Who will win the Giro?

[DBotero]

Re:

Very well.. I just think the competition was very weak in 2013, as it was in 2014, but I'll give him 2014.

Im not disputing he is a better GC-rider than Landa,he is, but to me, Landa has that wow-factor in the mountains, he is a natural. Think of all the erratic climbers in the past. Many people will still claim its all too early and will still be critical of his Giro last year, but the fact of the matter is that he without a doubt was the strongest in the mountains - Aru and Contador are no scrubs.

That's a weak argument.It was used extensively here to diminish Wiggins win,than against Nibali.Nibali 2013 almost made the double,the 2014 one had the numbers of Froome.He certainly had the wow-factor during those GT's delivering a lot of entertainment,kinda unexpected from him considering his Vuelta win.

 

[SeriousSam]

Here's what the market has to say thus far (bet365, not adjusted for overround)

edt: included zaka

 

[Red Rick]

You're leaving out some interesting riders there. How did Zaka change?

 

[markene2]

Fuglsang to take second behind Zakarin!

 

[SeriousSam]

The markets (bet365, betfair) have regained confidence in Vincenzo!

 

[Netserk]

What information do you have about the market? Is it fair to assume that there is an over representation of Italians and that they as a group are more biased towards Italian riders? What is the liquidity?

Obviously, the market is irrational, to a certain degree, but it is interesting to examine if it's of a more unbalanced nature.

 

[carton]

My take, as of this moment:

Favorites: You're in this group if you need to muster up your form from two years, twelve months, or twenty hours ago
Nibali Landa Zakarin

Contenders: Your're in this group if you're a good climber who needs to be great in order to win it
Valverde Uran Majka Chaves Dumoulin

Dark Horses: You're in this group if your last name has more consonants than vowels
Kruijswijk Pozzovivo Fuglsang Firsanov Hesjedal

Unless someone takes some major, unexpected gaps, I get the feeling the time trial will only muddy the picture.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

My take, as of this moment:

Favorites: You're in this group if you need to muster up your form from two years, twelve months, or twenty hours ago
Nibali Landa Zakarin

Contenders: Your're in this group if you're a good climber who needs to be great in order to win it
Valverde Uran Majka Chaves Dumoulin

Dark Horses: You're in this group if your last name has more consonants than vowels
Kruijswijk Pozzovivo Fuglsang Firsanov Hesjedal

Unless someone takes some major, unexpected gaps, I get the feeling the time trial will only muddy the picture.

Such a smirk-inducing post

 

[Escarabajo]

Why Zakarin is such a high favorite with the bookies is beyond me. It is an unproven rider for a GT high placing. The rest are fine.

 

[staubsauger]

Hope says Kruijswijk.
Heart says Landa.
Mind says Zakarocket.

Let's wait what Nibali & Valverde tell in the end.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Betting markets are not an oracle.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Hope says Kruijswijk.
Heart says Landa.
Mind says Zakarocket.

Let's wait what Nibali & Valverde tell in the end.

Heart says Valverde, mind says Nibali. But both, heart and mind are little afraid of Landa

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Here's what the market has to say thus far (bet365, not adjusted for overround)

edt: included zaka

This is a perfect example why betting odds dont show who will most likely to win because dumoulin was definitely never more likely to win than valverde

 

[Carols]

Nibali for the overall win, Valverde to podium.

Landa gets his hopes crushed today.....

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

This is a perfect example why betting odds dont show who will most likely to win because dumoulin was definitely never more likely to win than valverde

Your reasoning here is akin to rejecting the notion that a coin had a 50% chance to land heads because it landed tails.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: Re:

This is a perfect example why betting odds dont show who will most likely to win because dumoulin was definitely never more likely to win than valverde

Your reasoning here is akin to rejecting the notion that a coin had a 50% chance to land heads because it landed tails.

Nah, even before yesterday it was obvious Valverde was much more likely to win the Giro than Dumoulin, even if only because one has a monster team and the other rides with a bunch of losers.

 

[Netserk]

Dumoulegend has an edge with his TT and showed good form on the first mtf. Valverde is much more likely to beat him, but was more unlikely to beat everyone else than Tom was.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Landa really needs to start showing something at this point.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Landa really needs to start showing something at this point.

Well it won't be today.

 

[Carols]

Re:

Nibali for the overall win, Valverde to podium.

Landa gets his hopes crushed today.....

Well it looks like the Sky Magic is working yet again.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

This is a perfect example why betting odds dont show who will most likely to win because dumoulin was definitely never more likely to win than valverde

Your reasoning here is akin to rejecting the notion that a coin had a 50% chance to land heads because it landed tails.

Nah, even before yesterday it was obvious Valverde was much more likely to win the Giro than Dumoulin, even if only because one has a monster team and the other rides with a bunch of losers.

Perhaps it was. If you were regularly producing predictions that fit the data better than the odds I would be more inclined to believe you.

The key point I'm making, though, is that a small number of data points isn't a lot of information with which to evaluate probabilistic predictions. Especially not if we're dealing with probabilities like 5% or 20%.

What information do you have about the market? Is it fair to assume that there is an over representation of Italians and that they as a group are more biased towards Italian riders? What is the liquidity?

Obviously, the market is irrational, to a certain degree, but it is interesting to examine if it's of a more unbalanced nature.

I don't have any data on bettor composition. According to odds-checker, Nibali is the most backed contender and as I said, I haven't corrected for overround so better odds than the ones in the graph are almost certainly lower for Nibali and Landa.

Liquidity is always bad in cycling compared to other sports, you can check out the amount matched, the bid-ask spread and the recent volume on betfair.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Dumoulegend has an edge with his TT and showed good form on the first mtf. Valverde is much more likely to beat him, but was more unlikely to beat everyone else than Tom was.

I still think Valverde was more likely to win after that stage but yeah, objectively that makes sense.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: Re:

Well it looks like the Sky Magic is working yet again.

Tin-foil hats on?

 

[Pippo_San]

If you're not on the Zaka-bandwagon it's likely you'll be crushed...

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

Well it looks like the Sky Magic is working yet again.

Tin-foil hats on?

Gotta keep the Muck Off.