Who will win the Giro?

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

I think that we can probably Rule out Zakarin, Majka, Chaves and Uran after today regardless of who we think will win

Uran & Chavez definitely out. Majka and Zaka still have about 5% of winning.

Uran yes.

I wouldn't rule Chavez out - he's looked like one of the strongest climbers and he's very much in striking distance time wise. Would obviously be an upset, but he just looks strong to me. I reckon he'll be in a elite 2-3-4 man selection alongside Nibbles and Valverde at the finale of the next big climbing stage. If I was one of those two, I'd be most worried about Chaves.

Majka looks good too. Not sure about Zakarin.

 

[Winkin' boy]

Re: Re:

I think that we can probably Rule out Zakarin, Majka, Chaves and Uran after today regardless of who we think will win

Uran & Chavez definitely out. Majka and Zaka still have about 5% of winning.

Was anybody actually thinking Uran or Chaves could win the Giro? both were podium chances at best and well the same could be said about Majka and Zakarin

See the pool results. Uran+Zaka+Chavez+Majka have 16%...

Uran and Chavez are already done.
Zakarin did terrible ITT and still lost "only" about 1'30" to Landa, Nibali and Valverde.
Majka did ITT as usually, nothing special. He was taking about fireworks in 3rd week, so we can give him some credit.

 

[Hgriffiths2606]

I would like to whole-heartedly apologise for being so wrong about Landa's form it would appear that his illness has got the better of him and I'm sure he'll salvage his season somewhere along the line, I maintain that he will win the Giro at some point but this year is not his year sadly.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I think that we can probably Rule out Zakarin, Majka, Chaves and Uran after today regardless of who we think will win

I am waiting on your next prediction so I can bet the other direction!

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I would like to whole-heartedly apologise for being so wrong about Landa's form it would appear that his illness has got the better of him and I'm sure he'll salvage his season somewhere along the line, I maintain that he will win the Giro at some point but this year is not his year sadly.

Actually that is very brave of you.

Having said that Landa still needs to prove with more than one showing on GC of a GT. So does Chaves.

 

[Arredondo]

With Landa out, Nibali is the likely winner. But it also depends on the climbing form of Bala above 2000 meter.

If they cancell those stages due to bad weather, then Valverde can win this Giro.

I hope Kruiswijk, Hesjedal and Zaka will go full *** in the third week.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

With Landa out, Nibali is the likely winner. But it also depends on the climbing form of Bala above 2000 meter.

If they cancell those stages due to bad weather, then Valverde can win this Giro.

I hope Kruiswijk, Hesjedal and Zaka will go full *** in the third week.

Zombie Ryder will rise again in the 3rd week.
Yeah, I don't think that Valverde will be a legit thread to Nibali in the high mountains.
Maybe Pozzovivo will surprise everyone and finally get a Giro podium, that would be awesome.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Irony is despite Landa dropping out, who was by far the favourite at this point, if Nibali were to win this, it would still be bigger competition than any of his other GT wins.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Chaves is also still looking good. He's not that far behind is he?

 

[Red Rick]

I don't see Valverde holding on, and certainly not if the weather were to take a turn for the worse. Gaps are all really small right now

 

[Laplaz]

The likes of Chavez, Majka and Co. should have attacked today or at least they should friday or saturday. In the third week they don't stand a chance against Nibali.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

The likes of Chavez, Majka and Co. should have attacked today or at least they should friday or saturday. In the third week they don't stand a chance against Nibali.

If anything that is actually where they stand a chance. I cannot comment on Chavez as he hasn't proven too much in a GT besides last year, but it's pretty evident from previous years that Majka only gets better along the way. A stage like today is by no means a good stage for Majka to gain time. A descent (which Majka is notoriously bad at) followed by an easy, gentle climb to Sestola are not optimal in Majka's case.

