Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[whittashau]

I'm calling Wiggins in first by 2 minutes. Very likely two Sky riders in the top-5, Wiggins on the top.

I also predict Saxo bank GC contenders won't have enough power to stay close to the top-3.

Saxobank have GC contenders?

 

[Bala Verde]

Instead of just saying who will win or podium, what will the tactics be for those picks to achieve those results?

 

[LaFlorecita]

what language is this?

Dutch..........

 

[LaFlorecita]

It was a very pleasant dream I must say.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Saxobank have GC contenders?

No. DW is trolling, I shall put him on my "recommended ignore list".

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Now that the Dauphine and TdS are over, I have a little bit more hope for this TDF. In the Dauphine we saw Evans and Nibali trying it in the descend. Unfortunately Samu crashed, but surely in the TDF he will join Evans and Nibali in the descending. Also nice to see JVDB do a good TT, now if he attacks in the mountains, UK postal will be forced to do something about it; they can't give him any time if he TTs well. Overall we saw a really strong UK postal, but at least Evans and Nibali tried some aggressive riding in the mountains which is the only way anybody is going to beat Wiggo.

In the TdS we saw other strong teams than UK postal; Astana had Kiserlovski, Kessiakoff etc. We saw RSNT with Monfort, Kloden, Fuglsang; we saw Rabobank a.k.a. NL Postal with Slagter, Ten Dam, Mollema, Kruijswijk. So there are enough strong teams to try and isolate UK Postal a bit. Or least get rid of Porte, Rogers and EBH, which Wiggo's rival's couldn't even do at Dauphine. We also saw strong climbers willing to attack on penultimate climbs, even if the final climb was crappy and if there was a lot of flat. This is great for the TDF; just like in the Dauphine riders have shown to be willing to take big risks and attack in the mountains, even on the penultimate climb if the final climb is too crappy. We need that looking at the mountain stages in the TDF.

Concluding: the aggressive riding in Dauphine and TdS gives me a bit of hope that they'll ride aggressively in the mountains in the TDF as well. That's the only way this TDF will be any fun to watch: if all these riders do a decent TT and then try to break Wiggo in the mountains. Let's hope they've got the guts to take risks not just in prep races where it doesn't matter that much, but in the TDF as well.

 

[Afrank]

Concluding: the aggressive riding in Dauphine and TdS gives me a bit of hope that they'll ride aggressively in the mountains in the TDF as well. That's the only way this TDF will be any fun to watch: if all these riders do a decent TT and then try to break Wiggo in the mountains. Let's hope they've got the guts to take risks not just in prep races where it doesn't matter that much, but in the TDF as well.

Yes +1, If anyone wants to beat Wiggins and UK Postal then they need to do alot more attacking and they will need to take risks in those attacks.

Maybe if we're lucky we will get to see Evans, Schleck, Gesink, JVDB, Nibali, and Sanchez all join together in a long range attack to get a gap on Wiggins.

 

[roundabout]

Actually, no. Watching Gesink ride for Costa gave me less hope for the Tour. There will be people protecting their 3rd, 4th, 5th places etc. There's no way that there will be an alliance against Sky.

 

[Task_Force]

we saw Rabobank a.k.a. NL Postal with Slagter, Ten Dam, Mollema, Kruijswijk.

you forgot one

 

[Afrank]

Actually, no. Watching Gesink ride for Costa gave me less hope for the Tour. There will be people protecting their 3rd, 4th, 5th places etc. There's no way that there will be an alliance against Sky.

Yes, there will probably be people just hanging on to protect their current place. But hopefully a few can find courage to attack from far out and take the necessary risks to win. I am really hoping that people do this, otherwise it will just be Wiggins and sky team trialing to catch breakaways. Frank Schleck I thought showed he has a chance of doing this, And maybe Evans can do this as well.

 

[roundabout]

Any big name rider who attacked the stage before or simply doesn't feel strong enough to go on a long attack would use his helpers to chase down attacks from his opposition.

They should let Sky/Wiggins do it till they crack, but I am afraid it won't come to that.

 

[cineteq]

Maybe if we're lucky we will get to see Evans, Schleck, Gesink, JVDB, Nibali, and Sanchez all join together in a long range attack to get a gap on Wiggins.

