Who will win the Giro 2018?

[Red Rick]

Re:

Froome has ridden the Giro before. Last time he was disqualified for holding on to a moto(?). But of course, unlike with Nibali that isn't constantly mentioned...

We really need to dig up that LS summary of that Giro that actually treats Froome like the pre race favorite

 

[rghysens]

Froome

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Froome in his so mediocre shape will win this bike race. 2. Dumo, 3. Pinot.

 

[dacooley]

still surprised what a giant credit people give to lopez and pinot. 100% sure froome and dimoulin will be having a big leap of shape compared to Tour of alps and LBL respectively.

 

[movingtarget]

Probably Froome but bad weather won't help him. Sudden changes in temperature or a Giro that is wet and cold like some other recent editions won't be good for asthmatics.............would like to see Pinot make the podium but I am not convinced it will happen. Dumoulin will have to measure his efforts like last year and avoid stomach problems but I expect him to give Froome a good fight.

 

[rghysens]

Re:

Froome has ridden the Giro before. Last time he was disqualified for holding on to a moto(?). But of course, unlike with Nibali that isn't constantly mentioned...

But on his penultimate participation to date he showed his pedigree while climbing San Luca near Bologna.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Froome has ridden the Giro before. Last time he was disqualified for holding on to a moto(?). But of course, unlike with Nibali that isn't constantly mentioned...

But on his penultimate participation to date he showed his pedigree while climbing San Luca near Bologna.

Back in the glory days, when belgian commentators called him "Froom-uh"

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

Froome has ridden the Giro before. Last time he was disqualified for holding on to a moto(?). But of course, unlike with Nibali that isn't constantly mentioned...

But on his penultimate participation to date he showed his pedigree while climbing San Luca near Bologna.

Back in the glory days, when belgian commentators called him "Froom-uh"

He finished 36th in 2009 and was disqualified in 2010. Let's see if he has gotten any better since then.

 

[The Hegelian]

I'm gonna go with, 1. Pinot 2. Poels 3. Aru.

If Froome is struggling early on, they need to keep Poels up there on GC and not bust a gut dragging Froome around for the sake of getting him round, scuppering his own chances. Poels I think will have a good last week when it matters.

I think there's something in this. i.e. at the first sign of trouble, the mentality of 'looking to the tdf' will drop like a stone for Sky and Froome. It's in their DNA. I highly doubt that they're as committed and prepared as they are for their last few tdf's. They'll try and get the win but if the chips start falling even a little bit the wrong way, they will bail.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Poels was in poor shape in LBL. Henao is more likely as substitute leader.

 

[AlexNYC]

Froome is still the favorite, but he's showing obvious, if slight, signs of decline over the last year. That could very well be just enough for someone else to beat him. I think Pinot is going to be tantalizingly close in this route, but he's not that much better than Dumoulin in the mountains to make up what he's going to lose to him in the ITT.

I would love to be wrong, but I don't see Chavez winning. Of course, he could have the best race of his life and win, but that's a very high bar.

I'd also be very happy with a Lopez win, but he's still too much on an unknown quantity to be my top pick in a GT with such a great field.

 

[Laplaz]

Would love to see Formolo performing well, altough i fear the ITT will kill his chances for a Top 5. He impressed me in LBL so maybe he can finally step up.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I'm really surprised to see Pinot getting this many votes. I have a real hard time seeing him win. Froome is obviously the favorite and Dumoulin was great last year. If anyone is to cause an upset, it's probably Lopez who has a much heigher celing in the climbing department than Pinot. Basically, there's not a single thing that Pinot does better than anyone - there will always be a better climber and a better time trialist.

 

[Oude Geuze]

I’m extremely exited for the giro this year, last year was awesome (it usually is the best GT imo) and this year we also get Froome. So many potential winners, I think the racing will be exciting all the way. Probably Froome will be able to win it, barely, after Dumoulin has one off day in the mountains and loosing his maglia rosa that he will gain from 1. ITT and hold until 3rd week. Pinot 3rd. Lopez 6th (but probably a couple of stages

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Re:

I'm really surprised to see Pinot getting this many votes. I have a real hard time seeing him win. Froome is obviously the favorite and Dumoulin was great last year. If anyone is to cause an upset, it's probably Lopez who has a much heigher celing in the climbing department than Pinot. Basically, there's not a single thing that Pinot does better than anyone - there will always be a better climber and a better time trialist.

