008 Tour, Froome is also relatively young... Hesjedal and Westra are surprises

Cobo even won Pais Vasco somewhere along the line... but it's just a list of riders who haven't been climbing like angels all the time, and suddenly popped up (again).

 

[Caruut]

Eddy Merckx used to ride track. Just sayin'.

 

[Froome19]

Eddy Merckx used to ride track. Just sayin'.

Everybody in those days did.

De Gendt is 25 years old, Cobo won a stage in 2008 Tour, Froome is also relatively young... Hesjedal and Westra are surprises

Hesjedal wasnt a surprise as he showed already at the tour 10 what he could and then went well atthetour last year, yet was forced into a domestique role.

I know that. But it´s not a must to ruin the historic TdF either. Really, it´s ridiculous that a track rider is considered a tour favourite. That´s the whole hard truth.

P.S.: I don´t expect anything less than that this year will be the worst TdF ever. In all aspects (toughness, time gaps, excitement).

Why is it ridiculous?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Why is it ridiculous?

B/C in a real grand tour, those guys wouldn´t stand a chance. Simple as that.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Hesjedal wasnt a surprise as he showed already at the tour 10 what he could and then went well atthetour last year, yet was forced into a domestique role.

I meant he was a surprise in 2010 Tour, he was almost 30 then.

 

[Froome19]

B/C in a real grand tour, those guys wouldn´t stand a chance. Simple as that.

Yes they would

I meant he was a surprise in 2010 Tour, he was almost 30 then.

Oh sorry then ok....

 

[roundabout]

Yeah, remember Berzin beating Miguel whatshisname in 1994. That was a real GT and just 1 flat TT in it.

 

[Marco Pantani]

Andy will beat them up this year. Can't wait for the start. A wonderful time is coming.
I'm wondering big time how many guys go with nibali, menchov and sanchez.
Can't see anyone of them finish on the podium.

Andy for the win, two out of Evans, Wiggins, VDB and Gesink for the other podium spots.

And now .....fire at will!

 

[cineteq]

I expect the TdF even more dull than this years giro, which sounds absurd now. But it will be like this.

Impossible, there are too many egos, and I expect a lot of drama...the riders will make the race. Can't wait!

 

[The Hitch]

Andy will beat them up this year. Can't wait for the start. A wonderful time is coming.
I'm wondering big time how many guys go with nibali, menchov and sanchez.
Can't see anyone of them finish on the podium.

Andy for the win, two out of Evans, Wiggins, VDB and Gesink for the other podium spots.

And now .....fire at will!

Where will vdb and gesink get time on nibali menchov and sanchez?

Im starting to see a general pattern of riders who only care about the tour - gesink vdb, getting rated surprisingly highly, and the riders who actually race all round seasons - nibali menchov sanchez, get rated surprisingly lowly, despite each of the latte having a vastly superior palmares and record to each of the former

 

[theyoungest]

Where will vdb and gesink get time on nibali menchov and sanchez?

Im starting to see a general pattern of riders who only care about the tour - gesink vdb, getting rated surprisingly highly, and the riders who actually race all round seasons - nibali menchov sanchez, get rated surprisingly lowly, despite each of the latte having a vastly superior palmares and record to each of the former

Gesink only cares about the Tour... that's BS and you know it. He won the Tour of fecking Oman last year, not to mention what he's done in other stage races and one day races.

I have no idea why Menchov and Sanchez are rated lower than him (are they?)

 

[Froome19]

Where will vdb get time on nibali menchov and sanchez?

Fixed it for you

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Where will vdb and gesink get time on nibali menchov and sanchez?

Im starting to see a general pattern of riders who only care about the tour - gesink vdb, getting rated surprisingly highly, and the riders who actually race all round seasons - nibali menchov sanchez, get rated surprisingly lowly, despite each of the latte having a vastly superior palmares and record to each of the former

Gesink gets time on Nibali on TT and mountains, so that's pretty easy to answer

Results don't say everything in the case of Nibali / Gesink but I've told you before so why start over. Just wait and see

 

[mb2612]

Where will vdb and gesink get time on nibali menchov and sanchez?

Im starting to see a general pattern of riders who only care about the tour - gesink vdb, getting rated surprisingly highly, and the riders who actually race all round seasons - nibali menchov sanchez, get rated surprisingly lowly, despite each of the latte having a vastly superior palmares and record to each of the former

Riders who get results in American/French races > Italian/Spanish races.

Not sure why though.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Impossible, there are too many egos, and I expect a lot of drama...the riders will make the race. Can't wait!

I just hope you are right, and i am wrong.

 

[Frosty]

I just hope everyone stays upright in the first week/10 days so that they all have a decent chance to do their best...

...and also so there is no hiding place for anyone on here who has made dodgy predictions

Actually i do wonder whether Wiggins' misfortune last year might lead to Sky being more prominent on the front and end up helping Cavendish more than might be expected.

 

[Moviefan1203]

I just hope everyone stays upright in the first week/10 days so that they all have a decent chance to do their best...

That what I want too. The diluted field is something no one wants for the greatest race in the world.

 

[The Hitch]

Gesink only cares about the Tour... that's BS and you know it. He won the Tour of fecking Oman last year,

Andy won lbl. He doesn't rate it as a race though.

I dont think its unfair to say Gesink is a tour only rider. Thats not to say he is as bad as Andy.

It doesn't mean its the only race they ever do or win, hell Armstrong even won a race outside the tour on occasion, but it suggests that its the only race that is truly in their heart.

Anyone who by 23 has decided that for the rest of their career the tdf is the only gt they want to do, and that it is preferable to limp your way through to paris with an injury than do the vuelta, well i think its fair to say they are tour only riders.

Maybe he will change his mind or prove me wrong, but for now i think the tag is deserved and many of your own have joined me in criticizing Gesink for this particular thing.

Fixed it for you

Care to explain? Or is your sarcasm on its own supposed to enlighten me.

 

[The Hitch]

Gesink gets time on Nibali on TT and mountains, so that's pretty easy to answer

Results don't say everything in the case of Nibali / Gesink but I've told you before so why start over. Just wait and see

Mate, even i said recently that Gesink is a better tter and always said he was a better climber than Nibali, though its close and could go either way, but the thing to consider is that Gesink is not on top form because of the career threatning injury of 8 months ago, and if that is the case then one would expect Nibali to beat him.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I dont think its unfair to say Gesink is a tour only rider. Thats not to say he is as bad as Andy.
.

Are you serious? Sorry Hitch, you say 90% sensible things but you know as well as anyone that this is 100% bs and quite frankly laughable.

Gesink is an all-season rider who goes for almost everything he starts in. If he has any kind of legs he'll fight for whatever he can get. History has proven that time and time again each season.

It's a disgrace you call him a Tour only ride. A disgrace. Comnpare it to me saying Niemiec and Szmyd can't climb for sh.t

 

[stefrees]

Apparently bjarne Riis said this eve at his london book launch he'd heard cv int riding the tour, adding to what Adam Hansen said during the giro, it looks likely sky won't have to worry about cav. Add the 8 doing dauphine with zandio, lokqvist or nordhaug, and that ones boost wiggins chances further (sauce Felix Lowe on twitter)