 

[yaco]

Will be interesting to see how Chavez and the other Colombians ride in the high altitude in the next two weeks. The upcoming climbs are at high altitude which may benefit some riders.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Irony is despite Landa dropping out, who was by far the favourite at this point, if Nibali were to win this, it would still be bigger competition than any of his other GT wins.

Wait a moment. Valverde can still finish 4th.

 

[Kokoso]

I hope not Jamajka.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

The likes of Chavez, Majka and Co. should have attacked today or at least they should friday or saturday. In the third week they don't stand a chance against Nibali.

If anything that is actually where they stand a chance. I cannot comment on Chavez as he hasn't proven too much in a GT besides last year, but it's pretty evident from previous years that Majka only gets better along the way. A stage like today is by no means a good stage for Majka to gain time. A descent (which Majka is notoriously bad at) followed by an easy, gentle climb to Sestola are not optimal in Majka's case.

I swear in the last giro he did (2014) his best week was by far the second week and capitulated quite badly in the third, although that may have been due to illness.

 

[dick the quick]

Re: Re:

The likes of Chavez, Majka and Co. should have attacked today or at least they should friday or saturday. In the third week they don't stand a chance against Nibali.

I cannot comment on Chavez as he hasn't proven too much in a GT besides last year, but it's pretty evident from previous years that Majka only gets better along the way. A stage like today is by no means a good stage for Majka to gain time. A descent (which Majka is notoriously bad at) followed by an easy, gentle climb to Sestola are not optimal in Majka's case.

True. Bad news for him is that most of the remaining high mountain stages is designed more or less in similar way (descent + a short climb to the finish). Yesterday once again he was looking well on the climb, but at the end of the day he lost a couple of seconds to Valverde, unable to follow him at the sprint to the finish line.

For me, Nibali remains no. 1 favourite to wear maglia rosa in Turin. Should be a nice battle for places 2-5 between Valverde, Kruijswijk, Majka, Zakarin and Amador (?).

 

[Netserk]

No update on the odds, SeriousSam?

 

[SeriousSam]

Didn't track Crushweak from the beginning unfortunately so I'm going to leave him off for now. He's a bit more likely to win than Majka and Zakarin.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Nibali still has to show more.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Nibali still has to show more.

Not really. At this pace he just have to follow wheels and wait for Valverde to crack in one of the mountains like he usually has.

Having said that it is not Nibali's nature. If he feels good he will attack. That is a given. He is the main favorite now.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: Re:

Nibali still has to show more.

Not really. At this pace he just have to follow wheels and wait for Valverde to crack in one of the mountains like he usually has.

Having said that it is not Nibali's nature. If he feels good he will attack. That is a given. He is the main favorite now.

Valverde hasn't cracked hard on a mountain day in 8 years. It's been a very long time since he had a really bad day in a grand tour.

I'm not confident of Nibali having the legs, really. This is going to be close, and it's probably going to come down to the dumb luck of who happens to have a good day on a hard stage. Quite possibly Sunday.

 

[dacooley]

Nibs - 60%, Bala - 35%, all the others - 5%

 

[Valv.Piti]

Im pretty confident after today that Valverde will win. Always thought it was Landa's Giro, but now that he is gone, something tells me Valverde is on top of this race. Nibali is the favourite, but I still have doubts.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Nibali still has to show more.

Not really. At this pace he just have to follow wheels and wait for Valverde to crack in one of the mountains like he usually has.

Having said that it is not Nibali's nature. If he feels good he will attack. That is a given. He is the main favorite now.

Valverde hasn't cracked hard on a mountain day in 8 years. It's been a very long time since he had a really bad day in a grand tour.

I'm not confident of Nibali having the legs, really. This is going to be close, and it's probably going to come down to the dumb luck of who happens to have a good day on a hard stage. Quite possibly Sunday.

He cracked a bit on the Hautacam but yeah, that wasn't a really bad day. Sunday is overrated, it's only going to be crucial if someone cracks on stage 14.