Who will win the Giro 2018?

[Netserk]

Like last year, I expect Pinot to be bad after the restdays and lose significant time in the ITT.

 

[RedheadDane]

Astana should've send Jakob Fuglsang instead of López. Yes, I truly believe that Fuglsang would've had a serious chance to beat Froome and Dumoulin below peak, on this course. Simply because he could potentially attack over a col on the Jafferau or Cervinia stage. Same goes for Bardet of course. But he's French and has a TdF podium to lose, while Fuglsang hasn't. It's a shame Astana chose the gt leaders wrong IMHO.

Otoh, throwing Lopez into the Tour this early might be a bit, well, early. While he's unlikely to win, Fuglsang is their best bet for a good result at the Tour.

 

[staubsauger]

Re:

Astana should've send Jakob Fuglsang instead of López. Yes, I truly believe that Fuglsang would've had a serious chance to beat Froome and Dumoulin below peak, on this course. Simply because he could potentially attack over a col on the Jafferau or Cervinia stage. Same goes for Bardet of course. But he's French and has a TdF podium to lose, while Fuglsang hasn't. It's a shame Astana chose the gt leaders wrong IMHO.

Otoh, throwing Lopez into the Tour this early might be a bit, well, early. While he's unlikely to win, Fuglsang is their best bet for a good result at the Tour.

Vehement protest from my side, pal! Firstly because the TdF, despite the higher level of competition, has become somewhat weaker than the Giro d'Italia with it's demanding route. Secondly because this year's Tour route actually looks tailor-made for Lopez with the long, regular French cols. Thirdly because López almost surely would win the white jersey against Adam Yates and I don't see Fuglsang winning a jersey at the Tour to be honest. A diesel engine and handy descender like Fuglsang strikes me as a potential Giro winner rather than someone who podiums the Tour in though competition. Simply because of the combination of the Giro's storyline and his skill set.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

The pool's results are quite interesting.
But let's assume you've just got 1000 euro to make a bet with real money.
Are 22 of you going to bet that Pinot would be at the end of May Giro's winner?
I don't think so.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

Astana should've send Jakob Fuglsang instead of López. Yes, I truly believe that Fuglsang would've had a serious chance to beat Froome and Dumoulin below peak, on this course. Simply because he could potentially attack over a col on the Jafferau or Cervinia stage. Same goes for Bardet of course. But he's French and has a TdF podium to lose, while Fuglsang hasn't. It's a shame Astana chose the gt leaders wrong IMHO.

Otoh, throwing Lopez into the Tour this early might be a bit, well, early. While he's unlikely to win, Fuglsang is their best bet for a good result at the Tour.

Vehement protest from my side, pal. Firstly because the TdF, despite the higher level of competition, has become somewhat weaker than the Giro d'Italia with it's demanding route. Secondly because this year's Tour routes actually looks tailor-made for Lopez with the long French cols. Thirdly because López almost surely would win the white jersey against Adam Yates and I don't see Fuglsang winning a jersey at the Tour to be honest.

There's still the crazy media attention of the Tour.

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

I have trouble seeing Froome as a superior climber when looking at 2017.

That's true, but he still has his time trial, his regularity and a strong team, so even without dropping all the others on a climb he's still a candidate. I don't think he's as much the favorite as in last year's Tour however. It remains to be seen how he copes with those steep Italian mountains in the final nine days.

I can't understand where this concern for Froome on steep mountains in the final days of a grand tour comes from. Especially with his performance on the final mountain stage of last year's Vuelta, and this coming after having rode the Tour. Maybe that it's coming at the beginning of his chase for the Giro/Tour double and he's hoping to build on his form from the Giro to the Tour and thus be less than his best at the Giro?

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

Astana should've send Jakob Fuglsang instead of López. Yes, I truly believe that Fuglsang would've had a serious chance to beat Froome and Dumoulin below peak, on this course. Simply because he could potentially attack over a col on the Jafferau or Cervinia stage. Same goes for Bardet of course. But he's French and has a TdF podium to lose, while Fuglsang hasn't. It's a shame Astana chose the gt leaders wrong IMHO.

Otoh, throwing Lopez into the Tour this early might be a bit, well, early. While he's unlikely to win, Fuglsang is their best bet for a good result at the Tour.

Vehement protest from my side, pal. Firstly because the TdF, despite the higher level of competition, has become somewhat weaker than the Giro d'Italia with it's demanding route. Secondly because this year's Tour routes actually looks tailor-made for Lopez with the long French cols. Thirdly because López almost surely would win the white jersey against Adam Yates and I don't see Fuglsang winning a jersey at the Tour to be honest.

There's still the crazy media attention of the Tour.

I think Astana has made the right decision. The Giro, with all those MTFs, is better for a climber like López. The Tour, with cobblestones, time trials and finishes after a descent, is better for an allrounder like Fuglsang.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Yeah, watch out for Lopez. He's produced a few deceptively good ITTs in the past and if he takes off uphill he's hard to get back.

Superman's ITT is mediocre. He'll lose at least 2 to 3 minutes in Trento.

