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Who will win the 2023 Vuelta a España

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Who will win?

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Roglic is at this stage of his career a tough-to-beat elder statesman, who's ceiling is not as high as the very best in business, but who has no real weakness as long as he stays healthy and is usually very consistent.

The only one in this Vuelta startlist who could outclass him is Vingegaard, but he has a gruelling Tour in his legs and I would be very surprised if he can reach a level anywhere near to that shown in July. Nothing he did at the Tour indicated he was leaving something in reserve for the Vuelta. Also doing back-to-back GT-s is a new expierence for Vingegaard and it's very doubtful either himself or his team can be as certain about his numbers and form curve as they were during the Tour. Because of this I for now favour Roglic over him .

Remco is also very consistent, but could just lack the top end climbing ability needed to beat the Jumbo duo. Flat TT should give him an advantage, but the TTT on the other hand likely favours Jumbo guys. There is still some uncertainty surrounding the real reach of his abilities in a 3 week race, due to how the ones he has done have panned out so far, but for me he is a slight underdog going in.

Ayuso is a wild-card and the likes Mas and Thomas cannot be counted out. Specially the latter can be very dangerous, but somehow always flies under the radar in previews like this.
better team than for the tour

Eichel said that Cian is in "Bombenform".

This is a better team that at the Tour.

It may be possible that Remco is isolated with still 6 Boras in the bunch.
I would guess priorities are the following:

Win a stage in the first week (probably break in the mountains)

Try to grab the red jersey with such a break (Kämna, Higuita or Buchmann)

Keep Cian and Vlasov in or around the Top 10 for the second half

Win more stages

(fight for the mountain classification with Higuita)

Bring a guy into the Top 8


I think this could be the team of the Vuelta after the team of the winner. If they don't chain the team to the GC ambitions they could win multiple stages.

Outside of Vlasov and Kämna most riders didn't face a lot in preparation so it's also a bit of a blackbox how good Buchmann, Denz and Higuita actually are. I would bet that Zwiehoff is in good shape he really had a great year up until now.
They really went all in with the branding

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Vingegaard's been at home on the Chesterfield, playing with his kid and eating red sausage (when he's not been down the local old people's home), so he's not in top shape (just look at the past couple of years form for him post-Tour).

Edit -add - if Vingegaard wins this TT, I'll ask for the entire thread to be put in the Clinic section!
(Quote!)The Danish dominator chose to spend those five weeks at home with family rather than living and breathing the thin air of the team’s chosen summer altitude retreat on Tignes.(end quote!)
There you go, on the Chesterfield, playing with his kid etc etc. Of course he'll turn up and blow everyone away!:)
In further regards to jumbo giving potential preference to Vingegaard or Roglic, I will say this: the team may feel slightly safer with Roglic being a minute in red heading into week 3 rather than Vingegaard, because Roglic has performed in back to back grand tours before. It's slightly uncharted territory for Jonas.
I'm not sure about that. Roglič doesn't make me feel safe until he crosses the finish line (the last day). I was even nervous in the last Giro stage when he held champagne for god sake.