Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Ragerod]

That is exactly my point. I just can't see Wiggo doing that, he never climbed like that at all. As long as there isn't too much valley Sky isn't going to do a better job at getting Schleck back, then what Evans did last year on the Galibier.

Also Andy will get company when he attacks. When they enter the mountains a lot of climbers will be way back al ready, so they'll enter the high mountain stages looking to gain time. I can see Evans or Menchov (who knows if he manages to get into shape though) limiting their losses when Schleck and the other climbers go race hard in the mountains, Wiggo however....

Of course all this depends on the assumption that Andy and the other climbers will have enough balls and motivation to ride the couple of decent mountain stages very aggressively. If they don't Wiggo has a good change at winning the TDF.

It was a great ride by both last year but Schleck only had three minutes at the start of the false flat and with the help of Monfort and a QS rider it increased to four minutes by the time they reached the serious stuff. With Wiggins and Sky on the front that lead wouldn't have been any bigger than three minutes and probably less. Then it becomes seconds at the top and not minutes.

Besides Evans great ride up the Galibier only gained him a handful of seconds on Voeckler, a guy that has shown less than Wiggins on the big stuff.

The route and negative riding plays into Wiggins' hands. Personally I think he would have made the podium last year if none of the favourites had crashed out and this year is his best chance.

 

[The Hitch]

And don't forget what a massive effort that was by Evans. Schleck was great that day, but Evans was majestic as well, crushing guys like Contador and Sanchez just by setting a steady pace. Wiggins has never shown the climbing pedigree anywhere close to that.

On the other hand he failed to drop voeckler or rolland or an off form basso, while Contador was obviously weak for a number of reasons, and Sanchez had on 4 of the previous 6 stages.

 

[cineteq]

On the other hand he failed to drop voeckler or rolland or an off form basso, while Contador was obviously weak for a number of reasons.

I think we saw the real Contador, namely the rider that will be doing La Vuelta this year. He won't be dominating anymore.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

I think we saw the real Contador, namely the rider that will be doing La Vuelta this year. He won't be dominating anymore.

Contador being weak last TDF had nothing to do with riding the Giro

 

[Parrulo]

Contador being weak last TDF had nothing to do with riding the Giro

nor with crashes that lead to a knee injury during the first week of the tour

 

[LaFlorecita]

I think we saw the real Contador, namely the rider that will be doing La Vuelta this year. He won't be dominating anymore.

 

[cineteq]

Contador being weak last TDF had nothing to do with riding the Giro

nor with crashes that lead to a knee injury during the first week of the tour

You guys are so smart!
To set the record straight, I'm not suggesting he won't be winning more GTs. He's too talented, he loves to win and has nerves of steel, unlike the majority of the top riders.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Well Spain isn't france. I think in Spainone can still race alot better prepared then in France.

 

[goggalor]

On the other hand he failed to drop voeckler or rolland or an off form basso, while Contador was obviously weak for a number of reasons, and Sanchez had on 4 of the previous 6 stages.

Well, Voeckler had a stunning Tour until he cracked the next day and Rolland outclimbed both Sanchez and Contador on Alpe d'Huez. There's no shame in not dropping them. Of course Evans did finally ride away from everyone but Fränk when the gradient kicked up in the last few hundred meters. And don't forget he was riding on the front into a head wind with no help at all, and that the group was massive when he started.

That said, even if Wiggins hasn't showed Evans' climbing prowess or ability to ride a great third week TT, he has never ridden with the confidence he's riding with this year. He just looks like a Tour winner. But he wasn't put under pressure in P-N or Romandie like he will be in the Tour. It'll be interesting to see how he handles it.

 

[airstream]

It is a humorous way of reasoning. Supposedly Wiggins is not good enough climber since he did not prove himself on the level of Evans on the Galibier. Given the stages like Galibier happen only once or twice in decade, therefore, 3-4 climbers can show themselves in this regard.

Wiggins will be strong on the climbs. It won't be enough for MJ surely, but top-3 is quite tangible.

 

[The Hitch]

Well, Voeckler had a stunning Tour until he cracked the next day and Rolland outclimbed both Sanchez and Contador on Alpe d'Huez. .

Don't quite see the significance of that since we already established that Samu and Contador were weaker and that Rolland was better than them on that stage.

