Who will win Liège-Bastogne-Liège?

[auscyclefan94]

I don't really agree. Sanchez is imo made for these kind of races.
It's a shame he doesn't race L-B-L that often.
Mollema and Nibali will probably be up there, allthough Nibali hasn't really shown his face yet, but L-B-L suits him most of the 3 Ardennes races.

Ofcourse The Hitch jumps on everyone that doesn't rate Sanchez very high as well

Just like many others do when their favourite rider doesn't get the recognition they think he/she should get.

Sanchez rarely rides these races therefore it is not reasonable to say he will do well.

Massive favourite refers to Gilbert not Sanchez

an wtf. saying sanchez has a better chance than mollema and nibali is not being objective. did you hit your head or something?

Who is the better hilly classics rider ?

I would suggest its the guy with 2 lombardy podiums a fw podium gp mig win 4th in hilly worlds and and victory in the one hilly one dayer every rider wanted to win.

What do nibali and mollema have that added together compares to this?

I would say Sanchez has proven himself to be a better hilly rider.

Though of course im not being objective.

Question 2 who has been by the better rider this season? I would say its Sanchez.

Though of course im not being objective.

so could.someone else please tell me who has been the better rider this season as i.am not objective enough to make a rational decision on that.

Maybe you should stop accusing everybody all the time of being fanboys. You seem obsessed with proving that everyone else is as narrow minded in their support of riders as you. unlike you some of us are actually capable of being objective.

If you seriously think that one needs massive bias to come to the conclusion that Sanchez has a better chance than mollema and nibali then you are totaly deluded.

Which "massive favourite"? Also, I would prefer you stop with the condescending bull**** that you type sometimes like "did you hit your head or something?" or "unlike you some of us are actually capable of being objective". It is totally unnecessary to prove your point.

Secondly, you are not capable of being objective as you are often quite bias about Samuel Sanchez and Contador. If you really think that I am one of the only bias ones on here then YOU are the person who is deluded. I will accuse people who ARE fanboys of being Fanboys. You are often a bit of a fanboy of some riders anyway and I think you should be open about it. It seems that the truth hurts you a bit Hitch which is why you need to attack someone. I openly admit you are a fanboy. Many people on here, like yourself can't admit that you can be one sometimes as well. Believe it or not, I also know a fair bit about cycling and have the ability to be objective. Also, considering my favourite rider is not competing and one of your favourites is, it is more likely that YOU would be biased than me.

Thirdly, I think it is reasonable to include Mollema and Nibali as favourites for Liege, greater than Samu. His results in Oman, San Luis, Tirreno, San Remo and Fleche point to someone who has very good form and there certainly is a case for him being a greater favourite than Samu whether you like it or not. Nibali's best results in Liege are an 8th and a 10th place which are quite impressive. Mollema's history in these races also points to someone who is very good in these races. He has shown some strong results at Fleche, Amstel, Pais Vasco and Ruta del Sol but also in past years has shown himself to be a high quality rider on the shorter climbs which are in races like Liege Bastogne Liege. Samu's results in Liege are better than both riders listed, but firstly they were over 8-9 years ago. That's not to say he won't do well or better than those other riders but to say "and wtf. saying sanchez has a better chance than mollema and nibali is not being objective. did you hit your head or something" is not really fair or true considering that Nibali and Mollema are both guys who have a very good podium chance as well.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Gilbert mended ftw.

 

[Cult Classics]

I see one bookie is offering 16s on Dan Martin for the podium, 60 for the win. I might take them up on the podium bet. He did well at Fleche Wallonne coming 6th despite starting the climb in terrible position, and he was 2nd in Lombardia last year (beating Rodriguez in the sprint) so he can go the distance in a monument race. Yes, Gilbert is more likely, but I think Martin is good value as an outside bet.

 

[Azabael]

I see one bookie is offering 16s on Dan Martin for the podium, 60 for the win. I might take them up on the podium bet. He did well at Fleche Wallonne coming 6th despite starting the climb in terrible position, and he was 2nd in Lombardia last year (beating Rodriguez in the sprint) so he can go the distance in a monument race. Yes, Gilbert is more likely, but I think Martin is good value as an outside bet.

