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Who will win the Giro?

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Who wins the Maglia Rosa?

  • Chaves

    Votes: 1 0.9%

  • Dumoulin

    Votes: 1 0.9%

  • Nibali

    Votes: 41 36.0%

  • Pozzovivo

    Votes: 2 1.8%

  • Landa

    Votes: 32 28.1%

  • Zakarin

    Votes: 9 7.9%

  • Valverde

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • Uran

    Votes: 5 4.4%

  • Majka

    Votes: 3 2.6%

  • Other

    Votes: 2 1.8%
  • Total voters
    114
  • Poll closed .
DBotero

DBotero

Mar 14, 2015
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Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Very well.. I just think the competition was very weak in 2013, as it was in 2014, but I'll give him 2014.

Im not disputing he is a better GC-rider than Landa,he is, but to me, Landa has that wow-factor in the mountains, he is a natural. Think of all the erratic climbers in the past. Many people will still claim its all too early and will still be critical of his Giro last year, but the fact of the matter is that he without a doubt was the strongest in the mountains - Aru and Contador are no scrubs.
Click to expand...

That's a weak argument.It was used extensively here to diminish Wiggins win,than against Nibali.Nibali 2013 almost made the double,the 2014 one had the numbers of Froome.He certainly had the wow-factor during those GT's delivering a lot of entertainment,kinda unexpected from him considering his Vuelta win.
 
SeriousSam

SeriousSam

Aug 31, 2012
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Here's what the market has to say thus far (bet365, not adjusted for overround)

uoowCAT.png



edt: included zaka
 
Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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What information do you have about the market? Is it fair to assume that there is an over representation of Italians and that they as a group are more biased towards Italian riders? What is the liquidity?

Obviously, the market is irrational, to a certain degree, but it is interesting to examine if it's of a more unbalanced nature.
 
carton

carton

Aug 4, 2014
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My take, as of this moment:

Favorites: You're in this group if you need to muster up your form from two years, twelve months, or twenty hours ago
Nibali Landa Zakarin

Contenders: Your're in this group if you're a good climber who needs to be great in order to win it
Valverde Uran Majka Chaves Dumoulin

Dark Horses: You're in this group if your last name has more consonants than vowels
Kruijswijk Pozzovivo Fuglsang Firsanov Hesjedal

Unless someone takes some major, unexpected gaps, I get the feeling the time trial will only muddy the picture.
 
gregrowlerson

gregrowlerson

Aug 6, 2010
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Re:

carton said:
My take, as of this moment:

Favorites: You're in this group if you need to muster up your form from two years, twelve months, or twenty hours ago
Nibali Landa Zakarin

Contenders: Your're in this group if you're a good climber who needs to be great in order to win it
Valverde Uran Majka Chaves Dumoulin

Dark Horses: You're in this group if your last name has more consonants than vowels
Kruijswijk Pozzovivo Fuglsang Firsanov Hesjedal

Unless someone takes some major, unexpected gaps, I get the feeling the time trial will only muddy the picture.
Click to expand...

Such a smirk-inducing post :D
 
Mr.White

Mr.White

Mar 13, 2015
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Re:

staubsauger said:
Hope says Kruijswijk.
Heart says Landa.
Mind says Zakarocket.

Let's wait what Nibali & Valverde tell in the end.
Click to expand...

Heart says Valverde, mind says Nibali. But both, heart and mind are little afraid of Landa ;)
 
SeriousSam

SeriousSam

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Re: Re:

Gigs_98 said:
This is a perfect example why betting odds dont show who will most likely to win because dumoulin was definitely never more likely to win than valverde
Click to expand...

Your reasoning here is akin to rejecting the notion that a coin had a 50% chance to land heads because it landed tails.
 
CheckMyPecs

CheckMyPecs

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Re: Re:

SeriousSam said:
Gigs_98 said:
This is a perfect example why betting odds dont show who will most likely to win because dumoulin was definitely never more likely to win than valverde
Click to expand...

Your reasoning here is akin to rejecting the notion that a coin had a 50% chance to land heads because it landed tails.
Click to expand...
Nah, even before yesterday it was obvious Valverde was much more likely to win the Giro than Dumoulin, even if only because one has a monster team and the other rides with a bunch of losers.
 
SeriousSam

SeriousSam

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Re: Re:

CheckMyPecs said:
SeriousSam said:
Gigs_98 said:
This is a perfect example why betting odds dont show who will most likely to win because dumoulin was definitely never more likely to win than valverde
Click to expand...

Your reasoning here is akin to rejecting the notion that a coin had a 50% chance to land heads because it landed tails.
Click to expand...
Nah, even before yesterday it was obvious Valverde was much more likely to win the Giro than Dumoulin, even if only because one has a monster team and the other rides with a bunch of losers.
Click to expand...
Perhaps it was. If you were regularly producing predictions that fit the data better than the odds I would be more inclined to believe you.

The key point I'm making, though, is that a small number of data points isn't a lot of information with which to evaluate probabilistic predictions. Especially not if we're dealing with probabilities like 5% or 20%.


Netserk said:
What information do you have about the market? Is it fair to assume that there is an over representation of Italians and that they as a group are more biased towards Italian riders? What is the liquidity?

Obviously, the market is irrational, to a certain degree, but it is interesting to examine if it's of a more unbalanced nature.
Click to expand...
I don't have any data on bettor composition. According to odds-checker, Nibali is the most backed contender and as I said, I haven't corrected for overround so better odds than the ones in the graph are almost certainly lower for Nibali and Landa.

Liquidity is always bad in cycling compared to other sports, you can check out the amount matched, the bid-ask spread and the recent volume on betfair.
 
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