Anyway, Sanchez went faster up Alpe than Rolland. Rolland broke away before the climb when all the contenders were looking at eachother, took it easier up the first half at which point Sanchez caught him, then latched on to Samu until 2k to go when for the first time in half an hour he felt the wind on his skin.

 

[The Hitch]

Well Spain isn't france. I think in Spainone can still race alot better prepared then in France.

The same France where Turgot just got cleared?

 

[Walkman]

On the other hand he failed to drop voeckler or rolland or an off form basso, while Contador was obviously weak for a number of reasons, and Sanchez had on 4 of the previous 6 stages.

Your post makes no sense since Vockler nad Rolland were high profile climber during the 2011 Tour and Basso wasn't "off form". Sure he wasn't the old RoboBasso with him crashing and so but still, off form, is not the correct assessment of Bassos 2011 Tour form.

And then there was the headwind and all that, but I guess that you have to have ridden a bike to know the difference between setting the pace and drafting when there is even the slightest of headwind...

 

[The Hitch]

And then there was the headwind and all that, but I guess that you have to have ridden a bike to know the difference between setting the pace and drafting when there is even the slightest of headwind...

Wow. You know just how rare Evans is on the front of a road race when his fans are making a big deal of the fact that there is wind. As if all the other contenders bar Frank didn't spent lots of time in the wind too. Wtf was Andy doing?

Your post makes no sense since Vockler nad Rolland were high profile climber during the 2011 Tour and Basso wasn't "off form".

My post makes no sense because you think Voeckler and Rolland are top top level gt contenders?

Just how high do you rate Voeckler? On par with, Frank, Gesink, Sanchez, Nibali, Menchov?

If you think it makes no sense to suggest he doesn't belong with the heads of state on the queen state of a gt, then presumably you see Voeckler as 1 of the top handful of gt riders around, who should be listed as a major contender for any grand tour he enters.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yeah, last years TDF 70% of the top 5/10 contenders were either eliminated or heavily bruised and battered before the mountains even begun. So guys like Voeckler, Cunego and Danielson could top 10.
I hope this year at least 80% of the 15 best riders for the classification survive the first weeks.. That'll be a giant improvement over last year. Which was basically Evans + Schlecks vs the ones that somehow survived

 

[Woody22]

On the other hand he failed to drop voeckler or rolland or an off form basso, while Contador was obviously weak for a number of reasons, and Sanchez had on 4 of the previous 6 stages.

Hitch, can you please clear something up for me?

Is it Evans you don't like, or is it anyone who posts something positive about him that annoys you?

Seems you can't help but jump in with a comment and try to diminish his performance in some way. I get the feeling that the a couple of the more "colourful" Evans supporters on this forum have turned you right against him.

By all means post whatever you like, just wondering what the answer is so I know what light to view your posts in.

And by the way, I like Samu... one of the few Spanish riders I actually believe in.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Wtf was Andy doing?

Hiding behind Monfort?

 

[Caruut]

Hiding behind Monfort?

And Posthuma before that.

 

[The Hitch]

Hitch, can you please clear something up for me?

Is it Evans you don't like, or is it anyone who posts something positive about him that annoys you?

Seems you can't help but jump in with a comment and try to diminish his performance in some way. I get the feeling that the a couple of the more "colourful" Evans supporters on this forum have turned you right against him.

By all means post whatever you like, just wondering what the answer is so I know what light to view your posts in.

And by the way, I like Samu... one of the few Spanish riders I actually believe in.

I don't like some of his supporters i like others. I won't hold Evans, or any rider really, to account for his supporters anyway.

Evans himself, i love as much as most riders. And like most riders i cheered for him more before he won a big race (or in his case before he won the race his career deserved). Its my sport and i defend all of them unless they turn on the sport or its riders themselves ( like Lance for example, and Andy to a smaller extent).
I cared very much about the receptions he recieved in australia after his win, just like i spent all day and night reading through canadian newspapers last week to see what was being written about Ryder.
I even some months back when one of your ozzie news outlets had some discussion with a "journo" who had constructed a top 50 athletes of 2011, stayed up through the night (with ACF) to together pester him about putting Cadel so low on the list (though we both argued Gilbert should have been even higher).

