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Who will win the Giro?

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Who wins the Maglia Rosa?

  • Chaves

    Votes: 1 0.9%

  • Dumoulin

    Votes: 1 0.9%

  • Nibali

    Votes: 41 36.0%

  • Pozzovivo

    Votes: 2 1.8%

  • Landa

    Votes: 32 28.1%

  • Zakarin

    Votes: 9 7.9%

  • Valverde

    Votes: 18 15.8%

  • Uran

    Votes: 5 4.4%

  • Majka

    Votes: 3 2.6%

  • Other

    Votes: 2 1.8%
  • Total voters
    114
  • Poll closed .
hrotha

hrotha

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You're using a different definition of 'crack' (a nonstandard one, I'd wager; but I'm not sure). The way GuyIncognito used it, it doesn't mean "showed weakness and was dropped", it means "completely blew up".

Indurain cracked on Les Arcs. He blew up and was dropped by many riders who had no business dropping him.
Indurain didn't crack on Sestriere. Riis merely dropped him, but he still performed at the presumed level of a contender.
 
GuyIncognito

GuyIncognito

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Re:

hrotha said:
You're using a different definition of 'crack' (a nonstandard one, I'd wager; but I'm not sure). The way GuyIncognito used it, it doesn't mean "showed weakness and was dropped", it means "completely blew up".

Indurain cracked on Les Arcs. He blew up and was dropped by many riders who had no business dropping him.
Indurain didn't crack on Sestriere. Riis merely dropped him, but he still performed at the presumed level of a contender.
Click to expand...

Exactly. Who the hell uses 'crack' in any other way???
 
staubsauger

staubsauger

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Re:

Miburo said:
This is Kruiswijk's chance to win the giro. Nibali and piti aren't reliable in the high mountains, he can win this.
Click to expand...
The thing is, he has no team. Normally he needs to give it a go in the Dolomites. But he might have a hard time on the way to Risoul in that case. We know that LottoNL has a history of being quite conservative in gt's except of The Chicken. Let's hope he just tries his luck tomorrow to find out if he's really got the shape to win the Giro. If, if he's able to diesel away from Nibali and Valverde on the Pordoi Pass the mtt up towards Seiser Alm should favor him as well.
 
StryderHells

StryderHells

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Re:

Miburo said:
This is Kruiswijk's chance to win the giro. Nibali and piti aren't reliable in the high mountains, he can win this.
Click to expand...

How do we know that Nibali or even Valverde aren't reliable in the high mountains? They both look good so far. I do agree that this would be Kruiswijk's best chance to win a GT having lost no time early in the race like he has done in the past
 
carton

carton

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Re: Re:

hrotha said:
You're using a different definition of 'crack' (a nonstandard one, I'd wager; but I'm not sure). The way GuyIncognito used it, it doesn't mean "showed weakness and was dropped", it means "completely blew up".

Indurain cracked on Les Arcs. He blew up and was dropped by many riders who had no business dropping him.
Indurain didn't crack on Sestriere. Riis merely dropped him, but he still performed at the presumed level of a contender.
Click to expand...
Those are three different things, IMHO. One is hitting the wall, completely blowing up, a la Cadel at Passo Coe. Another is getting dropped by a someone who is better on that day, say Quintana by Froome at LPSM or vice-versa at La Toussuire or Alpe d'Huez. Cracking, or having a jour sans, includes that first definition but is not limited to it. You crack if you have a bad day where several guys who aren't quite at your level ride away from your underperforming legs. If that's 50 guys, then you've blown up spectacularly, but if it's 10 guys, like Valverde at Risoul or Hautacam, then you still cracked. I'm sorry, but if you're in it to win it Laurens Ten Dam shouldn't be dropping you. You may not have shattered into a million pieces, but you've cracked. That's no dig on Laurens, he seems like a swell guy and is ten times the bike rider I'll ever be. But YMMV, as you've stated, people use words to mean different things. Latter-day Wittgenstein and all that. I wasn't particularly knocking Guy's definition, but I was amused by the rather diplomatic phrasing, which I will keep in my back pocket for the future. :D

BTW, I'm not sure Valverde is going to have a jour sans (I hope we can agree on that terminology) at this Giro. He was pretty good and pretty consistent at the Tour last year. But it wouldn't surprise me.
 
A

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Oliwright said:
From what we have seen so far it is going to be very close between Nibali and Valverde.
Mountain TT could decide it, both have appeared equal so far!
Click to expand...

10 km MTT will not produce more than 20 seconds gap IMO.
If the stage to Sant Anna is raced like on paper, it will produce more.
 
Miburo

Miburo

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Re: Re:

StryderHells said:
Miburo said:
This is Kruiswijk's chance to win the giro. Nibali and piti aren't reliable in the high mountains, he can win this.
Click to expand...

How do we know that Nibali or even Valverde aren't reliable in the high mountains? They both look good so far. I do agree that this would be Kruiswijk's best chance to win a GT having lost no time early in the race like he has done in the past
Click to expand...

The past has proven that it's pretty likely piti and nibali at least have one day where they can lose 2 min orso. That's of course to the likes of froome and contador.

And we haven't really seen high mountains in the giro. Tbh only last 2 days are the real high mountains
 
hrotha

hrotha

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It's obvious that Nibali isn't in top shape. It's also obvious that Movistar are determined to allow him to get into top shape without trying to put any time on him.

Therefore, this subpar Nibali (and yes, he's been very subpar for his standards, including today) should win this Giro easily.
 
May0maniac

May0maniac

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Re:

hrotha said:
It's obvious that Nibali isn't in top shape. It's also obvious that Movistar are determined to allow him to get into top shape without trying to put any time on him.

Therefore, this subpar Nibali (and yes, he's been very subpar for his standards, including today) should win this Giro easily.
Click to expand...
This!
 
V

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Re:

hrotha said:
It's obvious that Nibali isn't in top shape. It's also obvious that Movistar are determined to allow him to get into top shape without trying to put any time on him.

Therefore, this subpar Nibali (and yes, he's been very subpar for his standards, including today) should win this Giro easily.
Click to expand...

Nibali is not subpar.....he is riding a great race. He is conserving energy but can still put on a burst when he likes - as seen when he outsprinted Valverde to the line at the end of the stage. Importantly his team is doing great -the shark is riding well within himself. He's only 41 seconds off pink and I wouldn't be surprised to see him take the pink during the next stage. You can clearly see if you watch the race all the other riders are wary of him and watch what he does - I would say rather than subpar Nibali is infact owning the race.
 
hrotha

hrotha

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None of that contradicts what I said.

Anyway, he outsprinted Valverde because Piti half-arsed it - he didn't even know bonus seconds were on the line. Nibali looked decidedly average when he attacked, and he hasn't looked any better in previous stages (in fact, he is improving, but still not quite there).
 
T

TheRossSeaParty

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Kruijswijk for the win. Reminds me of Giro 2012, they could have gotten rid of Hesjedal really early but no one paid him notice in the first mountain stages, he didn't lost his customary 5mins in the opening week (and he is a guy who gets better and better as the race goes on) and ended up winning the whole thing. Kruijswijk has been similar in past editions, and now he is in a really good place on GC, the big mountains are ahead, and he will destroy everyone! Or I hope so, to show that you can't ride defensively in the opening week of a GC.
 
carton

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