Who will win the Giro 2018?

[Vesica]

Both Astana and MTS have great teams around their teamleader. Especially from Astana I expert them to break the race open. Their already on fire this year and I hope they extend this streak to the Giro. MTS with Haig, Kreuziger, Nieve and Yates as support for Chaves should be able to make the race hard. I’m not very impressed by the Sky team, not as strong as a regular Tour squad. Sunweb is decent, Oomen will be very valuable.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

He didn't lose any time last year in Bormio and in the Dolomites. Both brutal multi-mountain stages.
Piancavallo and Blockhaus were both unipuerto and he lost time there.

The Dolomite stage was laughable, and he was ~1 minute slower on Umbrail, despite the others taking it slowly at first.

 

[Breh]

Re: Re:

He didn't lose any time last year in Bormio

Actual result of Bormio stage:

1. Nibali
3. Quintana +0.12
13. Dumoulin +2.18

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/giro-d-italia/2017/stage-16

His sanitary stop took about 2minutes after which he had to climb it on his own as opposed to the other favorites.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

He didn't lose any time last year in Bormio

Actual result of Bormio stage:

1. Nibali
3. Quintana +0.12
13. Dumoulin +2.18

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/giro-d-italia/2017/stage-16

His sanitary stop took about 2minutes.

Ascent times: http://www.climbing-records.com/2017/05/fast-ascents-on-stelvio.html

 

[Breh]

Hardly a big difference if you take into account he had to tackle it entirely on his own. But ok, I thought it was less than a minute.

 

[Netserk]

Sure, drafting had an effect. So did pacing, and the favorites were almost standing still and looking at each other (hyperbole) at the bottom of it.

 

[May0maniac]

Aru is 1kg heavier than before, maybe that will help him a bit, I often got the impression that being too skinny made him more fragile(messed a bit with his recovery.
Formolo is now working with Sagan's coach Patxi Vila and apparently Bora signed a guy from BMC to work with their riders on their TT skills, so maybe he'll surprise people.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Sure, drafting had an effect. So did pacing, and the favorites were almost standing still and looking at each other (hyperbole) at the bottom of it.

Still, I think it's pretty certain Dumoulin would've lost 0.00 to max 0.30 if he didn't have the incident that stage.

 

[Koronin]

With the teams both Astana and MTS are sending I expect them both try to break this race open ASAP. I especially expect that from Astana. This Astana team reminds me of the one that Contador beat om 2015 and wore him out before his attempted double at the Tour.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

With the teams both Astana and MTS are sending I expect them both try to break this race open ASAP. I especially expect that from Astana. This Astana team reminds me of the one that Contador beat om 2015 and wore him out before his attempted double at the Tour.

Well Movistar was expected to do the same last year but when they did put Dumoulin under pressure they couldn't crack him completely. But I do think Astana will be more aggressive and Dumoulin probably knows that. The big question is how will Sky go ?

 

[staubsauger]

Astana can send Hirt up the road as well. Just like Mitchelton can do with Yates. That might become a big tactical advantage.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

With the teams both Astana and MTS are sending I expect them both try to break this race open ASAP. I especially expect that from Astana. This Astana team reminds me of the one that Contador beat om 2015 and wore him out before his attempted double at the Tour.

Well Movistar was expected to do the same last year but when they did put Dumoulin under pressure they couldn't crack him completely. But I do think Astana will be more aggressive and Dumoulin probably knows that. The big question is how will Sky go ?

Movistar's team was stronger on paper than it was in the race to start with. Next we're talking about a team that is typically very conservative (unlike Astana specifically) and a team that many times tactics are questioned because they don't make sense.

 

[Oliwright]

I think Dumoulin will win, because I think something will go wrong for Froome, relative to France he has very little Italian road experience.

I think Froome or Lopez will be the best climbers. People forget that Froome specializes his form depending on the number of TT kms. But Froome was also the best overall Climber at the Vuelta last year and he was very dominant there, because I think he came in pretty undercooked for the Tour. Also, Sky's team is incredible so Froome has to start as the favorite based on the odds.

Lopez, Pinot, Chaves, Yates, Aru are wildcards. But I think Lopez has the best ability to win, but he crashes a lot (ala Geraint).

