Who will win La Vuelta a España 2024?

[Devil's Elbow]

Lmao the's apparently a climb with 2.5km at 14% - in what could be a sprint stage.

Yes, and it chains directly into Lunada, which chains directly into Picón Blanco where they finish on stage 20. There are definitely some baffling choices with regards to the route this year...

 

[Red Rick]

Yes, and it chains directly into Lunada, which chains directly into Picón Blanco where they finish on stage 20. There are definitely some baffling choices with regards to the route this year...

Didn't even know that. Dumbest pipe dream for that region is still Los Machucos or whatever it's called as mid stage climb.

The stage that actually pisses me off is Manzaneda. Don't know who the hell pays for I wanna see Fonte da Cova pretty bad, even if it's Unipuerto

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Conventionally, yes. But then by many of these normal assumptions we're talking about 2 climbers where the level difference is fairly marginal, and where riders would attack fairly late to minimize reverse implied odds.

Many climbs get these 20-30 second gaps among the top 2-3 or even top 5 but then lower down the top 10 gaps explode pretty hard.

O Connor had 2 days in the Giro where he wasn't in the top 10 of GC climbers, and where he dropped like 35 and 41s to Dani Martinez on very moderate climbs. He was also like 8th best on Grappa IIRC but it all came back together. And in the Giro, nobody gave a flying *** about O Connor dropping or not.

And that's to Dani Martinez. Now say what you want about Roglic, I still find it pretty fair to assume he's the 4th best climber in the world, judging by the trajectory of the TdF. If O Connor is basically at his Giro level, but a much stronger rider than Dani Martinez is gonna focus him down specifically, gaps can go up pretty quickly.

I mean, it's pretty obvious that O'Connor needs to do better than at the Giro to have a chance of keeping the jersey all the way (although iirc he had a bit of sickness in the final week). But it's also pretty obvious that the gap is too big to safely be closed with only Roglstomps.

 

[Cookster15]

If O Connor is basically at his Giro level, but a much stronger rider than Dani Martinez is gonna focus him down specifically, gaps can go up pretty quickly.

I think O'Conner seems better than in the Giro. On stage 6 they weren't riding slow - as said by Jack Haig (below). So O'Conner was very strong. And Dani Martinez is 9 minutes down. O'Conner can simply ignore him.

Jack Haig - 'Ben O'Connor has a really good chance now to win the Vuelta a España'

Fellow Australian riding Vuelta in support of Bahrain Victorious teammate Antonio Tiberi

www.cyclingnews.com

I think many guys in the peloton were surprised at how big the gap was at the finish because we weren't going easy in the group

 

[Red Rick]

I think O'Conner seems better than in the Giro. On stage 6 they weren't riding slow - as said by Jack Haig (below). So O'Conner was very strong. And Dani Martinez is 9 minutes down. O'Conner can simply ignore him.

Jack Haig - 'Ben O'Connor has a really good chance now to win the Vuelta a España'

Fellow Australian riding Vuelta in support of Bahrain Victorious teammate Antonio Tiberi

www.cyclingnews.com

I've seen power data.

They were going easy

 

[YavorD]

I really don't think we can apply usual "he was dropped by X minutes/seconds on this and that race" logic when we talk about a guy in red (or yellow or pink). I mean we've seen weaker climbers than O'Connor do heroics in the mountains when they lead in a GT.
5 minutes is a lot and I don't think Roglic can/should rely on short gains in each stage.

As I said in the other thread Sunday is the stage they have to go really hard and see how much they can gain. That stage is suited for bigger gaps. If Roglic gets himself within 2.5 minutes by the rest day then fine, Roglstomps in the last km should be enough. But just relying on "yeah, I'll drop him for 30 seconds on each stage" is waay too risky

 

[Red Rick]

I really don't think we can apply usual "he was dropped by X minutes/seconds on this and that race" logic when we talk about a guy in red (or yellow or pink). I mean we've seen weaker climbers than O'Connor do heroics in the mountains when they lead in a GT.
5 minutes is a lot and I don't think Roglic can/should rely on short gains in each stage.

As I said in the other thread Sunday is the stage they have to go really hard and see how much they can gain. That stage is suited for bigger gaps. If Roglic gets himself within 2.5 minutes by the rest day then fine, Roglstomps in the last km should be enough. But just relying on "yeah, I'll drop him for 30 seconds on each stage" is waay too risky

If we take Kuss as a reference, then Kuss had definitely shown higher peaks as a climber than O Connor had, with even having glimpses of being the clear 3rd best climber in the TdF in 2023. O Connor has never really done that.

It is a *** weird position though. I don't think I've ever seen a strategic position like Roglic is in now. I don't think Giro 2010 compares that well either.

There's a few stages like tomorrow, where the more traditional stomp should just happen to take time in the magnitude of seconds. But the real charge starts on Hazallanas. With 'normal' legs, I would think Roglic just attacks quite early in his usual seated acceleration, and then go from there. He won't be that scared to pace the group on a 10% climb, but I don'tthink Roglic is gonna let himself blow up either. Unless he drops everyone easily, then you just send it.

While I love the Hazallanas stage desgin, I kinda think it comes too early despite the insane GC situation we have. It would be sicker as a 3rd week queen stage though in that case I'd prefer the penultimate one to go over Sabinas.

 

[Squire]

It is a *** weird position though. I don't think I've ever seen a strategic position like Roglic is in now. I don't think Giro 2010 compares that well either.

Yeah, it's quite impossible to call, really.

I guess the main difference to the Giro 2010 was that Arroyo was much weaker than O'Connor. The advantage was also much bigger, but it did feel somewhat inevitable that he wouldn't hold on despite the final gap not being that big in the end.

In 2006, on the other hand, Pereiro had a smaller advantage than O'Connor and not quite the previous GT results that O'Connor has (although O'Connor's results look somewhat better than they really are). And while Pereiro, like Arroyo, didn't quite make it in the end, he did beat Klöden, Sastre etc. and only lost to Landis due to yet another miscalculation/tactical error by several teams.

As @YavorD says, there is previous for a sudden race leader to find a new level. I feel like O'Connor's gap is the perfect size for a very interesting race. Unless he just ships 3 minutes on Sunday and everything we've discussed turns irrelevant. Anything can happen, really. And I have a tiny hunch that Roglic might be a bit like 2012 Basso. Not much evidence, but I have a feeling he might not be as strong as expected.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Yeah, it's quite impossible to call, really.

I guess the main difference to the Giro 2010 was that Arroyo was much weaker than O'Connor. The advantage was also much bigger, but it did feel somewhat inevitable that he wouldn't hold on despite the final gap not being that big in the end.

In 2006, on the other hand, Pereiro had a smaller advantage than O'Connor and not quite the previous GT results that O'Connor has (although O'Connor's results look somewhat better than they really are). And while Pereiro, like Arroyo, didn't quite make it in the end, he did beat Klöden, Sastre etc. and only lost to Landis due to yet another miscalculation/tactical error by several teams.

As @YavorD says, there is previous for a sudden race leader to find a new level. I feel like O'Connor's gap is the perfect size for a very interesting race. Unless he just ships 3 minutes on Sunday and everything we've discussed turns irrelevant. Anything can happen, really. And I have a tiny hunch that Roglic might be a bit like 2012 Basso. Not much evidence, but I have a feeling he might not be as strong as expected.

Could be, given the back injury. But Roglic is always good in the Vuelta and in the last mountain stage he contested in the Tour, he was 1:24 ahead of Almeida and the rest of the non-Mutants, so we’ll see.

 

[scribers]

It’s time jayco starts working for O’Connor