Who will win the 2015 tour de france?

[classicomano]

What's with 4 votes for Froome? Ain't no love for the dawg? Or most of the people think he'll try to beat his latest pal Contador in Giro and no Tour?

Because people here hate Froome and want him to fail.

 

[pigoonse]

So far it looks pretty even.

True, for now. But my guess is that there is still time for the Contador votes to skyrocket.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Nibs will defend his jersey after helping Aru to winning the pink one. AC to come second in both giro and tour. Froome on a distant 3rd place

 

[Escarabajo]

What's with 4 votes for Froome? Ain't no love for the dawg? Or most of the people think he'll try to beat his latest pal Contador in Giro and no Tour?

Silly hate in this forum. He is a better climber than most of the ones considered climbers!!

LOL.

 

[cineteq]

Nibs will defend his jersey after helping Aru to winning the pink one. AC to come second in both giro and tour. Froome on a distant 3rd place

That sounds about right.

Because people here hate Froome and want him to fail.

I love honesty.

 

[Angliru]

Part 1, +1
Part 2, at least on the paper. Remember the beginning of the Vuelta? Piti is going to double cross Quintana...

Must have been the alternative universe version of the Vuelta that you were watching. I don't recall any double cross.

 

[Jspear]

Nibs will defend his jersey after helping Aru to winning the pink one. AC to come second in both giro and tour. Froome on a distant 3rd place

I love your loyalty. Through all Astana's trials you still stand by their side.

 

[murali]

this is going to be AC's chance to regain his honor.
the route looks like a test of who has the worst bad day.

 

[Tonton]

Must have been the alternative universe version of the Vuelta that you were watching. I don't recall any double cross.

Stage 6 showed that Valverde was in it for himself. Not there to help Quintana. Huy or Mur de Bretagne: he'll try.

 

[ILovecycling]

Stage 6 showed that Valverde was in it for himself. Not there to help Quintana. Huy or Mur de Bretagne: he'll try.

doesnt matter, as he will be demolished by nairito later on.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I love how Alberto is now the #1 favorite in the poll for il Giro and for TDF

 

[Jazasz]

Stage 6 showed that Valverde was in it for himself. Not there to help Quintana. Huy or Mur de Bretagne: he'll try.

This is the stage where he attacked, towed everyone for a while, then went on to win right?

That is team tactics, not betrayal. When you have 2 riders that other teams must respect you let one of them attack early to force the other contenders to cover. This weakens them for when the other guy is ready to go. (schlecks and sastre V. evans 2008). When Quintana was used to attack early in the 2013 Tour (think it was stage 9) people didn't call it betrayal.

This should allow Quintana to save energy as the other contenders would have to pull back to Valverde. Its not Valverde's fault if he was so strong or the finish didn't suit Quintana enough that Valverde took the stage win anyway.

 

[Tonton]

This is the stage where he attacked, towed everyone for a while, then went on to win right?

That is team tactics, not betrayal. When you have 2 riders that other teams must respect you let one of them attack early to force the other contenders to cover. This weakens them for when the other guy is ready to go. (schlecks and sastre V. evans 2008). When Quintana was used to attack early in the 2013 Tour (think it was stage 9) people didn't call it betrayal.

This should allow Quintana to save energy as the other contenders would have to pull back to Valverde. Its not Valverde's fault if he was so strong or the finish didn't suit Quintana enough that Valverde took the stage win anyway.

Read your post: you contradict yourself. These guys know the course: if the finish didn't suit Quintana, why plan the one-two punch? Nonsense.

As you wrote, Valverde towed everyone...well, except his team leader.

 

[Jazasz]

\
As you wrote, Valverde towed everyone...well, except his team leader.

What is this nonsense? Quintana had wheels to follow the whole time. Quintana was only dropped by his rivals in the sprint when Froome really picked it up with <500m to go. It would of been foolish for Valverde/Movistar to have Valverde not contest the sprint just because Quintana isn't much of a sprinter.

 

[Tonton]

What is this nonsense? Quintana had wheels to follow the whole time. Quintana was only dropped by his rivals in the sprint when Froome really picked it up with <500m to go. It would of been foolish for Valverde/Movistar to have Valverde not contest the sprint just because Quintana isn't much of a sprinter.

