Who will win the Giro 2018?

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re: Re:

Every single one of the top GC contenders for this Giro has faults and could end up being the reason each one doesn't win. Froome has started his decline (saw that last year and nothing has indicated that was inaccurate). Dumoulin still can be dropped on tough climbs. Pinot has inconsistent problems esp with ITTs and the day after rest days. Aru is just flat out inconsistent. I have no clue what to expect from the Chaves/Yates duo. Lopez doesn't have much experience (although that does not mean he can't win it). Movistar is sending their 6th and 7th best GC riders. Betencur is well Betancur and he's not where near what his potential suggests he could be. Fernandez has been out with a stress fracture almost all season. He raced the Tour Down Under and didn't race again until this week at some small continental race. Then you have Slipstream sending Woods who could sneak up there, but he has an very outside shot at best.

I'm not sure how you figure that Froome is declining based on last year where he was the first to win two GT's in one season since 1998.

Wishful thinking, that's all. And there is no need to come back to Angliru stage. He just did what had to do.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Every single one of the top GC contenders for this Giro has faults and could end up being the reason each one doesn't win. Froome has started his decline (saw that last year and nothing has indicated that was inaccurate). Dumoulin still can be dropped on tough climbs. Pinot has inconsistent problems esp with ITTs and the day after rest days. Aru is just flat out inconsistent. I have no clue what to expect from the Chaves/Yates duo. Lopez doesn't have much experience (although that does not mean he can't win it). Movistar is sending their 6th and 7th best GC riders. Betencur is well Betancur and he's not where near what his potential suggests he could be. Fernandez has been out with a stress fracture almost all season. He raced the Tour Down Under and didn't race again until this week at some small continental race. Then you have Slipstream sending Woods who could sneak up there, but he has an very outside shot at best.

I'm not sure how you figure that Froome is declining based on last year where he was the first to win two GT's in one season since 1998.

Real simple. Watch his racing, he was weaker, thus the start of a decline. Not that hard to figure out. If it wasn't for the Formigal stage the year before he'd have won the double that year in a much more convincing style. Also it's highly likely last year's Vuelta title will be stripped from him.

Well, it was always his plan to go for the double so it's pretty obvious why he wouldn't be as strong as usual in any single one of the two. He had no reason to spend any more energy than necessary in the Tour.

 

[Netserk]

He tried and failed to drop Bardet and Uran on Izoard. I'd say he looked better in Tour/Vuelta in '16 than last year, with the strength of his team deciding the success of the respective doubles.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Every single one of the top GC contenders for this Giro has faults and could end up being the reason each one doesn't win. Froome has started his decline (saw that last year and nothing has indicated that was inaccurate). Dumoulin still can be dropped on tough climbs. Pinot has inconsistent problems esp with ITTs and the day after rest days. Aru is just flat out inconsistent. I have no clue what to expect from the Chaves/Yates duo. Lopez doesn't have much experience (although that does not mean he can't win it). Movistar is sending their 6th and 7th best GC riders. Betencur is well Betancur and he's not where near what his potential suggests he could be. Fernandez has been out with a stress fracture almost all season. He raced the Tour Down Under and didn't race again until this week at some small continental race. Then you have Slipstream sending Woods who could sneak up there, but he has an very outside shot at best.

I'm not sure how you figure that Froome is declining based on last year where he was the first to win two GT's in one season since 1998.

Real simple. Watch his racing, he was weaker, thus the start of a decline. Not that hard to figure out. If it wasn't for the Formigal stage the year before he'd have won the double that year in a much more convincing style. Also it's highly likely last year's Vuelta title will be stripped from him.

Well, it was always his plan to go for the double so it's pretty obvious why he wouldn't be as strong as usual in any single one of the two. He had no reason to spend any more energy than necessary in the Tour.

It was obvious that he was stronger in BOTH races in 2016 in which he was ALSO going for the double. He was most definitely not as strong in 2017 as he was in 2016. That is actually a sign of the start of a decline.

