Who will win La Vuelta a España 2024?

[Gigs_98]

But.

It can't be

You weren't watching.

Judging by what happened, you haven't even checked the result yet.

Tbf I was watching the last 10 km or so assuming that would be the only relevant part of the stage

 

[YavorD]

This Vuelta is coming too quickly after the Olympics, PFP and Remco. I could have used an extra week to build up for La Vuelta. The OP says it all, Roglic, then Mas, then an interesting bunch, and it's Almeida's podium spot to lose. Vai Antonio!

When I saw "Vai Antonio" for a second I thought you mean Nibali.

 

[Tonton]

When I saw "Vai Antonio" for a second I thought you mean Nibali.

You say that because I cheer for Thibaut Nys ...

 

[fenns]

O'Connor has changed the narrative. It looked like it was going to be how Roglic builds a lead over the field - which would been interesting enough but now it's even more intriguing.

 

[Pozzovivo]

My bet on O'connor to top 10 looks good...

 

[Sciatic]

O'Connor has changed the narrative. It looked like it was going to be how Roglic builds a lead over the field - which would been interesting enough but now it's even more intriguing.

Could be. Could also end up with teams that aren’t gutsy enough or strong enough to make much of a dent, and they’ll give up trying.

 

[Cookster15]

O'Conner not even considered for the poll LOL. This is going to be interesting. 4'45" is a lot. I think he would have to crack - certainly possible. But Roglic and co are not going to take that much time by shear superiority if O'Conner doesn't crack.

By comparison, non climber Thomas Voeckler was hard to dislodge from the yellow jersey at the 2011 Tour. But Voeckler's lead was only 2'26".

 

[Rackham]

I happen to think we're going to see O'Connor get repeatedly dropped here.

If Primož Roglič has his TdF legs, then just look at what's coming, i.e. from tomorrow all the way through to next weekend there's plenty of climbs with double digits where he can drop O'Connor & even take back the red jersey.

I mean just look at the last 3km's of stage 15:

IMO people are getting way too carried away with the O'Connor hype.

I still think it's Rog versus the tarmac & Almeida.

 

[Cookster15]

I happen to think we're going to see O'Connor get repeatedly dropped here.

If Primož Roglič has his TdF legs, then just look at what's coming, i.e. from tomorrow all the way through to next weekend there's plenty of climbs with double digits where he can drop O'Connor & even take back the red jersey.

I mean just look at the last 3km's of stage 15:

IMO people are getting way too carried away with the O'Connor hype.

I still think it's Rog versus the tarmac & Almeida.

Maybe. But unless O'Conner cracks he isn't going to lose 4 minutes on stages like this. very doubtful. He needs to crack else it ain't happening. Also remember when Roglic lost the 2019 Giro to Carapaz.

 

[Tim Cahill]

O'Connor will lose 20 or 30 seconds here and there on some of these climbs but it's not enough.

Roglic needs to go before the last climb on one of these stages, but Mas or LVE might be able to follow.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I happen to think we're going to see O'Connor get repeatedly dropped here.

If Primož Roglič has his TdF legs, then just look at what's coming, i.e. from tomorrow all the way through to next weekend there's plenty of climbs with double digits where he can drop O'Connor & even take back the red jersey.

I mean just look at the last 3km's of stage 15:

IMO people are getting way too carried away with the O'Connor hype.

I still think it's Rog versus the tarmac & Almeida.

There's only so much time that O'Connor can lose in 3 kilometres if he's still there at the start of them. Look at the time gaps when they did Zoncolan from the wrong side (that's almost an identical climb) in the 2021 Giro - the first 10 guys finished within a minute of each other. Assuming the same time difference per kilometre in the final TT, Roglic needs to make up 3:33 before then - not a crazy order, but with only six actual mountain stages plus tomorrow's HTF and maybe the odd bonus second on other stages to claw it back in, Roglic needs to be aiming for an average gain of ~35 seconds per mountain stage to reel in O'Connor. Can't see O'Connor losing much more than that in those final three kilometres of Cuitu Negru assuming he's still in the front group when they get there, and if he isn't, then the route is irrelevant to his chances anyway.

TL;DR - you are overrating Cuitu Negru by a lot.

 

[AmRacer]

What about the last stage then? How much time can Roglic and Almeida gain on Ben?

 

[ppanther92]

One day has passed and already most of these takes were completely wrong. As an American I felt bad for putting Kuss this low but now it seems generous.

At least you didn’t put McNulty

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Lmao the's apparently a climb with 2.5km at 14% - in what could be a sprint stage.

Yes, and it chains directly into Lunada, which chains directly into Picón Blanco where they finish on stage 20. There are definitely some baffling choices with regards to the route this year...