Purito took off with 700m to go, Valverde made the effort to catch up: never once did he look behind to see where Quitana was. With 300m left, he could have eased up, do his Valverde classic wheelsucking and give Quintana a (small) chance to come back and not lose time on Dawg and Bertie. Instead, he kept on going, kept dragging Dawg and Bertie away from Quintana. The sprint started with about 150m to go. Not 500. He took off and won.

He was in it (the Vuelta) for himself. You may disagree, change your story/justification a few more times. Wait until July

 

[Jazasz]

Purito took off with 700m to go, Valverde made the effort to catch up: never once did he look behind to see where Quitana was. With 300m left, he could have eased up, do his Valverde classic wheelsucking and give Quintana a (small) chance to come back and not lose time on Dawg and Bertie. Instead, he kept on going, kept dragging Dawg and Bertie away from Quintana. The sprint started with about 150m to go. Not 500. He took off and won.

He was in it (the Vuelta) for himself. You may disagree, change your story/justification a few more times. Wait until July

Quintana had Froomes wheel after Puritio took off until the time the group reformed. With 300m to go and Valverde feeling good it would of been a bad move to sacrifice the stage win to maybe save Quintana 1 second.

edit: And seriously over the course of the climb Valverde put a lot of time on the front with Quintana on his wheel. He sacrificed himself plenty, its not his fault he had great legs that day and Quintana didn't. If he lets himself lose time just because Quintana might lose a couple seconds that only weakens the power of their double pronged attack in the future. There are more ways to ride as a team than the sky train.

 

[Angliru]

This is the stage where he attacked, towed everyone for a while, then went on to win right?

That is team tactics, not betrayal. When you have 2 riders that other teams must respect you let one of them attack early to force the other contenders to cover. This weakens them for when the other guy is ready to go. (schlecks and sastre V. evans 2008). When Quintana was used to attack early in the 2013 Tour (think it was stage 9) people didn't call it betrayal.

This should allow Quintana to save energy as the other contenders would have to pull back to Valverde. Its not Valverde's fault if he was so strong or the finish didn't suit Quintana enough that Valverde took the stage win anyway.

If I recall correctly he pulled for maybe 3/4 of the final climb responding to attacks and eventually simply riding everyone off of his wheel to take the stage win. It would have been foolish for Movistar to have both of their gc contenders lose time when it could be avoided. I'm quite certain that it wasn't Valverde's singular role to just babysit Quintana.

 

[Tonton]

If I recall correctly he pulled for maybe 3/4 of the final climb responding to attacks and eventually simply riding everyone off of his wheel to take the stage win. It would have been foolish for Movistar to have both of their gc contenders lose time when it could be avoided. I'm quite certain that it wasn't Valverde's singular role to just babysit Quintana.

Well that was the party line, wasn't it? And Valverde made sure to reiterate the party line in his post race interview. Valverde did pull, he was the strongest on the day; so was Froome the day he "attacked" Wiggo, when the party line was that Wiggo was the leader.

So either it was poorly executed Team tactics (which I doubt), or Valverde in it for himself (which I believe), or it wasn't Valverde's singular role to just babysit Quintana as you stated. That means the party line from Movistar was a misrepresentation or a lie, and if I were Quintana, I would bail out asap: because it will be the same party line before the next TdF. It has happened before (i.e. in '86), and it will happen again that one tries to double cross the anointed Team leader. At the Vuelta (and I just watched the video one more time), he couldn't care less where the Team leader was. He didn't look. It was all about him. With Friends like him Nairito, who needs ennemies...

 

[Jspear]

Well that was the party line, wasn't it? And Valverde made sure to reiterate the party line in his post race interview. Valverde did pull, he was the strongest on the day; so was Froome the day he "attacked" Wiggo, when the party line was that Wiggo was the leader.

So either it was poorly executed Team tactics (which I doubt), or Valverde in it for himself (which I believe), or it wasn't Valverde's singular role to just babysit Quintana as you stated. That means the party line from Movistar was a misrepresentation or a lie, and if I were Quintana, I would bail out asap: because it will be the same party line before the next TdF. It has happened before (i.e. in '86), and it will happen again that one tries to double cross the anointed Team leader. At the Vuelta (and I just watched the video one more time), he couldn't care less where the Team leader was. He didn't look. It was all about him. With Friends like him Nairito, who needs ennemies...

