I'd forgotten that Froome finished 50 seconds down in the opening ITT in the 2015 TDF. Two stages later, thanks to the Mur de Huy, he was in yellow. The climb at the end of stage 4 looks like a poor man's Mur; depending on if he's fully recovered from the crash and how well he's climbing, he might claw back some of his deficit on some of the contenders ahead of him. He won't be able to gain a lot of time even in the best case scenario, but based on the way he's scrambled for a few extra seconds in the early stages of the past two Tours, I think he will regard it as important not just to finish at the same time with the others.
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He might scratch a little time back from Aru and Lopez on stage 4 and 5 (well technically he is ahead, so thats a wrong term....), but he aint getting time on Dumoulin and Pinot there.
I'm finding it really hard to understand why TD is the overwhelming favourite with some, now that he has won the TT. He was expected to win that stage anyway and he is expected to win the final TT by some margin. The road hasn't started to go up yet, where he could ship a load of time to his rivals, plus todays stage I wouldn't be surprised to see SKY try and do some damage with potential crosswinds in the desert. Way too early to suggest he is in top form off a stage he wasn't expected to lose. We'll start to see how the GC is playing out after Etna (maybe) but at the moment he has a good advantage, but not a winning one.
But a lot of people have not forgotten Oropa, Blockhaus, St Ulrich... in 2 of those 3 stages, Dumoulin looked to be the strongest climber as well last year. In Blockhaus, only Quintana was better. That's why people think he's the overwhelming favoritie
It's not just the TT, that's the point. It will be hard to gain time on Dumoulin anywhere
That being said, he's obviously weaker in multi mountain stages at the end of a GT and susceptible to bad days like everyone else..
It's not just the TT, that's the point. It will be hard to gain time on Dumoulin anywhere
That being said, he's obviously weaker in multi mountain stages at the end of a GT and susceptible to bad days like everyone else..
He didn't become the favorite because he won but because froome lost so much time. A 37 seconds deficit on its own is already hard to make up but the bigger problem for froome was that he is probably either in bad shape or injured. In both cases that's not exactly promising.wheresmybrakes said:
About being 50 seconds down in the 2015 tdf ITT, that was a very different scenario. 1. Iirc the wind picked up late in the ITT which means froome shouldn't have been so far down and 2. In 2015 there was only one ITT so froome probably focused 100% on climbing in his preparation. Maybe he did the same again. That would also explain his deficit, but I neither think he would do that with another, a lot longer, TT to come nor would it be very smart as he'd lose a bunch of time in the 2nd TT.
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Meanwhile nothing that Froome has done after the 2015 Tour suggests that he can still ride like that. Nothing. In fact I think he's steadily gotten worse since. I believe his level was higher in 2016 than in 2017 and the only difference was in one of the 4 GTs he rode in those years he actually met a top climber in great shape and ran into an ambush.
I don't think Dumoulin is taking this Giro by a country mile by any stretch of the imagination, as he basically has to climb with the best on most stages to win and I don't see him being the best climber either. Etna will be very telling, cause I don't think the climbers can afford to wait it out. Honestly think that if they drop him there already, it's probably GG already.
Actually I don't think he's weaker on multi mountain stages than on unipuerto stages with a big climb. In the Vuelta his placings on those stages were very similar. Even the stage where he lost the Vuelta he was dropped by only 6 or so GC riders which was still pretty consistent with how he'd done the entire Vuelta. Last year I don't think there was a big difference between his climbing on Blockhaus, Umbrail or the Dolomiti stage.Dekker_Tifosi said:
Meanwhile nothing that Froome has done after the 2015 Tour suggests that he can still ride like that. Nothing. In fact I think he's steadily gotten worse since. I believe his level was higher in 2016 than in 2017 and the only difference was in one of the 4 GTs he rode in those years he actually met a top climber in great shape and ran into an ambush.
I don't think Dumoulin is taking this Giro by a country mile by any stretch of the imagination, as he basically has to climb with the best on most stages to win and I don't see him being the best climber either. Etna will be very telling, cause I don't think the climbers can afford to wait it out. Honestly think that if they drop him there already, it's probably GG already.
He'll probably between 3-8 in most climbing stages. Where 3 might be good enough, 8th probably isn't. (too pull back in that one TT left)
The only weakness that Dumo has is if the other riders don't lack the killer instinct. Other than that he looks very strong and set to win his second Giro.
If the climbers just seat for 2 weeks and play the waiting game is game over. Now that they know he is very strong and the biggest favorite the climbers need to start fireworks from day one. Don't let him take a nice ride in the first mountain stages. It takes him more energy to ride those mountains than it takes the climbers. That's the reason why Dumo needed a good team in the mountains. If you don't have a good team to help you and support you in those initial stages you are going to be cooked in the third week. Like what happened in the Vuelta. That's the only vulneral point I see on Dumo now. Other than that He looks very fit to win.
My 2 cents!
If the climbers just seat for 2 weeks and play the waiting game is game over. Now that they know he is very strong and the biggest favorite the climbers need to start fireworks from day one. Don't let him take a nice ride in the first mountain stages. It takes him more energy to ride those mountains than it takes the climbers. That's the reason why Dumo needed a good team in the mountains. If you don't have a good team to help you and support you in those initial stages you are going to be cooked in the third week. Like what happened in the Vuelta. That's the only vulneral point I see on Dumo now. Other than that He looks very fit to win.
My 2 cents!
I don't really see how Dumoulin would have a lack of killer instinct. Many of his best results have been aided by some very solid tactical decisions.
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This is actually one of the biggest positives from this stage. I don't necessarily love this Connor kid (guess Im pretty neutral on him - his Trentino win was great tho!), but Meintjens being outclassed by him is nice. Guess he will finish around 12th-15th in the end, Meintjens that is!42x16ss said:
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I met O’Connor a couple of times when he was starting out, nice kid, BIG engine. Was beating NRS guys like Giacoppo in 20km TTs less than a year after starting cycling. Great to see him doing well.Valv.Piti said:
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O'Connor is off contract this year - He should be looking at teams who can develop his potential.
42x16ss said:
O'Connor is off contract this year - He should be looking at teams who can develop his potential.
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