I think it's going to be funny watching Wiggo and UK Postal trying to cover every single attack all of those guys do. Like bridging by himself 100m to Nibali and Evans in the Dauphiné LOL!!!

PS: Glad to see Menchov is not mentioned anymore

 

[taiwan]

Frank Schleck should be entertaining in this race. His attacks will likely do nothing for his GC placing, but still. Evans and Nibali will make small opportunistic attacks, but neither are the type to just ride away in the mountains from that good a field. Sanchez has become a mystery man since his crash, because we don't know whether he can make it to top form or not. It would be cool if he'd use that to his advantage. Without a Contador to here to blow the race apart, there are a lot of people simply depending on Wiggins cracking at some point. Frank Schleck might be the one who actually makes the race.

I still refuse to rule Menchov out. No Bert --> it's sort of open. He could win.

I confess I haven't seen video of the contenders recently to judge their form, only results.

 

[roundabout]

Because of hog's brilliant season planning Schleck would likely to be dead by the Pyrenees.

 

[airstream]

Because of hog's brilliant season planning Schleck would likely to be dead by the Pyrenees.

What is he to blame for? How would you plan?

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

After his great performance this week, obviously Cavendish is the favorite.

Very nice to see him actually become a racer. Less a disgrace for the shirt he's wearing now.

 

[taiwan]

Because of hog's brilliant season planning Schleck would likely to be dead by the Pyrenees.

IDK he didn't really race the Giro, he might be ok.

 

[Afrank]

Because of hog's brilliant season planning Schleck would likely to be dead by the Pyrenees.

I would have to disagree, he pulled out of the Giro before they entered the really big mountains and his form was looking good in the tour de suisse. I don't think he'll have a problem with fatigue due to his schedule.

 

[Potomac]

How do i change my vote to F. Schleck?

 

[Azabael]

How do i change my vote to F. Schleck?

The system is made to prevent such failure.

 

[ElChingon]

How do i change my vote to F. Schleck?

First of all thanks to the Mod who removed my vote for Nibali that got merged into F.Schleck when they made that replacement.

But, now that A.Schleck is not going can he be removed like Nibali and a suitable candidate be added? I'd vote for Valverde if that was the choice but its really up to the OP. (I know not a high candidate but that's my choice if allowed or added)

 

[karlboss]

Well I'm glad I waited until now to cast a vote

I think Wiggins is the favourite, but is too one dimensional. Sky will have to control things all day everyday, and while it was possible for USPS I don't think it is for Sky. I think there will be one day when it all comes unstuck, be it a crash or missing a split, and that'll even things up and will be tour over.
I think either Evans and Sanchez will win. Evans as unlike the other contenders, can go toe to toe with Wiggins in a TT, and can sit and wait for his moment, he really doesn't need to force anything. However I'll take Sanchez over Evans, the reason being once, when Evans is sitting on Wiggins and waiting for something to happen, all the climbers will try something suicidal, and it'll come off, and of those guys Sanchez is the best TTer.
Form is the big question mark after the crash, but I'll choose courage over form.

 

[ustabe]

Well I'm glad I waited until now to cast a vote
I think either Evans and Sanchez will win. Evans as unlike the other contenders, can go toe to toe with Wiggins in a TT, and can sit and wait for his moment, he really doesn't need to force anything. However I'll take Sanchez over Evans, the reason being once, when Evans is sitting on Wiggins and waiting for something to happen, all the climbers will try something suicidal, and it'll come off, and of those guys Sanchez is the best TTer.

Very interesting.

I don't think the climbing will be that crucial, though. Whatever Sanchez picks up on the climbs, Evans will make up in the TTs.

 

[dlwssonic]

I hope evans won't make the mistake of following wiggins wheel.
He should follow the climbers because I believe he can match them.

 

[Swede1]

Ill still go with a podium of
1) Evans
2) Wiggins
3) Menchov
I really want Menchov to do well but he is a little bit of an unknown, but if in form he could make the podium. I think VDB will be a top rival for the podium, but won't quite make it because of one bad day. Gesink, Nibali, F Schleck, and Leipheimer should be in the top 10 and reasonably close to the winner. To finish the top 10 I think Brajkovic, and Rolland should be able to make it.