We are being nice to Pinot so Tonton doesn't ban us if we say something worth a ban during the race. :lol: :lol:

 

[OlavEH]

I see that Aru doesn't have many votes. His results this season haven't exactly been impressing, but are there any other reason why he shouldn't be one of the favorites? Sickness or injury or something like that?

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

I'm really surprised to see Pinot getting this many votes. I have a real hard time seeing him win. Froome is obviously the favorite and Dumoulin was great last year. If anyone is to cause an upset, it's probably Lopez who has a much heigher celing in the climbing department than Pinot. Basically, there's not a single thing that Pinot does better than anyone - there will always be a better climber and a better time trialist.

Can only speak for myself but I don't think Pinot has to be the best climber or best TTer. I expect him to be a better climber than the best TTer and a better TTer than the best climber and that may very well be enough to win.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Pinot is just a really strong rider and a fighter. While Lopez has a higher ceiling, I doubt that will have much to say, as I still see him as being too inconsistent over three weeks. Pinot is a better climber now than he was a couple of years ago (when his ITT was good). He's consistent and has made a living of taking bonus seconds on the line, which could help him gain time on Froome and Dumoulin if he's unable to simply drop them.

For me, the biggest ask is how 'bad' Pinot will be in the time trial and whether his team is a complete mess. If he can come anywhere close to Froome and Dumoulin in the TT, he might very well take it all.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

I'm really surprised to see Pinot getting this many votes. I have a real hard time seeing him win. Froome is obviously the favorite and Dumoulin was great last year. If anyone is to cause an upset, it's probably Lopez who has a much heigher celing in the climbing department than Pinot. Basically, there's not a single thing that Pinot does better than anyone - there will always be a better climber and a better time trialist.

Can only speak for myself but I don't think Pinot has to be the best climber or best TTer. I expect him to be a better climber than the best TTer and a better TTer than the best climber and that may very well be enough to win.

in other words, he ought to destroy all anti-tt'ers in time trials and at the same time to be lucky enough to perfectly cooperate with the best climbers to put as much time as possible into strong tt'ers. really tough mission.

 

[Laplaz]

Re:

Pinot is just a really strong rider and a fighter. While Lopez has a higher ceiling, I doubt that will have much to say, as I still see him as being too inconsistent over three weeks. Pinot is a better climber now than he was a couple of years ago (when his ITT was good). He's consistent and has made a living of taking bonus seconds on the line, which could help him gain time on Froome and Dumoulin if he's unable to simply drop them.

For me, the biggest ask is how 'bad' Pinot will be in the time trial and whether his team is a complete mess. If he can come anywhere close to Froome and Dumoulin in the TT, he might very well take it all.

His team surely isn't a complete mess. Preidler, Morabito and Reichenbach should be very good domestics in the mountains and experienced riders like Ladagnous, Roy, Roux and Bonnet are decent for the flat stages.

 

[Squire]

Re: Re:

Pinot is just a really strong rider and a fighter. While Lopez has a higher ceiling, I doubt that will have much to say, as I still see him as being too inconsistent over three weeks. Pinot is a better climber now than he was a couple of years ago (when his ITT was good). He's consistent and has made a living of taking bonus seconds on the line, which could help him gain time on Froome and Dumoulin if he's unable to simply drop them.

For me, the biggest ask is how 'bad' Pinot will be in the time trial and whether his team is a complete mess. If he can come anywhere close to Froome and Dumoulin in the TT, he might very well take it all.

His team surely isn't a complete mess. Preidler, Morabito and Reichenbach should be very good domestics in the mountains and experienced riders like Ladagnous, Roy, Roux and Bonnet are decent for the flat stages.

I'd say his team is very good, but he lacks the last guy in the mountains. I don't think Reichenbach is back at his best, so Pinot could be isolated in the favourites group.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

I'm really surprised to see Pinot getting this many votes. I have a real hard time seeing him win. Froome is obviously the favorite and Dumoulin was great last year. If anyone is to cause an upset, it's probably Lopez who has a much heigher celing in the climbing department than Pinot. Basically, there's not a single thing that Pinot does better than anyone - there will always be a better climber and a better time trialist.