I would say he's not a bad bet for the podium spot. Now we're on the subject anyway, I think Dan Martin has simular type of qualities to Mollema. Both great climbers, and both shown to have a good sprint uphill after a long and heavy day. They both have the ability to jump away on a climb as well. Martin's chance of winning: Jumping away on Côte de Saint-Nicolas. Martin's chance for the podium: Sticking with the best climbers of the day to be outsprinted by, say, Gilbert, Cunego or Vanendert.

 

[barmaher]

Van den Broeck will win a sprint against Voeckler and Cunego

Where did I say sprint?

 

[Arnout]

Sanchez rarely rides these races therefore it is not reasonable to say he will do well.


Which "massive favourite"? Also, I would prefer you stop with the condescending bull**** that you type sometimes like "did you hit your head or something?" or "unlike you some of us are actually capable of being objective". It is totally unnecessary to prove your point.

Secondly, you are not capable of being objective as you are often quite bias about Samuel Sanchez and Contador. If you really think that I am one of the only bias ones on here then YOU are the person who is deluded. I will accuse people who ARE fanboys of being Fanboys. You are often a bit of a fanboy of some riders anyway and I think you should be open about it. It seems that the truth hurts you a bit Hitch which is why you need to attack someone. I openly admit you are a fanboy. Many people on here, like yourself can't admit that you can be one sometimes as well. Believe it or not, I also know a fair bit about cycling and have the ability to be objective. Also, considering my favourite rider is not competing and one of your favourites is, it is more likely that YOU would be biased than me.

Thirdly, I think it is reasonable to include Mollema and Nibali as favourites for Liege, greater than Samu. His results in Oman, San Luis, Tirreno, San Remo and Fleche point to someone who has very good form and there certainly is a case for him being a greater favourite than Samu whether you like it or not. Nibali's best results in Liege are an 8th and a 10th place which are quite impressive. Mollema's history in these races also points to someone who is very good in these races. He has shown some strong results at Fleche, Amstel, Pais Vasco and Ruta del Sol but also in past years has shown himself to be a high quality rider on the shorter climbs which are in races like Liege Bastogne Liege. Samu's results in Liege are better than both riders listed, but firstly they were over 8-9 years ago. That's not to say he won't do well or better than those other riders but to say "and wtf. saying sanchez has a better chance than mollema and nibali is not being objective. did you hit your head or something" is not really fair or true considering that Nibali and Mollema are both guys who have a very good podium chance as well.

If we were talking on the basis of results 9 or 10 years ago I would agree. However, if you're basing yourself on the Tour of f. Oman and the Ruta del Sol, I'm gonna say Samu did an impressive Amstel, while having a cold that's meanwhile gone away, and he did win Euskal Herria, the commonly agreed best prep race for the hilly classics. Moreover, Mollema didn't ever show anything in LBL before, Sanchez did.

 

[cineteq]

If Nibali wins by blowing everyone away then yes he probably will have a right to claim that he is a better hilly classics rider than Sanchez. But if he merely podiums, then thats not going to close the gap.

That's very convenient, isn't it?
Actually, I don't think Sanchez is fit enough to win this race, based solely on his hesitation to participate. Otherwise I will be game on!

PS: Next stop, the Tour?

 

[taiwan]

Hitch is right, Sanchez > Nibali > Mollema. It's the premier hilly classic and Sanchez is the one that's proven at the very top level. Also, I'm not that out of touch with racing: WTF is Mollema even doing in the same sentence as these two?

 

[cineteq]

WTF is Mollema even doing in the same sentence as these two?

You're the one overhyping him

 

[Cult Classics]

I would say he's not a bad bet for the podium spot. Now we're on the subject anyway, I think Dan Martin has simular type of qualities to Mollema. Both great climbers, and both shown to have a good sprint uphill after a long and heavy day. They both have the ability to jump away on a climb as well. Martin's chance of winning: Jumping away on Côte de Saint-Nicolas. Martin's chance for the podium: Sticking with the best climbers of the day to be outsprinted by, say, Gilbert, Cunego or Vanendert.