 

[Jagartrott]

My take:
- Froome is not as dominant as he was, not in the mountains, and not in the time trials. He builds on his consistency, his strong team and his ability to pace himself nowadays. That said, his consistency is a question mark with possible cold and wet weather, his team is also a question mark, and Dumoulin is also really good at pacing himself and profits from tempo (Sky) riding. Moreover, people here are forgetting that the pressure on him is immense, with the TUE case and the constant questions all year. This extra stress is not to be underestimated. I don't see him winning.
- Dumoulin: has shown nothing this year, but has had bad luck. His LBL was encouraging though. The rolling time trials suit him and Italy suits him. His team isn't very strong though and he may find himself isolated more than once. If he can keep his s**t together (haha!) he'll be difficult to beat though. My favourite.
- Lopez: should be the best climber, but weaker time trials and inconsistency will cause serious time loss.
- Pinot: all uphill mountain finishes should suit him. He's a fighter, but I think he'll loose too much time here and there to really challenge.
- Aru: if he's on form, he could actually win this. That said, he hasn't shown real form in over a year.

These are the only serious contenders in my eyes.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re: Re:

Every single one of the top GC contenders for this Giro has faults and could end up being the reason each one doesn't win. Froome has started his decline (saw that last year and nothing has indicated that was inaccurate). Dumoulin still can be dropped on tough climbs. Pinot has inconsistent problems esp with ITTs and the day after rest days. Aru is just flat out inconsistent. I have no clue what to expect from the Chaves/Yates duo. Lopez doesn't have much experience (although that does not mean he can't win it). Movistar is sending their 6th and 7th best GC riders. Betencur is well Betancur and he's not where near what his potential suggests he could be. Fernandez has been out with a stress fracture almost all season. He raced the Tour Down Under and didn't race again until this week at some small continental race. Then you have Slipstream sending Woods who could sneak up there, but he has an very outside shot at best.

I'm not sure how you figure that Froome is declining based on last year where he was the first to win two GT's in one season since 1998.

Real simple. Watch his racing, he was weaker, thus the start of a decline. Not that hard to figure out. If it wasn't for the Formigal stage the year before he'd have won the double that year in a much more convincing style. Also it's highly likely last year's Vuelta title will be stripped from him.

I've answered you in another part of the forum.

 

[HelloDolly]

Davide Formolo ????
EF Education are all riding for Michael Woods

 

[Koronin]

Re:

Davide Formolo ????
EF Education are all riding for Michael Woods

That's the take on it. However, it also wouldn't shock me if they go with an option A and B as they are good at doing.

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

Every single one of the top GC contenders for this Giro has faults and could end up being the reason each one doesn't win. Froome has started his decline (saw that last year and nothing has indicated that was inaccurate). Dumoulin still can be dropped on tough climbs. Pinot has inconsistent problems esp with ITTs and the day after rest days. Aru is just flat out inconsistent. I have no clue what to expect from the Chaves/Yates duo. Lopez doesn't have much experience (although that does not mean he can't win it). Movistar is sending their 6th and 7th best GC riders. Betencur is well Betancur and he's not where near what his potential suggests he could be. Fernandez has been out with a stress fracture almost all season. He raced the Tour Down Under and didn't race again until this week at some small continental race. Then you have Slipstream sending Woods who could sneak up there, but he has an very outside shot at best.

I'm not sure how you figure that Froome is declining based on last year where he was the first to win two GT's in one season since 1998.

Wishful thinking, that's all. And there is no need to come back to Angliru stage. He just did what had to do.

I don't understand what this means (the part of your post in bold).

 

[Stella0596]

Re:

Davide Formolo ????
EF Education are all riding for Michael Woods

He rides for Bora, not EF

 

[RattaKuningas]

I'd like to see Lopez win it.

 

[Laplaz]

Re: Re:

Davide Formolo ????
EF Education are all riding for Michael Woods

That's the take on it. However, it also wouldn't shock me if they go with an option A and B as they are good at doing.

You guys know he is riding for Bora right?