Can only speak for myself but I don't think Pinot has to be the best climber or best TTer. I expect him to be a better climber than the best TTer and a better TTer than the best climber and that may very well be enough to win.

in other words, he ought to destroy all anti-tt'ers in time trials and at the same time to be lucky enough to perfectly cooperate with the best climbers to put as much time as possible into strong tt'ers. really tough mission.

Of course it’s a tough ask, but not out of this world. He has an outside shot for sure. If the Tour of Alps was just a training race and he’s still building form then he’s got more than an outside shot.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Pinot is just a really strong rider and a fighter. While Lopez has a higher ceiling, I doubt that will have much to say, as I still see him as being too inconsistent over three weeks. Pinot is a better climber now than he was a couple of years ago (when his ITT was good). He's consistent and has made a living of taking bonus seconds on the line, which could help him gain time on Froome and Dumoulin if he's unable to simply drop them.

For me, the biggest ask is how 'bad' Pinot will be in the time trial and whether his team is a complete mess. If he can come anywhere close to Froome and Dumoulin in the TT, he might very well take it all.

And this ...
Consistency is key

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

I'm really surprised to see Pinot getting this many votes. I have a real hard time seeing him win. Froome is obviously the favorite and Dumoulin was great last year. If anyone is to cause an upset, it's probably Lopez who has a much heigher celing in the climbing department than Pinot. Basically, there's not a single thing that Pinot does better than anyone - there will always be a better climber and a better time trialist.

Can only speak for myself but I don't think Pinot has to be the best climber or best TTer. I expect him to be a better climber than the best TTer and a better TTer than the best climber and that may very well be enough to win.

My reasoning why he won't win is the same as your reasoning why he will win Almost all recent Grand Tour winner have eliter been the best timetrialist or the best climber (or both).

Obviously Froome is both a better climber and timetrialist than Pinot. Dumoulin is obviously a better timetrialist and an equally good climber (I would say). I don't see how Pinot should be able to beat either of those barring accidents. I think that Lopez has a better chance of beating Froome and Dumoulin as his climbing potential is much higher and if he suddenly fulfills his potential, he might pose a serious threat. I think that Lopez has a better chance of winning the Giro than Pinot, but I would back Pinot in a head to head against Lopez.

Pinot's timetrialist was pretty mediocre last year and he won't be able to win back time in the mountains. He's also pretty inconsistent (thought probably not as much as he used to be), but he'll fight for a podium for sure.

 

[staubsauger]

You know what? The problem is: Froome's climbing likely is absolutely vulnerable. He climbs mediocre by his own standards the whole season long. And I doubt it improves THAT significantly for the Giro d'Italia! But with his TT skills there ain't no other favorite that can really take advantage of that. The course might be a bit too hard for Dumoulin. While Lopez & Pinot both are weak descenders. They're highly unlikely to attack Froome over a col and distance him that way. In fact Froome is the best descender of the favorites. Aru is decent downhill, but his climbing shape fluctuates way too much over 3 weeks to consider him a true contender for the pink jersey. Yates might be a dark horse,but he's a bit average compared to the other riders. Even compared to Chavez, who's good but not a potential 2018 Giro winner for me.

Astana should've send Jakob Fuglsang instead of López. Yes, I truly believe that Fuglsang would've had a serious chance to beat Froome and Dumoulin below peak, on this course. Simply because he could potentially attack over a col on the Jafferau or Cervinia stage. Same goes for Bardet of course. But he's French and has a TdF podium to lose, while Fuglsang hasn't. It's a shame Astana chose the gt leaders wrong IMHO.

López must win a lot of time in the mountains. Even if he comes close to his Tour of Switzerland TT! That's not out of the world. But I have a hard time to really believe in that, because of his bad descending and because he even might lose precious seconds on Mount Etna and Campo Imperatore!

Pinot won't win the Giro d'Italia. Even if he's in the pink jersey, all other contenders will simply go nuts up and especially down the mountains in stage 19 & 20 and there goes his jersey...

I fear Froome wins the 2018 Giro d'Italia completely lusterless. Simply because his opponents are too limited. Dumoulin in last years shape might be the only hope for a different outcome. Because a mediocre Froome in fact might have problems to shake him off in the mountains and loses out in the TT anyway.