Who will win the Giro?

[Kwibus]

Re:

I'm still picking Nibali just because of the been there done that factor. That and his strong team.

Kruiswijk looks good but maybe the fact he's not started slow means he won't finish as strongly too.

That's a tough call indeed. Allthough Kruiswijk says that last year he was feeling just fine the first week, but he was simply not well positioned when the race was ripped apart. He wasn't the leader then, he had to do his own positioning etc.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I think this just amplifies how unlucky Landa was to go out because he'd be tearing this apart if he was half-sober never mind on top form

He lacked some miles this year. So I am not sure if it was a sure bet. Not only that he only had one good performance in 1 GT. So he needs to prove this result more than once.

 

[Hgriffiths2606]

I don't want to write a clinic-worthy post but really Gazprom? Really? Nothing in the whole race and then this make what yoh will of it

 

[MatParker117]

Not even in the poll.

 

[Arredondo]

Giro winner comes from the Netherlands. That's for sure.

Hopefully he wins a big mountain stage to confirm his GT-victory.

 

[IndianCyclist]

The 3 main favorites have gotten themselves out of contention. Surprising Giro

 

[sir fly]

Kruiswijk is the strongest of the GC contenders. It's a fact after this weekend.
Nibali has the strongest team and ambitious (to put it that way) manager, but he hasn't got the legs.
Chaves could exploit the situation where Astana and Movi(?) pressurize Jumbo.

It isn't over, but Kruiswijk is in firm control and it'll depend on his condition.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re:

I don't want to write a clinic-worthy post but really Gazprom? Really? Nothing in the whole race and then this make what yoh will of it

You do know that this thread is called 'Who will win the Giro?', don't you? A Gazprom rider won't.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Giro winner comes from the Netherlands. That's for sure.

Hopefully he wins a big mountain stage to confirm his GT-victory.

Don't be too optimistic. Purito also was the strongest climber and leading the gc in the vuelta 2012

Kruijswijk is the big favorite now, but it isnt over yet.

 

[Valv.Piti]

We have had one proper mountain stage so far and Kruijswijk and Chaves proved to be the strongest while Nibali was close. Then, today, we all know what happened.

Nothing is over. Stage 16 and 18 are tricky, but the real time will have to be gained on the two last days. We all know Nibali will attack and we know that Majka won't. The rest, Chaves, Valverde and Zakarin is still up in the air.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

I don't want to write a clinic-worthy post but really Gazprom? Really? Nothing in the whole race and then this make what yoh will of it

You do know that this thread is called 'Who will win the Giro?', don't you? A Gazprom rider won't.

You never know.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

I don't want to write a clinic-worthy post but really Gazprom? Really? Nothing in the whole race and then this make what yoh will of it

I don't want to swear, but that was a goddam' good race by Foliforov!

 

[Tonton]

Still a lot of racing to take place, but with that kind of a lead, SK is clearly the favorite now. When I got up this morning, I would never have expected this...

 

[Põhja Konn]

Up until today I thought Nibali will win it. He still can, but from now on its very much an outside chance. Kruijswijk has a good lead, and neither Nibali nor Chaves have a strong teammate up in the GC to use as a foil to tire him out like Aru and Landa did with Contador last year. The problem is, Nibali doesn't look like he is improving during the race like last years Tour, and his current level is not good enough to win this Giro. Chaves is only one who is matching Kruijswijks climbing, or is even a bit stronger, but I can't see him taking all the time back alone. He needs alliances for that, but no-one seem to be strong enough to be a useful ally.

Also, if Valverde starts riding for podium, his team effectively helps Lotto-Jumbo to control the race.So, basically it is Kruijswijks race to lose, but you never know what can happen in the third week of a GT

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Kruiswijk is the strongest of the GC contenders. It's a fact after this weekend.
Nibali has the strongest team and ambitious (to put it that way) manager, but he hasn't got the legs.
Chaves could exploit the situation where Astana and Movi(?) pressurize Jumbo.

It isn't over, but Kruiswijk is in firm control and it'll depend on his condition.

Agree. My fellow dutchies really need to stop cheering to early.
It's just 2 minutes.

 

[Rollthedice]

There is plenty of parcours left to make huge gaps, Nibali is unpredictable in actions and shape, Steven has yet to prove he can handle the leader situation, Valverde is on the mend, Chaves looks fresh and there are 2 strong teams that can wreak havoc if they play it smart. It is still open.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Kruiswijk is the strongest of the GC contenders. It's a fact after this weekend.
Nibali has the strongest team and ambitious (to put it that way) manager, but he hasn't got the legs.
Chaves could exploit the situation where Astana and Movi(?) pressurize Jumbo.

It isn't over, but Kruiswijk is in firm control and it'll depend on his condition.

Agree. My fellow dutchies really need to stop cheering to early.
It's just 2 minutes.

Better to be 2 minutes ahead than 2 minutes behind

 

[SeriousSam]

 

[Vass43]

I thought Nibali looked good early (and he did) but that TT yesterday was concerning. I'm not writing him off completely as yet, as it is a Giro and anything can happen. He's going to need some luck now though - still a week to go and he shouldn't (and wont) give up but honestly something pretty dramatic would have to happen to Kruiswijk. If it does though hes still a chance - write of the shark at your own peril.....

 

[Jspear]

Wow! Who would've guessed Nibali would have dropped after today!

 

[movingtarget]

The leader has a good gap and is riding confidently but the third week is always tricky and fatigue and recovery play a big part. SK has to crack badly to lose it or Chaves or Nibali have to do something exceptional and Nibali does not seem to be in that kind of form. I tend to think that the current positions will stay the same. If anyone is going to be a joker it will probably be Chaves. Colombians and mountains seem to be a good match. I am sure he will test SK but whether he can break him is another matter.

 

[staubsauger]

Kruijswijk seems to be the better pure climber right now, though. Since Chaves has become more of a punchy climber. Especially the Risoul stage should favor Kruijswijk on paper. Since he ain't got any problems with altitude in the past. Rabobank / Belkin / LottoNL regulary wents to Sierra Nevada and / or Teide for years now.

 

[SeriousSam]

Wow! Who would've guessed Nibali would have dropped after today!

To appreciate some of the richness of information depicted in that graph, and probability more generally, try guessing the magnitude of the changes when next something important happens at the Giro!

 

[Valv.Piti]

Wow! Who would've guessed Nibali would have dropped after today!

To appreciate some of the richness of information depicted in that graph, and probability more generally, try guessing the magnitude of the changes when next something important happens at the Giro!

But Sam, its too easy to predict what will unfold on a stage and win money in doing so. Its no fun winning huge amounts of money.

 

[Cookster15]

9 Poll options posted on May 5 and Kruijswijk not even listed as a possible winner at that time. This Giro is Kruijswijk's to lose. I think Nibali is his only genuine remaining rival but he does not seem to have absolute peak form this year so I doubt he could produce the needed attack and make it stick. Kruijswijk probably can only lose if he cracks. That's looking increasingly unlikely though.