Who will win the 2015 tour de france?

[Piti4Podiums]

I'm going to go with Nibali for another win. Froome will most likely go for Giro-Vuelta, Contador will have a hard and heavily contested Giro in his legs and Quintana will lose a bunch of time on the cobbles+possible crosswinds.

Spoken like a Nibali fan, this looks quite alright, but as a Quintana fan i hope he can limit the damage on the cobbles, and it is not said that he will automatically lose time on crosswind stages If he gets his peak right in the mountains, Quintana should be able to at least compete with Nibbles. Close one.

 

[Cimber]

Who the hell knows. It will come down to the usual: the strongest of the few non-crashers left.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I voted Alberto but I hope he skips it tbh

 

[grizzlee]

Quintana for me.

Though i really think Dan Martin could podium this (WONT WIN IT THOUGH). Really suits him.
Only 13km TT
2 Murs
Lots of mountains that arent massively diffacult
Garmin would be better off sending Talansky to the Giro, 60km TT there Suits him much better than the TDF.

 

[PirazziAttacksVino]

Quintana for me.

Though i really think Dan Martin could podium this (WONT WIN IT THOUGH). Really suits him.
Only 13km TT
2 Murs
Lots of mountains that arent massively diffacult
Garmin would be better off sending Talansky to the Giro, 60km TT there Suits him much better than the TDF.

Dan Martin will never get through the stage with cobbles in 1 piece.

 

[JosephD]

While I doubt that he'll win, Rui Costa will probably like his chances of at least a top 10 after seeing this course.

Also agree that Dan Martin could have a solid ride here too.

 

[MikeTichondrius]

Looking at the route I can see Purito/Valverde holding the top spots at the end of the first week with the time bonuses and all. From there most stages won't favor Valverde so much but I see Purito in with a real shot. I still predict a Quintana win, but the so-called spanish armada will be all over until the end. Hope so too, the more, the merrier!

 

[BeagRigh]

Martin won his two monuments and his tour stage by being the freshest and most tactically astute at the end of a long (+200km) day.

Whilst I agree the lack of TT kms is good for him, I don't thing the short stages will do him any favours.

 

[DFA123]

I don't agree that this is a good route for Quintana. The lack of time trial will help him (although he's not that bad at TT anyway). But I don't see many big mountain stages where he can attack from long and gain minutes on the field.

There are, however, a lot of steep finishes and mountain stages with just one or two climbs, where he could lose time to more explosive riders. With time bonuses on offer that could spell trouble.

 

[DFA123]

Dan Martin will never get through the stage with cobbles in 1 piece.

A lot of the mountain stages are pretty similar to in the Vuelta this year - Martin still managed to lose minutes in several of those.

 

[Coat-O]

Valverde could actually win. No really hard mountain stages, time bonuses and I think he could do better on the cobbles than most. He just need a little training (doing the Flanderen).

 

[Coat-O]

Purito could also podium if he could find his 2012-2013 shape. He needs a season like Valverde's last year. Winning a lot of small races to build confidence. Best route for him in years.

 

[DFA123]

Valverde could actually win. No really hard mountain stages, time bonuses and I think he could do better on the cobbles than most. He just need a little training (doing the Flanderen).

I also think he could go very well, especially if Contador does the Giro (+ possibly Nibali and Froome), then he is a dark horse.

If they both enter, I'd back him to finish ahead of Quintana.

 

[SKSemtex]

I wonder what Kwiatko a OPQS thinks about this route?

 

[Afrank]

Hmm...who's going to win? I have no f#$@ing idea.

Quintana's, and probably Contador too, are the only ones I'm completely sure will ride it, still don't know if Nibs will ride Tour only or Giro-Tour. Froome now looking to do Giro-Vuelta.

I'll just say Contador/Nibali to win. By that I mean we get to see the battle for the win we missed out on this year.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Nibali should skip the Giro and do most of the cobble classics in spring:

SB
TA
MSR

E3
GW
RVV
P-R

(AGR)

Prep stage race
Tour

..
..

 

[staubsauger]

Froome possibly to the Giro as well as Nibali and Contador?
No long tt?
Mountainous route, but not especially suited to a mountain goat like Quintana?
Possibly weak competition as the big guns won't peak especially for the Tour next year?

This has Fabio Aru written all over it! If I was him I would just let Nibali go to the Giro if he intends to do so. Even if not: Cunego 2004 scenario -> Martinelli knows how to do it!

Aru isn't that far away climbing wise based on his Vuelta and should still improve until next summer.

Valverde strangely enough always just is a great classics rider and a very good climber only at the Vuelta! Don't get where Ricco based his "most talented" claim on, anyway wrong forum section. But I don't expect that aspect to change suddenly next Tour.

Horner? Well, yeah it's even possible. But it's the Tour. Everyone can go loco in Spain. Outside its a whole other story. But you've to leave it in mind as an eventuality.

Pinot. Nah I don't see him climbing out Aru if he's enough to refocus on the Tour.

Bardet. Hmm yeah if he improves he's a man for podium. But win it? Hmm. AG2R has plenty of decent riders for a grand tour. But none of them is strong enough to create a Simoni - Cunego situation which would be needed to make Bardet win this. Or Betancur. Or Pozzovivo. Basement Jaxx says never say never. But I'm not convinced.

Maybe Cunego himself should call Saronni, Cechinni and/or SkyItalia for a little go-back-to-the-zeros retro-show

Contador actually could still win with the Giro in his legs, just BECAUSE he lost out there against Froome and wasn't at 100%. If Astana is too stupid to play out the Nibali-Aru card. But hell ... Beppe has done it before, so ...

Actually there could as well happen something very very weird if all big guns including Nibali & Aru are at the Giro. That would leave the door just very very open for everyone.

Rui Costa and Mollema come to my mind in that scenario as a possible new Hesjedal.

In the end its pretty unpredictable. Nearly anything could happen with that route and the possible Giro focusing of the most big guns.

Aren't Quintana and Pozzo still pretty explosive for lightweight climbers?

Hmm maybe AG2R should still send all four and let them do back-to-back attacks until finally one successfully escapes into yellow.

 

[Angliru]

Valverde could actually win. No really hard mountain stages, time bonuses and I think he could do better on the cobbles than most. He just need a little training (doing the Flanderen).

That would certainly go over well here. I look forward to it happening just to see all the lemon sucking responses.

 

[MBotero]

Valverde could actually win this,perfect for him.Purito if he's back to his old level will also have his chances.I'm curious if Contador,Froome or Nibali will ride this one.

 

[Gloin22]

Dan Martin will never get through the stage with cobbles in 1 piece.

With Sep he could

Do it Cance - Andy ala 2010

But he'll probably fall ill somewhere over the three weeks..he always does..

 

[May0maniac]

Il Killer di Spoltore & Il Cobra would love this Tour...

 

[Kwibus]

With Sep he could

Do it Cance - Andy ala 2010

But he'll probably fall ill somewhere over the three weeks..he always does..

Sep rides for another team.

 

[Kwibus]

This is like a perfect Purito route, besides the cobbles that is.

Too bad that he's past his prime. Imo, despite al the bad luck this year I really think he's on his way down.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Sep rides for another team.

Change p for b and go for Langeveld.
Good guide too.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

This is like a perfect Purito route, besides the cobbles that is.

Too bad that he's past his prime. Imo, despite al the bad luck this year I really think he's on his way down.

TdF '15 final GC:

1. J-Rod
2. Moreno
3. Valverde