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re: Re:

Every single one of the top GC contenders for this Giro has faults and could end up being the reason each one doesn't win. Froome has started his decline (saw that last year and nothing has indicated that was inaccurate). Dumoulin still can be dropped on tough climbs. Pinot has inconsistent problems esp with ITTs and the day after rest days. Aru is just flat out inconsistent. I have no clue what to expect from the Chaves/Yates duo. Lopez doesn't have much experience (although that does not mean he can't win it). Movistar is sending their 6th and 7th best GC riders. Betencur is well Betancur and he's not where near what his potential suggests he could be. Fernandez has been out with a stress fracture almost all season. He raced the Tour Down Under and didn't race again until this week at some small continental race. Then you have Slipstream sending Woods who could sneak up there, but he has an very outside shot at best.

I'm not sure how you figure that Froome is declining based on last year where he was the first to win two GT's in one season since 1998.

Wishful thinking, that's all. And there is no need to come back to Angliru stage. He just did what had to do.

I don't understand what this means (the part of your post in bold).

Froome didn't have to fight for a win at Angliru stage. At some point he started with Poels to chase Contador, minimalized his losses, and it wasn't sign of his weakness.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Davide Formolo ????
EF Education are all riding for Michael Woods

That's the take on it. However, it also wouldn't shock me if they go with an option A and B as they are good at doing.

You guys know he is riding for Bora right?

LOL

 

[May0maniac]

I just had a premonition, Formolo will channel his inner Ivan Basso on the Zoncolan, you heard it here first!

 

[Netserk]

Chaves is my joker. I think he will end on the podium.

 

[hfer07]

Anybody except Froome

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

Davide Formolo ????
EF Education are all riding for Michael Woods

That's the take on it. However, it also wouldn't shock me if they go with an option A and B as they are good at doing.

You guys know he is riding for Bora right?

LOL

The joke isn't (not knowing) who he is riding for but that he is in the poll for wining the Giro

Mayeb you should laugh at that

Michael Woods is a far better contender as is George Bennett

 

[Parker]

Re:

My take:
- Froome is not as dominant as he was, not in the mountains, and not in the time trials. He builds on his consistency, his strong team and his ability to pace himself nowadays. That said, his consistency is a question mark with possible cold and wet weather, his team is also a question mark, and Dumoulin is also really good at pacing himself and profits from tempo (Sky) riding. Moreover, people here are forgetting that the pressure on him is immense, with the TUE case and the constant questions all year. This extra stress is not to be underestimated. I don't see him winning.
- Dumoulin: has shown nothing this year, but has had bad luck. His LBL was encouraging though. The rolling time trials suit him and Italy suits him. His team isn't very strong though and he may find himself isolated more than once. If he can keep his s**t together (haha!) he'll be difficult to beat though. My favourite.
- Lopez: should be the best climber, but weaker time trials and inconsistency will cause serious time loss.
- Pinot: all uphill mountain finishes should suit him. He's a fighter, but I think he'll loose too much time here and there to really challenge.
- Aru: if he's on form, he could actually win this. That said, he hasn't shown real form in over a year.

These are the only serious contenders in my eyes.

Chaves/Yates?

 

[jaylew]

Is everyone just picking who he wants to win, or how does Pinot get almost as many votes as Froome? He is a good podium pick because you know what you get, but win? I'd rate him as high as Aru in that regard and Aru has 2 votes.

Edit:

The pool's results are quite interesting.
But let's assume you've just got 1000 euro to make a bet with real money.
Are 22 of you going to bet that Pinot would be at the end of May Giro's winner?
I don't think so.

