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Tour de France Who will win the 2024 Tour de France? Pre-race poll.

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Who will win the 2024 Tour de France?

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S

shadowrider

May 18, 2023
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Did anyone realize that all the winners of the last NINE editions of the TDF will be at the start this year. 2015 - 2023 !!! With several winners of Giro and Vuelta and young up-and-coming riders. This will be the strongest TDF(field) of all time. With the exception of Froome :D
But of course, that doesn't mean that we will see the best or hardest fought TDF ever. Certainly not if Pogacar will ride the Tour during three weeks with his Giro form. Or if Vingegaard were miraculously in top form.
If that is the case with only one of the two riders, we will have a boring Tour. If both are in topshape, we'll have a nice battle. The other opponents being destroyed.
**** Pogacar (if not fading)
*** Roglic, Vingegaard (if at 99% at the start)
** Rodriguez
* Jorgenson, Bernal, Evenepoel
 
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Hugo Koblet

Hugo Koblet

May 9, 2010
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I'm surprised that Pogacar is rated that much higher than Vingegaard. To me, they're about equal favorites to win the Tour. It's almost impossible to see anyone else winning, so perhaps we should instead discuss who's the most likely to podium, but now that everyone else has already handed out stars based on winning chances, I'll do that as well:

***** Pogacar, Vingegaard
****
*** Roglic, A. Yates, Almeida, Ayuso
** Evenepoel, Rodriguez, Jorgenson
* Mas, Bernal, Hindley, Vlasov, Carapaz etc.
 
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Bolder

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Krzysztof_O said:
I'm curious what will be Primoz's form. There have been also opinions (mine included) that this is his best Tour shot (till the end of career), considering Vingo's problems and Pogacar's double GT effort. He wasn't convincing in the Dauphine and clearly should improve considerably. We will see, I guess.
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This is why I pick him to win.

To be fair, he has about 10% of votes cast, so giving him a 10% chance of winning sounds right. I think he will either crash out or finish first or second. But hoping for a win to round out his legacy.
 
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Berflamand

Jan 29, 2020
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Rackham said:
Imagine stage 3... i.e. 230km with a bunch sprint into Turin & absolutely everyone with all their sprinters, sprint teams, GC leaders (multiple per team) & GC teams who'll want to be at the front.

Sounds great. What could ever go wrong.
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Isn't that always the case for the first sprint stages in the Tour?

And isn't the fact that it is 230km long (which should put at least a little fatigue in the peloton) and that it comes after two hard stages where an initial pecking order might be established actually beneficial to mitigate the risks that come with first sprint stages at the Tour?
 
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Moose McKnuckles

Moose McKnuckles

Nov 7, 2009
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Pog could have a monster race like at Giro and people will conclude that he's likely burned himself out or started to fade at the end.
Roglic survives to squeeze out a win by a whisker of hair on his arse and people will say he's building form for a likely "Rog stomp" or whatever at the Tour.

Nothing against Rog, he's great. Fans are funny tho.
 
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CyclistAbi

May 29, 2019
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Miha81 said:
But you have to admit that UAE domestiques climbing in Tour de Suisse was more convincing than anything that Rogla and his team produced in June.
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In my opinion Dauphiné was raced on a higher level then ToS and at Dauphiné we have seen first resemblance of a team that can challenge UAE at the Tour successfully. They still have to improve slightly but i don't worry about Vlasov and hopefully Hindley too for being able to cope with Yates and Almeida.

Based on performances seen at Tour de Suisse or CdD it is hard to see any other rider than on form Vinge being able to keep up with Pogi.
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Jonas in my opinion has no real chance at this Tour edition. The injuries involved were too serious and he needs more time, to get back into winning form.

If UAE won't be able to make a significant difference by the 3rd week then healthy Rogla will probably have his chance if he is on form.
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Obviously Rogla and Bora will top Pogi and UAE deeper into the race, why waste effort beforehand. I just hope that Rogla doesn't plan to go under 4s as i don't find that all that healthy.
 
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Rackham

Rackham

Jul 16, 2015
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Berflamand said:
Isn't that always the case for the first sprint stages in the Tour?

And isn't the fact that it is 230km long (which should put at least a little fatigue in the peloton) and that it comes after two hard stages where an initial pecking order might be established actually beneficial to mitigate the risks that come with first sprint stages at the Tour?
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Maybe. I have no idea.

But stage 3 of the Tour has been fatal for my guy before, so "fingers crossed" everything goes okay.
 