I guess the difference between them though is that Mollema's never done anything in the monuments. Big difference between being competitive over 200km and being competitive over 260km - Mollema was in great form at the end of last season in the Italian races, and then was a complete non-factor in Lombardia. Martin's 2nd place there says he's still a step ahead of Mollema in the big one day races

 

[Parrulo]

I guess the difference between them though is that Mollema's never done anything in the monuments. Big difference between being competitive over 200km and being competitive over 260km - Mollema was in great form at the end of last season in the Italian races, and then was a complete non-factor in Lombardia. Martin's 2nd place there says he's still a step ahead of Mollema in the big one day races

AGR is 260k long as well

 

[Lanark]

I guess the difference between them though is that Mollema's never done anything in the monuments. Big difference between being competitive over 200km and being competitive over 260km - Mollema was in great form at the end of last season in the Italian races, and then was a complete non-factor in Lombardia. Martin's 2nd place there says he's still a step ahead of Mollema in the big one day races

Uh yeah, Mollema had a flat tire in the descend of the Sormano. It's ludicrous to draw any conclusions on that one race.

 

[theyoungest]

I guess the difference between them though is that Mollema's never done anything in the monuments. Big difference between being competitive over 200km and being competitive over 260km - Mollema was in great form at the end of last season in the Italian races, and then was a complete non-factor in Lombardia. Martin's 2nd place there says he's still a step ahead of Mollema in the big one day races

I agree that he's never done anything in a monument, but Lombardia might be a bad example, since he had a mechanical on the descent of the Sormano, and by the time he had a new bike he was already two minutes in arrears. The year before, he attacked on the Sormano, and then froze in the descent.

 

[El Pistolero]

Mollema doesn't belong there, end of story. I thought he was a joke option anyway.

 

[theyoungest]

Yeah, ridiculous indeed, the guy who got 3d in Pais Vasco, and did a top-10 in both Amstel and Fleche... it's stupid to think he'll be among the best riders in this race. Don't let your Dutchie love get the better of you again.

 

[dlwssonic]

Yeah, ridiculous indeed, the guy who got 3d in Pais Vasco, and did a top-10 in both Amstel and Fleche... it's stupid to think he'll be among the best riders in this race. Don't let your Dutchie love get the better of you again.

yeah for a top 10 but not for the win.

 

[Cult Classics]

AGR is 260k long as well

It's also not raced with anything like the intensity of Liege. I mean look how big the bunch was going onto the Keutenberg. Nobody attacks. Racing at Liege is much fiercer, and it's that plus the distance that makes it so hard.

 

[Lanark]

It's also not raced with anything like the intensity of Liege. I mean look how big the bunch was going onto the Keutenberg. Nobody attacks. Racing at Liege is much fiercer, and it's that plus the distance that makes it so hard.

But you were talking about Lombardia, a race that had an even weaker field than usual last year, and was raced with no intensity untill the last climb a couple of k before the finish. That's probably less of an indication for Liège than the Gold Race.

Not that Liège has been that hard and fierce in the last 10 years. Pretty much nothing happens there untill the last two climbs.

 

[Cult Classics]

But you were talking about Lombardia, a race that had an even weaker field than usual last year, and was raced with no intensity untill the last climb a couple of k before the finish. That's probably less of an indication for Liège than the Gold Race.

Not that Liège has been that hard and fierce in the last 10 years. Pretty much nothing happens there untill the last two climbs.

That's not true - Nibali went for it a long way off (about the distance Boonen went for it in Roubaix this year, actually), and riders chased after him like Gilbert and Fuglsang. The year before into Como the lead two got away a long way from the finish as well. Amstel is just a glorified sprint finish most of the time, I honestly don't see the point in its having 30 climbs. San Remo aside, these days you usually don't get more than about 4 riders in the winning move of a monument race. Liege had a period around 2006 where there were 10-12 riders and Valverde took it, but it's improved lately. Fleche and Amstel are rarely raced aggressively enough to be down to a few riders in the finale nowadays - the irony being it was much more likely in Amstel before they stuck the finish at the top of the Cauberg. I think the riders want the monument races more, and so they go at it harder. Amstel's a good race, yes, but it's not at the same level.

And I think Lombardia had a pretty good field last year. I was there at the start line in Milan and I certainly didn't feel I'd been short-changed of stars. Gilbert was there, Rodriguez and the Katusha lot, Fuglsang, Sanchez, Basso, Nibali, Cobo, Cunego, Van Avermaet, Mollema, Martin, Chavanel, Voeckler, Ballan. Not a bad haul really, is it? OK Evans had chucked the bike in the garage and the Schlecks couldn't be bothered anymore (I wouldn't take offence at that, Andy in particular can't be bothered with much beyond Liege and the Tour now), was it really missing much besides a banned Valverde or an injured Vino?