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Conventionally, yes. But then by many of these normal assumptions we're talking about 2 climbers where the level difference is fairly marginal, and where riders would attack fairly late to minimize reverse implied odds.

Many climbs get these 20-30 second gaps among the top 2-3 or even top 5 but then lower down the top 10 gaps explode pretty hard.

O Connor had 2 days in the Giro where he wasn't in the top 10 of GC climbers, and where he dropped like 35 and 41s to Dani Martinez on very moderate climbs. He was also like 8th best on Grappa IIRC but it all came back together. And in the Giro, nobody gave a flying *** about O Connor dropping or not.

And that's to Dani Martinez. Now say what you want about Roglic, I still find it pretty fair to assume he's the 4th best climber in the world, judging by the trajectory of the TdF. If O Connor is basically at his Giro level, but a much stronger rider than Dani Martinez is gonna focus him down specifically, gaps can go up pretty quickly.

I mean, it's pretty obvious that O'Connor needs to do better than at the Giro to have a chance of keeping the jersey all the way (although iirc he had a bit of sickness in the final week). But it's also pretty obvious that the gap is too big to safely be closed with only Roglstomps.

 

[Cookster15]

If O Connor is basically at his Giro level, but a much stronger rider than Dani Martinez is gonna focus him down specifically, gaps can go up pretty quickly.

I think O'Conner seems better than in the Giro. On stage 6 they weren't riding slow - as said by Jack Haig (below). So O'Conner was very strong. And Dani Martinez is 9 minutes down. O'Conner can simply ignore him.

Jack Haig - 'Ben O'Connor has a really good chance now to win the Vuelta a España'

Fellow Australian riding Vuelta in support of Bahrain Victorious teammate Antonio Tiberi

www.cyclingnews.com

I think many guys in the peloton were surprised at how big the gap was at the finish because we weren't going easy in the group

 

[YavorD]

I really don't think we can apply usual "he was dropped by X minutes/seconds on this and that race" logic when we talk about a guy in red (or yellow or pink). I mean we've seen weaker climbers than O'Connor do heroics in the mountains when they lead in a GT.
5 minutes is a lot and I don't think Roglic can/should rely on short gains in each stage.

As I said in the other thread Sunday is the stage they have to go really hard and see how much they can gain. That stage is suited for bigger gaps. If Roglic gets himself within 2.5 minutes by the rest day then fine, Roglstomps in the last km should be enough. But just relying on "yeah, I'll drop him for 30 seconds on each stage" is waay too risky

 

[Squire]

It is a *** weird position though. I don't think I've ever seen a strategic position like Roglic is in now. I don't think Giro 2010 compares that well either.

Yeah, it's quite impossible to call, really.

I guess the main difference to the Giro 2010 was that Arroyo was much weaker than O'Connor. The advantage was also much bigger, but it did feel somewhat inevitable that he wouldn't hold on despite the final gap not being that big in the end.

In 2006, on the other hand, Pereiro had a smaller advantage than O'Connor and not quite the previous GT results that O'Connor has (although O'Connor's results look somewhat better than they really are). And while Pereiro, like Arroyo, didn't quite make it in the end, he did beat Klöden, Sastre etc. and only lost to Landis due to yet another miscalculation/tactical error by several teams.

As @YavorD says, there is previous for a sudden race leader to find a new level. I feel like O'Connor's gap is the perfect size for a very interesting race. Unless he just ships 3 minutes on Sunday and everything we've discussed turns irrelevant. Anything can happen, really. And I have a tiny hunch that Roglic might be a bit like 2012 Basso. Not much evidence, but I have a feeling he might not be as strong as expected.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Yeah, it's quite impossible to call, really.

I guess the main difference to the Giro 2010 was that Arroyo was much weaker than O'Connor. The advantage was also much bigger, but it did feel somewhat inevitable that he wouldn't hold on despite the final gap not being that big in the end.

In 2006, on the other hand, Pereiro had a smaller advantage than O'Connor and not quite the previous GT results that O'Connor has (although O'Connor's results look somewhat better than they really are). And while Pereiro, like Arroyo, didn't quite make it in the end, he did beat Klöden, Sastre etc. and only lost to Landis due to yet another miscalculation/tactical error by several teams.

As @YavorD says, there is previous for a sudden race leader to find a new level. I feel like O'Connor's gap is the perfect size for a very interesting race. Unless he just ships 3 minutes on Sunday and everything we've discussed turns irrelevant. Anything can happen, really. And I have a tiny hunch that Roglic might be a bit like 2012 Basso. Not much evidence, but I have a feeling he might not be as strong as expected.

Could be, given the back injury. But Roglic is always good in the Vuelta and in the last mountain stage he contested in the Tour, he was 1:24 ahead of Almeida and the rest of the non-Mutants, so we’ll see.

 

[scribers]

It’s time jayco starts working for O’Connor