Who will win the Giro 2018?

[Tonton]

Re:

I hope Kruijswijk never gets a decent result again so I won't have to deal with that horrible nickname anymore.

I didn't want to butcher it . Dutch riders and German/Austrian climbs are very challenging when it comes to spelling them...

 

[Koronin]

Re:

I hope Kruijswijk never gets a decent result again so I won't have to deal with that horrible nickname anymore.

I typically end up calling him Steven K.

 

[Tonton]

...its' like French words on a menu...often butchered.

I just hope that this doesn't get recalled afterwards, I leave it at that but it's the elephant in the room. I'm a mod. And I want the winner to enjoy the win, the glory, the moment.

Froome and Dumoulin are favorites. The 5 Stars.

Pinot 4 stars. His Alps performance was impressive. Best of the rest in ITT, time-bonus potential.

Then a bunch of riders who are very close to Pinot, If overlooked, they can podium. FDJ can't control them. Pinot will have to be really strong.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

I usually agree with the bookies. But every now and then they have outright problems with a prediction (Porte second favorite for the Tour). If somebody out of the blue wins, they cannot predict that, but so many people either.

Bookies don't predict anything. 2 days before starting, that's only probability builds on thousands of real bets.
But do you really think that sb from the blues really may win it???

Ok my bad, I didn't mean an actual prediction but the results from thousands of bets.

From the blues we have Movistar, Astana and Quick Step. Based on this Lopez will win it!

That is as good a prediction as anyone else!

 

[SHAD0W93]

I hope Pinot wins and Froome fails miserably.

 

[Escarabajo]

I can't wait for this race. After watching the mess from last year we have better participation for this one with no clear favorite. This is the race of the Time Trialists (Froome and Dumo) versus the Mountain Goats (Lopez, Chaves, Aru, Pozzo, Pinot, Yates).

Expect aliances in this Giro. It will be very interesting.

 

[The Hegelian]

Just looked at the teams/start list - MS look super strong, with Nieve, Kreuziger and Haig in support of a two pronged GC attack. I think one of Yates/Chaves will podium.

I think Lopez needs a few more years to be a genuine GT chance. Aru and Pinot stand out as the two mature climbers who can challenge TD & CF for the win.

 

[Robert5091]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/chris-froome-not-relying-on-time-trials-for-giro-ditalia-title/
Froome believes he is second best to Tommy D, or he'll lose too much time to the climbers -

"I'm not going to be able to rely on time trialling to win the Giro.

If Froome can drop Tommy D on the climbs, he's got this in the bag.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Big ...the final poll last year...

Quintana 60
Nibali 17
Pinot 13
Crushweak 8
Yates and Other 5
Landa 4
Thomas 3
Dumoulin 2...

We got 2-3-4 in the right order...but we sucked . Las Vegas sucked too.

No way... Dumo got 2 votes???

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

- Dumoulin: has shown nothing this year, but has had bad luck. His LBL was encouraging though. The rolling time trials suit him and Italy suits him. His team isn't very strong though and he may find himself isolated more than once. If he can keep his s**t together (haha!) he'll be difficult to beat though. My favourite.

I think Dumoulin's chances are a bit overrated this year.

One thing is the lack of form so far, but I think the route could give him problems. He'll probably be fine on the Zonc, but he has shown to be vulnerable in successive tough mountain stages. Even last year, he lost a minute on Piancavallo, and was somewhat saved by the tactics of the other GC contenders in the following stage to Asiago. And none of those stages were nearly as hard as the Jafferau and Cervinia stages this year. Those two stages could spell his doom if the 'real' climbers light it up.

And how about Sappada right after Zonc? He will most likely lose time on Zonc and maybe minutes, but the the next stage could also be very problematic and he doesn't have the luxury of having 70 km of time trial this year.

I think the chances are overrated as well. Again, I just want to see him duplicate his performance from last year first, I think it was a perfect storm which made him win (altho I feel much more confident in him than for example Kruijswijk after his insane 2016 Giro).

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Davide Formolo ????
EF Education are all riding for Michael Woods

That's the take on it. However, it also wouldn't shock me if they go with an option A and B as they are good at doing.

You guys know he is riding for Bora right?

LOL

The joke isn't (not knowing) who he is riding for but that he is in the poll for wining the Giro

Mayeb you should laugh at that

Michael Woods is a far better contender as is George Bennett

Than Formolo? Lets see how Woods deals with those super tough mountain stages, this is not the Vuelta after all. Meanwhile it seems rather logically to me that Formolo gets somewhat of a breakthrough this Giro after finally moving along from that team which seemed to hamper him. Definitely taking Formolo over Woods.

 

[SafeBet]

Big ...the final poll last year...

Quintana 60
Nibali 17
Pinot 13
Crushweak 8
Yates and Other 5
Landa 4
Thomas 3
Dumoulin 2...