 

[Lanark]

That's not true - Nibali went for it a long way off (about the distance Boonen went for it in Roubaix this year, actually), and riders chased after him like Gilbert and Fuglsang. The year before into Como the lead two got away a long way from the finish as well. Amstel is just a glorified sprint finish most of the time, I honestly don't see the point in its having 30 climbs. San Remo aside, these days you usually don't get more than about 4 riders in the winning move of a monument race. Liege had a period around 2006 where there were 10-12 riders and Valverde took it, but it's improved lately. Fleche and Amstel are rarely raced aggressively enough to be down to a few riders in the finale nowadays - the irony being it was much more likely in Amstel before they stuck the finish at the top of the Cauberg. I think the riders want the monument races more, and so they go at it harder. Amstel's a good race, yes, but it's not at the same level.

Yeah, Nibali blew himself up in a suicide attempt, but that doesn't make it a hard race. There was a 30-men peloton before the last climb, that's almost all the guys that even care about the race anymore at that point. Not comparable to 2010, which had a much more difficult route in terrible weather conditions. But we were talking about Daniel Martin, and whether he had proven he could handle a really tough classic like Liège. The 2011 Lombardia doesn't prove that, that race isn't more difficult than your average Gold Race, and certainly a lot less difficult than Liège will be tomorrow.

And I think Lombardia had a pretty good field last year. I was there at the start line in Milan and I certainly didn't feel I'd been short-changed of stars. Gilbert was there, Rodriguez and the Katusha lot, Fuglsang, Sanchez, Basso, Nibali, Cobo, Cunego, Van Avermaet, Mollema, Martin, Chavanel, Voeckler, Ballan. Not a bad haul really, is it? OK Evans had chucked the bike in the garage and the Schlecks couldn't be bothered anymore (I wouldn't take offence at that, Andy in particular can't be bothered with much beyond Liege and the Tour now), was it really missing much besides a banned Valverde or an injured Vino?

It had a nice list of names at the start, so does the Criterium van Surhuisterveen. Having a good field means a lot more than big names, most of whom aren't motivated or in shape. Otherwise a second-rate joker like Zaugg couldn't win.

 

[Lanark]

Although don't get me wrong, if I were a rider I'd much rather win Lombardia than the Gold Race. Lombardia is a monument because of it's great history, but that doesn't mean it has a tougher field or is more difficult than other non-monument classics (the biggest difference with the AGR in route is probably that the climbs are longer, but that just takes a different kind of rider, not a better rider). Just look at last year: guys like Zaugg, Niemiec, Visconti and Chiarini in the top-10. Nothing wrong with those guys, but no way they'd ride top-10 in Liège-Bastogne-Liège.

 

[theyoungest]

yeah for a top 10 but not for the win.

Logically not all of these names can win, so this is just as much a prediction of the top-10.

Amstel's a good race, yes, but it's not at the same level.

Level of racing you mean? The level of racing at Amstel is much, much higher than at Lombardia. Purely because of its position on the calendar. Teams are struggling to scrape together a complete team for Lombardia, which is held when the form of most riders is on the way down, or already non-existent. And this comes from someone who thinks Lombardy is the most beautiful race on the calendar, and Amstel is slightly boring.

Which is why someone who still really wants it, like Dan Martin, can get a better result there than at the Amstel.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I voted Frandy just for fun.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

I wonder how De Gendt will fare in this race, any thoughts?

De Gendt won't start. I'm not sure what's going on, but he hasn't exactly been on a roll lately.

 

[Red Rick]

Logically not all of these names can win, so this is just as much a prediction of the top-10.


Level of racing you mean? The level of racing at Amstel is much, much higher than at Lombardia. Purely because of its position on the calendar. Teams are struggling to scrape together a complete team for Lombardia, which is held when the form of most riders is on the way down, or already non-existent. And this comes from someone who thinks Lombardy is the most beautiful race on the calendar, and Amstel is slightly boring.

Which is why someone who still really wants it, like Dan Martin, can get a better result there than at the Amstel.

yep, but the field will be better this year, because it has moved a couple of weeks