He should not bail out. Valverde is only getting older and Quintana hasn't even reached his peak yet. Quintana will have no problem showing who is strongest on the road. If he were to leave he would have to get used to a new environment and most likely but heads with someone else for leadership. He should stay put.

 

[Angliru]

Well that was the party line, wasn't it? And Valverde made sure to reiterate the party line in his post race interview. Valverde did pull, he was the strongest on the day; so was Froome the day he "attacked" Wiggo, when the party line was that Wiggo was the leader.

So either it was poorly executed Team tactics (which I doubt), or Valverde in it for himself (which I believe), or it wasn't Valverde's singular role to just babysit Quintana as you stated. That means the party line from Movistar was a misrepresentation or a lie, and if I were Quintana, I would bail out asap: because it will be the same party line before the next TdF. It has happened before (i.e. in '86), and it will happen again that one tries to double cross the anointed Team leader. At the Vuelta (and I just watched the video one more time), he couldn't care less where the Team leader was. He didn't look. It was all about him. With Friends like him Nairito, who needs ennemies...

How does anything that occurred in 1986 have any effect on 2014? Let's examine that stage though. Valverde, a rider with a rep for spending minimal time in the wind spends most of the length of the final climb on the front of the group of gc contenders, uncharacteristically chasing down attacks. And you say it was all about him? Just doesn't add up.

 

[lebbegehtweider]

Obiviously any of the 4 top riders can win this tour.

The little ITTs don't helps Froome, but if he can climb as he did in 2013 he should be more or less on the level of Contador. However, if I'm forced to decide between these two, I would rather choose Contador.

Nibali is nearly as good as these two in the mountains, but will loose some time. Thus he needs to destroy the field in the cobblestone stage again. If he can, he is for sure one of the contender for the overall win, but every race is different and I doubt that he achieve the same on the cobblestone next year.

It is difficult to compare the mountain form of Contador and Quintana. However we can assume that they are more or less on the same level. Quintana is young and can still improve, but considering the (short) ITT, the cobbles, the steep short hills, and that it is Contador we are talking about, I would choose Contador.

However if Contador really rides the Giro, and it seems so at the moment, Quintana is the favorite for me.

Btw: I do not understand, why some people think, the route would not suite Quintana. The mountains of the 2015 tour are as hard as the 2013 mountains, where Quintana was able to destroy the field and reached a comfortable 2 place behind the unbeatable Froome. Of this year are some cobbles but nearly no ITT.

 

[damian13ster]

Minus the cobbles (and they seem easier than this season). This route is almost perfect for Quintana.

Was there ever any GT in which Quintana could actually gain times on all the favorites in TTs? (if Movistar performs like they can in TTT)

 

[Miburo]

Obiviously any of the 4 top riders can win this tour.

The little ITTs don't helps Froome, but if he can climb as he did in 2013 he should be more or less on the level of Contador. However, if I'm forced to decide between these two, I would rather choose Contador.

Nibali is nearly as good as these two in the mountains, but will loose some time. Thus he needs to destroy the field in the cobblestone stage again. If he can, he is for sure one of the contender for the overall win, but every race is different and I doubt that he achieve the same on the cobblestone next year.

It is difficult to compare the mountain form of Contador and Quintana. However we can assume that they are more or less on the same level. Quintana is young and can still improve, but considering the (short) ITT, the cobbles, the steep short hills, and that it is Contador we are talking about, I would choose Contador.

However if Contador really rides the Giro, and it seems so at the moment, Quintana is the favorite for me.

Btw: I do not understand, why some people think, the route would not suite Quintana. The mountains of the 2015 tour are as hard as the 2013 mountains, where Quintana was able to destroy the field and reached a comfortable 2 place behind the unbeatable Froome. Of this year are some cobbles but nearly no ITT.

When did he destroy the field? Purito was always with him

 

[BigMac]

Wouldn't be surprised if Nairo Quintana is sent to do the Giro again. It's just a matter of Valverde fancying the [Tour's] route or not, which I believe he does. It will be Valverde's last shot at the Tour.

 

[staubsauger]

Wouldn't be surprised if Nairo Quintana is sent to do the Giro again. It's just a matter of Valverde fancying the [Tour's] route or not, which I believe he does. It will be Valverde's last shot at the Tour.

Valverde hasn't got the quality to win a tour at all! He showed it multiple times.