We got 2-3-4 in the right order...but we sucked . Las Vegas sucked too.

No way... Dumo got 2 votes???

People forget how quickly our perception of riders change. There have been at least 4-5 surprise winners of GTs in this decade (much more unexpected than Pinot). And this really seems like a year where anything could happen.

I never bet money but if I had to, I'd put my money on Thibaut.

 

[Squire]

Re: Re:

- Dumoulin: has shown nothing this year, but has had bad luck. His LBL was encouraging though. The rolling time trials suit him and Italy suits him. His team isn't very strong though and he may find himself isolated more than once. If he can keep his s**t together (haha!) he'll be difficult to beat though. My favourite.

I think Dumoulin's chances are a bit overrated this year.

One thing is the lack of form so far, but I think the route could give him problems. He'll probably be fine on the Zonc, but he has shown to be vulnerable in successive tough mountain stages. Even last year, he lost a minute on Piancavallo, and was somewhat saved by the tactics of the other GC contenders in the following stage to Asiago. And none of those stages were nearly as hard as the Jafferau and Cervinia stages this year. Those two stages could spell his doom if the 'real' climbers light it up.

And how about Sappada right after Zonc? He will most likely lose time on Zonc and maybe minutes, but the the next stage could also be very problematic and he doesn't have the luxury of having 70 km of time trial this year.

I think the chances are overrated as well. Again, I just want to see him duplicate his performance from last year first, I think it was a perfect storm which made him win (altho I feel much more confident in him than for example Kruijswijk after his insane 2016 Giro).

If Procyclingstats are to be believed, Dumoulin is 1kg lighter than Basso, so Dumo isn't necessarily at a physical disadvantage on the Zonc. And he's good in mono-climb stages.

I also think that his Giro win last year shouldn't be underestimated. He did it with relative ease, and it was thoroughly deserved. But the route suited him a lot better compared to this year.

Oh, and I also believe that Formolo is a safer bet than Woods for a high placing. But the potential of Woods is higher.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Zonc isn't a mono climb stage tho, its actually a pretty tough stages with countless of longer muritos beforehand. Not the longs climbs, but all very steep. Legs will definitely be tired when they reach Ovaro.

But yeah, it shouldn't be underestimated. He won fair and square against Nibz and Quintana which is super impressive, but I feel neither was firing on all cylinders.

 

[Cinemaniak]

Re:

He won fair and square against Nibz and Quintana which is super impressive, but I feel neither was firing on all cylinders.

Well.. Quintana clearly gave his best in the Giro, because he was completely finished in the TdF.
Nibali had super-season in 2017 and I can't see how much better he could've raced the races he did. One of the most consistent riders of the year, so was his Giro. I can only remember one (slightly) bad day, with the finish on Oropa.

I believe Dumoulin is just on hell of a talented rider and easily one of the best climbers. Just not on every climb, but that can be said for most of the GC-contenders. The main difference I see between the likes of Froome/Dumoulin and Landa/Lopez/Quintana, is the amount of times they can fallow and attack. Froome and Dumoulin often have one big attack, without the risk to completely blow up. Nibali, Lopez, Aru, etc often need more than one attack to distance themselves, but always risk the possibility to lose minutes when they digged to deep.

 

[Gigs_98]

Big ...the final poll last year...

Quintana 60
Nibali 17
Pinot 13
Crushweak 8
Yates and Other 5
Landa 4
Thomas 3
Dumoulin 2...

We got 2-3-4 in the right order...but we sucked . Las Vegas sucked too.

No way... Dumo got 2 votes???

Nobody saw his incredible climbing coming. He hadn't shown anything in 2017 before the giro which could have made people think he had that in him. But the huge difference between dumoulin and Pinot is that we hadn't seen dumoulin's ceiling in a gt before the 2017 while Pinot has been on a consistently good level for a few years. Again, that's why I think Lopez is more likely to win than Pinot

 

[Red Rick]

It's pretty clear that Quintana wasn't his best in the Giro after his crash in stage 15. Quintana at his best doesn't keep getting dropped by Zakarin, Pozzovivo and Pinot.

I think Nibali was also clearly a little better in the Vuelta, and he blew himself up a couple of times, which in the end probably made him lose the race. I think in the end the dynamic between Quintana and Nibali saved Dumoulin a little big cause on the last day Nibali was caught between a rock and a hard place.