All of his results in (official) prologues and timetrials:
2018
- 8th in National Championships (25k) - flat time trial, lost more than a minute to Bernal
- 28th in Abu Dhabi (12.6k) - flat, 50 seconds slower than Dennis, which is a lot over 12k
- 75th in Tirreno (10.05k) - flat once more, bad shape in Tirreno. Which resulted in a loss of 1:05 to Dennis

2017
- 2nd in Österreich-Rundfahrt (0.8k) - the first 800m of Schlossberg, so a climbing prologue
- 141st in Suiza (6k) - flat prologue, only his second day of racing of the season, so not too much to read into, but 141st out of 176 is pretty bad
- 22nd in Vuelta (40.2) - rolling-ish timetrial. Result itself not that bad, but lost 2:34 to Froome.

2016
- 2nd in Suiza (16.8k) - tougher than advertised, not really comparable to Longroño
- 36th in Suiza (6.4k) - hillyish prologue in Baarn
- 64th in Romandia (15.1k) - hilly timetrial in Sion, lost 1:29 to Pinot
- 35th in Romandia (3.95k) - hillyish prologue in La Chaux-de-Fonds, lost 21 seconds to Izagirre
- 9th in Itzulia (16.5k) - Arrate, so a very, very tough timetrial
- 4th in National Championships (35.2k) - flat timetrial, lost 1:22 to Walter Vargas, 0:37 to Brayan Ramirez

2015
- 46th in Suiza (38.4k) - hilly timetrial in Bern, lost 3 minutes to Dumoulin
- 99th in Suiza (5.1k) - flat prologue, lost 26 seconds to Dumoulin

2014
- 36th in World Championships U23 (36.1k) - flat time trial, lost 2:37 to Campbell Flakemore
- 4th in National Championships U23 (25k) - flat (IIRC) time trial, lost 1:25 to Carlos Ramirez

All things considered and knowing that both the time trials are rolling-ish and thus in favor of Tom, I think it's fair to say Superman will lose around 2:30 to Trento and might already be looking at a loss of 0:40 - 0:45 seconds this Friday.

Reckon you are on your mark with your assessment.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Astana should've send Jakob Fuglsang instead of López. Yes, I truly believe that Fuglsang would've had a serious chance to beat Froome and Dumoulin below peak, on this course. Simply because he could potentially attack over a col on the Jafferau or Cervinia stage. Same goes for Bardet of course. But he's French and has a TdF podium to lose, while Fuglsang hasn't. It's a shame Astana chose the gt leaders wrong IMHO.

Otoh, throwing Lopez into the Tour this early might be a bit, well, early. While he's unlikely to win, Fuglsang is their best bet for a good result at the Tour.

Vehement protest from my side, pal! Firstly because the TdF, despite the higher level of competition, has become somewhat weaker than the Giro d'Italia with it's demanding route. Secondly because this year's Tour route actually looks tailor-made for Lopez with the long, regular French cols. Thirdly because López almost surely would win the white jersey against Adam Yates and I don't see Fuglsang winning a jersey at the Tour to be honest. A diesel engine and handy descender like Fuglsang strikes me as a potential Giro winner rather than someone who podiums the Tour in though competition. Simply because of the combination of the Giro's storyline and his skill set.

Hey Lopez is an average bike handler, can get lost on flat stages, yet the first week of the TDF needs a versatile rider - I doubt Lopez will get through the first week of the TDF unscathed.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Real money tells you the truth, William Hill Winner Betting Odds: CF: 13/8; TD: 2; MAL: 11/2; Pinot: 6; Aru: 8; Pozzo: 25, Chaves: 28.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

still surprised what a giant credit people give to lopez and pinot. 100% sure froome and dimoulin will be having a big leap of shape compared to Tour of alps and LBL respectively.

Lopez is fourth and is not close. Somebody has to occupy that position!

 

[Gigs_98]

Is everyone just picking who he wants to win, or how does Pinot get almost as many votes as Froome? He is a good podium pick because you know what you get, but win? I'd rate him as high as Aru in that regard and Aru has 2 votes.

Edit:

The pool's results are quite interesting.
But let's assume you've just got 1000 euro to make a bet with real money.
Are 22 of you going to bet that Pinot would be at the end of May Giro's winner?
I don't think so.

This

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

its a lot of wishful thinking indeed

That being said, I voted Dumoulin last year without realistically thinking he had a shot. So you never know.

 

[Pantani_lives]

If Pinot wins the Giro we can say that the forum has better cycling insight than the bookmakers.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Re:

Real money tells you the truth, William Hill Winner Betting Odds: CF: 13/8; TD: 2; MAL: 11/2; Pinot: 6; Aru: 8; Pozzo: 25, Chaves: 28.

King of the mountains odds are MAL: 4, Froome: 22, Pinot 22, TD 125. Does that mean TD is gonna be no good in mountains? If so he gonna be in trouble for overall.

 

[Parker]

Re:

If Pinot wins the Giro we can say that the forum has better cycling insight than the bookmakers.