There are some things that I definately don't like about Evans such as the fact that he can sometimes talk crap and not be straight to the listeners. And even though i always aknowledge that Contador and Samu have the exact same fault, as does andy and many others, I of course get totaly slaughtered by ozzies everytime for saying it, and perhaps its where some of these unfair accusations that i hate Evans come from,

If you like Samu, good for you, that has little to do with this discussion, and it won't change my opinion of evans himself because as i said the riders cannot be held accountable for their fans, good or bad.

As to the main q, why I "diminish" Evans' performance on Galibier, well because thats what the discussion was about and thats what i saw. I never said it was crap, the one thing i said about it here was that Voeckler and Rolland held on - a fact, in a discussion as to what the performance revealed about Evans climbing skills.

Has nothing to do with love or hate. i diminish Nibali's performances too, much more than Cadel's and yet ive been at other times called a "nibali fanboy".

 

[The Hitch]

Hiding behind Monfort?

Monfort got dropped long before then.

 

[Caruut]

I think the fact that Voeckler held on is far more relevant than the fact that Rolland held on.

 

[Woody22]

I don't like some of his supporters i like others. I won't hold Evans, or any rider really, to account for his supporters anyway.

Evans himself, i love as much as most riders. And like most riders i cheered for him more before he won a big race (or in his case before he won the race his career deserved). Its my sport and i defend all of them unless they turn on the sport or its riders themselves ( like Lance for example, and Andy to a smaller extent).
I cared very much about the receptions he recieved in australia after his win, just like i spent all day and night reading through canadian newspapers last week to see what was being written about Ryder.
I even some months back when one of your ozzie news outlets had some discussion with a "journo" who had constructed a top 50 athletes of 2011, stayed up through the night (with ACF) to together pester him about putting Cadel so low on the list (though we both argued Gilbert should have been even higher).

There are some things that I definately don't like about Evans such as the fact that he can sometimes talk crap and not be straight to the listeners. And even though i always aknowledge that Contador and Samu have the exact same fault, as does andy and many others, I of course get totaly slaughtered by ozzies everytime for saying it, and perhaps its where some of these unfair accusations that i hate Evans come from,

If you like Samu, good for you, that has little to do with this discussion, and it won't change my opinion of evans himself because as i said the riders cannot be held accountable for their fans, good or bad.

As to the main q, why I "diminish" Evans' performance on Galibier, well because thats what the discussion was about and thats what i saw. I never said it was crap, the one thing i said about it here was that Voeckler and Rolland held on - a fact, in a discussion as to what the performance revealed about Evans climbing skills.

Has nothing to do with love or hate. i diminish Nibali's performances too, much more than Cadel's and yet ive been at other times called a "nibali fanboy".

Thanks for that.

 

[karlboss]

It's tough to say just how good Evans was on Galibier. Voekler held on, but as Rolland asked if he should help, Voekler said no, and Voekler lost time at the end of the day, I'd say he was at his limit, drafting up hill into a head wind. In the entire length of the Galibier noone had the strength to attack Evans, maybe Frank or Pierre, until the end. Frank certainly didn't have much as he barely opened a gap and I'm almost sure he couldn't have stayed away. In my mind there was a clear strongest 3 on Galibier, Schleck, Evans, and Rolland, if anyone were to pick one of those names as the strongest they'd have a good point. Everyone else was in survival mode.
As this started from is Wiggins or Evans a better climber, claiming that Wiggins would have held on doesn't really suggest anything. Number one as he wasn't there, number two holding someone's wheel into a head wind does not make you their climbing equal, and number three tactics would have changed enormously.
I haven't seen Wiggins climb anything in 2010 or 2011 to suggest that he could have done any better than Frank Schleck that day. May have been able to take a turn and time out of Schleck but none from Evans, or sprint over top of Evans at the end for a few seconds.
On 2009 form...well many will point out, that was 2009. There wasn't a whole lot of selective climbing there, Verbier was a 8km climb, 6km battle and for 4km of that Wiggins mostly sat in wheels, but was certainly still strong over the final 2km. Ventoux was a soft climbed battle more about 3rd than 1st, with no real gaps until the final minute of the climb.

 

[UlleGigo]

For those saying Wiggins will win. I can't see it. Any time he gains in the first tt he will lose in the second one and apart from that I can see him getting dropped on at least one of the mtf.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Where's Cobo? Unlikely he'll win considering the course but I'll be pulling for him nonetheless.