 

[YavorD]

I think that Dumo could've won last year's Giro a bit easier that it happened. My guess is that he burned a lot of his energy it that "*** affair" plus he made a mistake early in the Piancavalo so the damage was already done. Do not forget the fact that he lost his main domestique early in the race, so he was pretty much alone ever since. I'm pretty sure Oomen/Vervaeke/Hamilton will be better support for him this year. Esp. Oomen, I believe, could be with him up until the last climb. That said I'm not saying that he WILL deffo win this year's Giro because :
1st. Somehow he didn't look that convincing this year (well, maybe the expectations are higher)
2nd. Astana. They may blow the race apart, something Movistar And Bahrein didn't do.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

It's pretty clear that Quintana wasn't his best in the Giro after his crash in stage 15. Quintana at his best doesn't keep getting dropped by Zakarin, Pozzovivo and Pinot.

I think Nibali was also clearly a little better in the Vuelta, and he blew himself up a couple of times, which in the end probably made him lose the race. I think in the end the dynamic between Quintana and Nibali saved Dumoulin a little big cause on the last day Nibali was caught between a rock and a hard place.

This.

I don't think that neither was at his best. They both blew it completely on stage 20. That was the most horrible display of tactics that I ever seen.

I also believe that this year there are more climbers to reckon with and less TT kilometers. That does not help Dumo. However I think he is in good shape. We'll see.

 

[Breh]

Froome can't break the Giro curse for Sky, can he?

They've won Tirreno for the first time though...

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

It's pretty clear that Quintana wasn't his best in the Giro after his crash in stage 15. Quintana at his best doesn't keep getting dropped by Zakarin, Pozzovivo and Pinot.

I think Nibali was also clearly a little better in the Vuelta, and he blew himself up a couple of times, which in the end probably made him lose the race. I think in the end the dynamic between Quintana and Nibali saved Dumoulin a little big cause on the last day Nibali was caught between a rock and a hard place.

This.

I don't think that neither was at his best. They both blew it completely on stage 20. That was the most horrible display of tactics that I ever seen.

I also believe that this year there are more climbers to reckon with and less TT kilometers. That does not help Dumo. However I think he is in good shape. We'll see.

They both looked out of sorts in the mountains. Dumoulin just rode the mountain stages like a TT and he never seemed to panic. It was careless of him to drop a minute on a descent but he will learn from that. Without Crapgate he wins easily and that had nothing to do with his recovery, he just overdid the carbs. Movistar looked mediocre throughout the race. On paper they had a much stronger team than Dumo.

 

[carton]

Dumoulin has cracked (a little too literally last time) at every Grand Tour. He was at top form so he managed to eek out (sorry, again) the win anyway last year. I mean, I think on the right course and at the right form he can overcome those losses (no pun intented, really). And he should win more Grand Tours eventually. But these don't seem to be the right conditions.

Froome is coming in undercooked but there's very little indication that the GC race will break open before the second rest day, by which time the Sky musher should be hitting his notes. I mean, the last few kms of stage 9 might potentialy witness some movement but what will likely happen with the rest day dawning is that the Kyri/Deignan/DLC/Henao/Poels Iditarod pack will drag the Top Dawg and everyone to the line at 6.5W/Kg.

But Grand Tours are won on the road and not on forums, so maybe Froome has an off-day himself (as has happened every so often), someone has the gall (and the strength) to take it to one of finest early summit climbers in history on Etna, or we get a truly vintage Pinot performance. Or, though the cycling gods rarely script this kind of fanservice, this is the episode were Superman learns to fly.

 

[Krokro]

Re:

Zonc isn't a mono climb stage tho, its actually a pretty tough stages with countless of longer muritos beforehand. Not the longs climbs, but all very steep. Legs will definitely be tired when they reach Ovaro.

But yeah, it shouldn't be underestimated. He won fair and square against Nibz and Quintana which is super impressive, but I feel neither was firing on all cylinders.

This, Zonc stage is not just about Zonc I guess. His team seems stronger than last year but it's still not SKY, Astana or Mitchelton-Scott. He might get caught here.

I've re-watched the course carefully and according to last year, Dumo seems to do good in "mono-climb" stages indeed, like Etna or Oropa. I've counted 4 stages like this, 1 tricky (Sappada) and the 3 where he will definitely lose big chunk of time, probably around 4min in total I'd say (Zoncolan, Bardonecchia and Cervinia).

So don't bury the likes of Pinot, Pozzovivo (with his new skillzzz) and Aru. As someone already said, MAL is still a question mark even if probably the best in the hardest mountainous stages. It's the other stages where I'm affraid for him.

FTW, heart says Pinot all the way. But I'm affraid to say that Froome has all the weapons to get his first Giro. I just think he went for a slow building like '17 and will skyrocket in the 3rd week.

 

[Breh]

He didn't lose any time last year in Bormio and in the Dolomites. Both brutal multi-mountain stages.
Piancavallo and Blockhaus were both unipuerto and he lost time there.

 

[Parker]

Re:

He didn't lose any time last year in Bormio

Actual result of Bormio stage:

1. Nibali
3. Quintana +0.12
13. Dumoulin +2.18

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/giro-d-italia/2017/stage-16