Bookmakers' odds are more a reflection of the money that has been bet than their own opinion.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re:

If Pinot wins the Giro we can say that the forum has better cycling insight than the bookmakers.

I'm sure you know it's not working like that.
Bookmakers are not fans of any riders. The odds are fixed in a way to prevent them from losing the money - independently of real results.
So if Pinot wins it would prove that some Pinot's fans (or CF anti-fans) are better specialists than thousands of people all over the world.

 

[Sestriere]

Is everyone just picking who he wants to win, or how does Pinot get almost as many votes as Froome? He is a good podium pick because you know what you get, but win? I'd rate him as high as Aru in that regard and Aru has 2 votes.

Edit:

The pool's results are quite interesting.
But let's assume you've just got 1000 euro to make a bet with real money.
Are 22 of you going to bet that Pinot would be at the end of May Giro's winner?
I don't think so.

This

Maybe because he won the most important preparation race with most favourites present while never looking stressed? Or because he was fourth last year only due to the TTs which are far shorter this year? Or because there are no descent finishes where he could lose time due to poor bike handling? Maybe even because he has proven to be rather consistent and capable of winning bonus seconds in small group sprints? These were my reasons at least. Porte is second favourite for the Tour in the equivalent poll each year and has done far less to justify it.
Also, it's a bit boring to vote for the odds on favourite and then come around in the end with "I told you.."

 

[Rollthedice]

I just realized why Dumoulin is riding the Giro instead of Le Tour. He will pin on his back number one.

 

[Koronin]

Every single one of the top GC contenders for this Giro has faults and could end up being the reason each one doesn't win. Froome has started his decline (saw that last year and nothing has indicated that was inaccurate). Dumoulin still can be dropped on tough climbs. Pinot has inconsistent problems esp with ITTs and the day after rest days. Aru is just flat out inconsistent. I have no clue what to expect from the Chaves/Yates duo. Lopez doesn't have much experience (although that does not mean he can't win it). Movistar is sending their 6th and 7th best GC riders. Betencur is well Betancur and he's not where near what his potential suggests he could be. Fernandez has been out with a stress fracture almost all season. He raced the Tour Down Under and didn't race again until this week at some small continental race. Then you have Slipstream sending Woods who could sneak up there, but he has an very outside shot at best.

 

[Escarabajo]

I usually agree with the bookies. But every now and then they have outright problems with a prediction (Porte second favorite for the Tour). If somebody out of the blue wins, they cannot predict that, but so many people either.

 

[Jspear]

Guys it’s not crazy to think Pinot can win. Betting odds and those who bet go with what’s safest usually. Dumoulin hasn’t been impressive so far this year. Froome might just bonk if his team is weak, or if he isn’t used to the dynamic aggressive racing style that can be used more often in the Giro than the Tour. That said, some here feel Pinot then has a decent shot. Honestly, this year I wouldn’t put money on anyone.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Every single one of the top GC contenders for this Giro has faults and could end up being the reason each one doesn't win. Froome has started his decline (saw that last year and nothing has indicated that was inaccurate). Dumoulin still can be dropped on tough climbs. Pinot has inconsistent problems esp with ITTs and the day after rest days. Aru is just flat out inconsistent. I have no clue what to expect from the Chaves/Yates duo. Lopez doesn't have much experience (although that does not mean he can't win it). Movistar is sending their 6th and 7th best GC riders. Betencur is well Betancur and he's not where near what his potential suggests he could be. Fernandez has been out with a stress fracture almost all season. He raced the Tour Down Under and didn't race again until this week at some small continental race. Then you have Slipstream sending Woods who could sneak up there, but he has an very outside shot at best.

I'm not sure how you figure that Froome is declining based on last year where he was the first to win two GT's in one season since 1998.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re:

I usually agree with the bookies. But every now and then they have outright problems with a prediction (Porte second favorite for the Tour). If somebody out of the blue wins, they cannot predict that, but so many people either.

Bookies don't predict anything. 2 days before starting, that's only probability builds on thousands of real bets.
But do you really think that sb from the blues really may win it???

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Every single one of the top GC contenders for this Giro has faults and could end up being the reason each one doesn't win. Froome has started his decline (saw that last year and nothing has indicated that was inaccurate). Dumoulin still can be dropped on tough climbs. Pinot has inconsistent problems esp with ITTs and the day after rest days. Aru is just flat out inconsistent. I have no clue what to expect from the Chaves/Yates duo. Lopez doesn't have much experience (although that does not mean he can't win it). Movistar is sending their 6th and 7th best GC riders. Betencur is well Betancur and he's not where near what his potential suggests he could be. Fernandez has been out with a stress fracture almost all season. He raced the Tour Down Under and didn't race again until this week at some small continental race. Then you have Slipstream sending Woods who could sneak up there, but he has an very outside shot at best.

I'm not sure how you figure that Froome is declining based on last year where he was the first to win two GT's in one season since 1998.

Real simple. Watch his racing, he was weaker, thus the start of a decline. Not that hard to figure out. If it wasn't for the Formigal stage the year before he'd have won the double that year in a much more convincing style. Also it's highly likely last year's Vuelta title will be stripped from him.