This

You have to consider that people may be including Froome's clinic issues here. It's very possible that he wins but then that win is passed on to someone else. In fact, I'd say this is the most likely scenario.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

My take:
- Froome is not as dominant as he was, not in the mountains, and not in the time trials. He builds on his consistency, his strong team and his ability to pace himself nowadays. That said, his consistency is a question mark with possible cold and wet weather, his team is also a question mark, and Dumoulin is also really good at pacing himself and profits from tempo (Sky) riding. Moreover, people here are forgetting that the pressure on him is immense, with the TUE case and the constant questions all year. This extra stress is not to be underestimated. I don't see him winning.
- Dumoulin: has shown nothing this year, but has had bad luck. His LBL was encouraging though. The rolling time trials suit him and Italy suits him. His team isn't very strong though and he may find himself isolated more than once. If he can keep his s**t together (haha!) he'll be difficult to beat though. My favourite.
- Lopez: should be the best climber, but weaker time trials and inconsistency will cause serious time loss.
- Pinot: all uphill mountain finishes should suit him. He's a fighter, but I think he'll loose too much time here and there to really challenge.
- Aru: if he's on form, he could actually win this. That said, he hasn't shown real form in over a year.

These are the only serious contenders in my eyes.

Chaves/Yates?

I couldn't have Lopez ahead of Aru, Pinot, Yates and Chaves. That said, they will all probably have the same problem : consistency. I think Froome and Dumoulin are the clear favourites. On form from a few years ago Aru and Chaves would be battling for the podium. I think one or two of these riders will probably have a bad day in the mountains and also lose big in the TTs, but I don't think it will be Froome or Dumoulin. The pressure for Froome will come more from riding the Giro where the weather can be extreme sometimes and riding such a race earlier in the season which is quite different to the Tour. Also is his climbing support as good as last year ?

I think if the court case bothered him that much, he would have withdrawn. Also having a fair chance of not riding the Tour could psyche him even more for the Giro. And if he does miss the Tour depending on the outcome of the enquiry and whether the Tour organizers will try to block his participation if the outcome is delayed, he still may be a chance of riding the Vuelta which is one of his favorite races. So he won't need any extra impetus to win the Giro. It will either be the only GT he starts this year or the possible first half of trying to do another double so Froome has plenty of motivation.

 

[Squire]

Re:

- Dumoulin: has shown nothing this year, but has had bad luck. His LBL was encouraging though. The rolling time trials suit him and Italy suits him. His team isn't very strong though and he may find himself isolated more than once. If he can keep his s**t together (haha!) he'll be difficult to beat though. My favourite.

I think Dumoulin's chances are a bit overrated this year.

One thing is the lack of form so far, but I think the route could give him problems. He'll probably be fine on the Zonc, but he has shown to be vulnerable in successive tough mountain stages. Even last year, he lost a minute on Piancavallo, and was somewhat saved by the tactics of the other GC contenders in the following stage to Asiago. And none of those stages were nearly as hard as the Jafferau and Cervinia stages this year. Those two stages could spell his doom if the 'real' climbers light it up.

 

[Tonton]

Is everyone just picking who he wants to win, or how does Pinot get almost as many votes as Froome? He is a good podium pick because you know what you get, but win? I'd rate him as high as Aru in that regard and Aru has 2 votes.

Edit:

The pool's results are quite interesting.
But let's assume you've just got 1000 euro to make a bet with real money.
Are 22 of you going to bet that Pinot would be at the end of May Giro's winner?
I don't think so.

This

Maybe because he won the most important preparation race with most favourites present while never looking stressed? Or because he was fourth last year only due to the TTs which are far shorter this year? Or because there are no descent finishes where he could lose time due to poor bike handling? Maybe even because he has proven to be rather consistent and capable of winning bonus seconds in small group sprints? These were my reasons at least. Porte is second favourite for the Tour in the equivalent poll each year and has done far less to justify it.
Also, it's a bit boring to vote for the odds on favourite and then come around in the end with "I told you.."

This .

 

[Tonton]

Big ...the final poll last year...

Quintana 60
Nibali 17
Pinot 13
Crushweak 8
Yates and Other 5
Landa 4
Thomas 3
Dumoulin 2...

We got 2-3-4 in the right order...but we sucked . Las Vegas sucked too.

 

[Breh]

I hope Kruijswijk never gets a decent result again so I won't have to deal with that horrible nickname anymore.