Froome

Froome

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CyclistAbi said:
In my opinion Dauphiné was raced on a higher level then ToS and at Dauphiné we have seen first resemblance of a team that can challenge UAE at the Tour successfully. They still have to improve slightly but i don't worry about Vlasov and hopefully Hindley too for being able to cope with Yates and Almeida.



Jonas in my opinion has no real chance at this Tour edition. The injuries involved were too serious and he needs more time, to get back into winning form.



Obviously Rogla and Bora will top Pogi and UAE deeper into the race, why waste effort beforehand. I just hope that Rogla doesn't plan to go under 4s as i don't find that all that healthy.
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Saying Dauphiné was raced at a higher level than Tour de Suisse is also a bit exaggerated. I think yates and Almeida were in a similar level to what Carlitos Rodriguez, Jorgenson and Roglic (except the last stage) showed.

As far as Jonas issue, better wait 2 weeks, to see what will happen before take those conclusions. Only Visma knows the reality.
 
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CyclistAbi

May 29, 2019
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Froome said:
Saying Dauphiné was raced at a higher level than Tour de Suisse is also a bit exaggerated. I think yates and Almeida were in a similar level to what Carlitos Rodriguez, Jorgenson and Roglic (except the last stage) showed.
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In my opinion it was a different league of racing, still UAE can easily prove me wrong. That is for Pogi doms to finish ahead in GC of leaders of other teams, at the Tour 2024. If that happens then the only thing we should do is to congratulate them, for sweeping the podium.

As far as Jonas issue, better wait 2 weeks, to see what will happen before take those conclusions. Only Visma knows the reality.
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I agree. Now it's up to Jonas, i only expressed my opinion and the way i see it. On top of that i don't really mind if Jonas would come back 100% and even if he wins Tour 2024. That would be something to admire and to congratulate.
 
Froome

Froome

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CyclistAbi said:
In my opinion it was a different league of racing, still UAE can easily prove me wrong. That is for Pogi doms to finish ahead in GC of leaders of other teams, at the Tour 2024. If that happens then the only thing we should do is to congratulate them, for sweeping the podium.



I agree. Now it's up to Jonas, i only expressed my opinion and the way i see it. On top of that i don't really mind if Jonas would come back 100% and even if he wins Tour 2024. That would be something to admire and to congratulate.
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I'm not saying the Emirates will do podium in the Tour or Emirates will dominate the Tour, i just think the level they showed at Tour de Suisse was good, similar to the level of the best riders on Dauphiné.

The competition will be different in the Tour, it would be silly for me saying that Almeida or yates have more chances of doing podium than Roglic, since Roglic is better than them in normal conditions. I also consider Hindley better than Almeida and Yates, so no, i don't think those guys from Emirates will do podium. Remco will also be good at the Tour and be a contender for the podium, and i also think he is better than those guys from emirates.

Talking about Visma, only Jonas has the chance of doing podium or winning the Tour if things come in the right direction for him.
Kuss and Jorgenson will be just there to work. I even doubt Jorgenson can be consistent during 3 weeks, like he himself said.
 
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ingsve

ingsve

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The ideal scenario for a great race, which I could actually see happening, is that the top 4 favourites all struggle enough to bring them down to a similar level as their other main rivals.

Vingegaard is already a questionmark and hopefully he will still start even if his shape is less than that of a world beater.
Pogacar is on the double and there is at least a fair chance that this will affect him in some way.
Roglic has sufferend crashes and looked very beatable in Dauphine.
Same with Evenepoel who also looked nothing like a world beater in Dauphine.

The main issue with their scenario is that the teams of the top 4 riders are still very strong so that might still give an advantage to these four riders. Then again Ineos looks like they will have a very strong climbing team as well.
 
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CyclistAbi

May 29, 2019
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Froome said:
I'm not saying the Emirates will do podium in the Tour or Emirates will dominate the Tour, i just think the level they showed at Tour de Suisse was good, similar to the level of the best riders on Dauphiné.
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I agree that the level presented by the two UAE riders was good but i don't see on how ToS could stack up against Dauphiné in terms of being in the same league. The depth of the field was just higher at the Dauphiné and the route was certainly not worse.

Adam didn't even shave.

The competition will be different in the Tour, it would be silly for me saying that Almeida or yates have more chances of doing podium than Roglic, since Roglic is more better than them in normal conditions.
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I have seen some people spreading such claims in the ToS thread, though, that is on why i mentioned it.
 
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