 

[Climbing]

I think Froome will crumble somewhere under pressure and Dumo will get slaughtered in the real mountains we have this year.
Aru or Pinot for the win.
(more wishful thinking for an exciting race than anything else )

 

[movingtarget]

Not a great start with Froome crashing in the TT recon. Is the Sky curse starting early ?

 

[Durden93]

Re: Re:

I have trouble seeing Froome as a superior climber when looking at 2017.

You think Froome would have been dropped on Foza and Piancavallo like Tom? I certainly think Froome is more consistent and better on back-to-back mountain stages.

True, but Froome has shown he is much stronger early in a GT than later.

 

[Merckx index]

The question now is, how much of Froome's poor performance in the ITT was due to the crash? All of it? Would he have been close to Dumo if he hadn't crashed? If so, can he recover enough on the opening flat stages? I recall how Contador eventually quit the 2016 Tour because he couldn't recover enough from a crash. But all Froome has to do is follow the peloton for a few days.

OTOH, if the crash didn't affect his performance that much, then his form has to be a real concern. And this is not totally unexpected, given how he looked in his three previous races this year.

 

[Koronin]

I would have to believe the crash had to have effected his ITT. How much don't know if we'll ever know, but it had to have had an effect. He's lucky the next two stages are for the sprinters. However, it seems once you crash that it is likely you'll crash again and typically in a spot in which you most likely shouldn't have crashed in the first place.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I would have to believe the crash had to have effected his ITT. How much don't know if we'll ever know, but it had to have had an effect. He's lucky the next two stages are for the sprinters. However, it seems once you crash that it is likely you'll crash again and typically in a spot in which you most likely shouldn't have crashed in the first place.

Yes it had to have some effect same for Lopez. He is lucky there is no early mountain stage. He will try and hide in the bunch for a few days.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

I have trouble seeing Froome as a superior climber when looking at 2017.

You think Froome would have been dropped on Foza and Piancavallo like Tom? I certainly think Froome is more consistent and better on back-to-back mountain stages.

True, but Froome has shown he is much stronger early in a GT than later.

Not last year he wasn't at least in the Tour.

 

[perico]

I think Dumoulin will win, because I think something will go wrong for Froome, relative to France he has very little Italian road experience.

I think Froome or Lopez will be the best climbers. People forget that Froome specializes his form depending on the number of TT kms. But Froome was also the best overall Climber at the Vuelta last year and he was very dominant there, because I think he came in pretty undercooked for the Tour. Also, Sky's team is incredible so Froome has to start as the favorite based on the odds.

Lopez, Pinot, Chaves, Yates, Aru are wildcards. But I think Lopez has the best ability to win, but he crashes a lot (ala Geraint).

I don’t necessarily think he was necessarily the best climber in the Vuelta. Lopez and Contador were both strong at times. Froome lost time to all the GC contenders at Machucos and was struggling to stay with Poels at Angliru. The TT and the early woes of his rivals gave him a buffer.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re:

The question now is, how much of Froome's poor performance in the ITT was due to the crash? All of it? Would he have been close to Dumo if he hadn't crashed? If so, can he recover enough on the opening flat stages? I recall how Contador eventually quit the 2016 Tour because he couldn't recover enough from a crash. But all Froome has to do is follow the peloton for a few days.

OTOH, if the crash didn't affect his performance that much, then his form has to be a real concern. And this is not totally unexpected, given how he looked in his three previous races this year.

My guess is that the main effect would have been excessive extra caution in the (many) corners. It was a very technical course, and going down on the recon would have effected his confidence and willingness to take risks. His body would more likely suffer a lot more in a day or two, compared to the day it happened.

 

[EroicaStradeBianche]

Pinot

 

[arvc40]

Froome by a country mile !

 

[Cookster15]

After the first two stages I'd say Dumoulin by a country mile. His stage one performance suggests he is in top form, regardless of his so so early season. Now after stage 2 his team does not need to waste energy defending pink. Since we now know Dumoulin is in top form it means he will climb well enough - at least as good as 2017. He is also still only 27 years old. Froome is injured and just maybe inhibited by other "factors". Lopez won't do enough damage in the mountains to offset his other glaring weakness - TT. Simon Yates is the dark horse. He did a good TT for a little guy and is still only 25 so whatever he has shown in recent times he should be stronger now all else being equal.