Tour de France Who will win the 2023 Tour De France GC? Rest Day Poll 2

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Who will win the Tour

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Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
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Interesting dynamics of the 1st week changed into a complete stalemate in the 2nd. The two contenders are in a deadlock during mountain stages. Vinge lacks confidence to try attacking Pogacar, who himself can't create more than a few seconds of a gap. I have no idea what happens in the 3rd week - I was actually more confident in Pogacar one week ago. Judging by mountains stalemate it looks like the ITT can actually decide it. Apparently UAE's setup is better and maybe fresh bazooka 30 min effort will suit Pogacar more? Still, the TT gap likely won't be big and Vinge has those 10 seconds after all. Then Loze and JV's last try to break Pogacar (?) - they may ride more defensively if Vinge adds more seconds during the TT. I wouldn't neglect Vosges stage - cumulated fatigue and difficult combo of climbs at the end may prove more decisive than Loze (plus there will be fireworks for a simple reason that it's the last shot before Paris). I predict Pogacar but it's more like wishful thinking and maybe hoping for his TT advantage. Vinge's chances are looking equally good.
 
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SHAD0W93

SHAD0W93

Aug 13, 2011
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I think Pog will win but in order for that to happen he needs the lead on Weds or within 3 seconds. UAE has shown to be a lot stronger team so far then many gave them credit for and have worked Jumbo over.
 
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O

ontheroad

Oct 10, 2012
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If Pogacar doesn't get ahead of or sufficeintly close to Vingegaard (to bring bonus seconds into play) after the TT, then I think Vingegaard will just stay glued to Pogs wheel all the way to Paris. It will kill the race as a spectacle. However I expect Pog to take 20-30 secs on the TT which will then force Vingegaard into having to attack. I still think one or either (and my prediction is Pogacar) will drop the other on Col de la Loze as the chaser will have to attack.
 
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jaylew

jaylew

Mar 19, 2009
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I really have no idea (which should have been an option) but I've got it at 52% JV to 48% Pog, mostly because JV already has a lead however small it may be. There just isn't much between the two but I'm hoping one makes a difference on Wednesday rather than in the TT.
 
hfer07

hfer07

Mar 17, 2009
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at this point it could go either way....... :nomouth:
Either Vingegaard puts a good buffer in the TT heading to the final MTF - but if can't then Poga can well pull a 2020-Roglic type of upset if Vingegaard cracks a bit....
 
Põhja Konn

Põhja Konn

Sep 1, 2012
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Vingegaard has a super high consistent level, whereas Pogacar is more likely to pull an absolute monster performance out of his hat in the third week, if their history is anything to go by. Really I've got no idea who wins, but that greater unpredictability makes me lean slightly towards Pog.
 
Gigs_98

Gigs_98

Feb 18, 2015
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I don't get why people are still pointing at the Col de la Loze as Pogacars big weakpoint. Yeah he wasn't great there in 2020, but he was probably worse a day later on a low altitude, steep and short climb. People only fixate on the Col de la Loze result because that actually amounted to a time loss.

In this Tour so far the mountain stages Vingegaard looked the best on were the Laruns stage and today, while Pogacar looked a bit better on Puy de Dome, the Grand Colombier, the Joux Plane and the Tourmalet stage. The whole Col de la Loze narrative formed based on the assumption that Vingegaard is better on longer climbs, higher altitude and generally harder stages. So that's literally the exact opposite of how this Tour has played out so far. Looking at this Tour alone one should really predict the Col de la Loze stage to be the one favoring Pogacar and the Vosges stage to favor Vingegaard. I don't think that's the correct takeaway either. I think the correct takaway is that the kind of mountain stage really doesn't matter a lot and it's only about who has the best legs.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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Gigs_98 said:
I don't get why people are still pointing at the Col de la Loze as Pogacars big weakpoint. Yeah he wasn't great there in 2020, but he was probably worse a day later on a low altitude, steep and short climb. People only fixate on the Col de la Loze result because that actually amounted to a time loss.

In this Tour so far the mountain stages Vingegaard looked the best on were the Laruns stage and today, while Pogacar looked a bit better on Puy de Dome, the Grand Colombier, the Joux Plane and the Tourmalet stage. The whole Col de la Loze narrative formed based on the assumption that Vingegaard is better on longer climbs, higher altitude and generally harder stages. So that's literally the exact opposite of how this Tour has played out so far. Looking at this Tour alone one should really predict the Col de la Loze stage to be the one favoring Pogacar and the Vosges stage to favor Vingegaard. I don't think that's the correct takeaway either. I think the correct takaway is that the kind of mountain stage really doesn't matter a lot and it's only about who has the best legs.
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Pogacar being favored by 5 minute splits at the end of a mountain should hardly be controversial. I get disagreeing with fixating on a single data point, but I don't think the data points to Pogacar being his best on a super long climb.
 
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